ملاحظات | قوة الاقتصاد: كيف يُغيِّر جيل جديد من الاقتصاديين العالم

تمهيد

(1)

Letter of Alfred Marshall to C. R. Fay, February 23, 1915, in Arthur C. Pigou, ed., Memorials of Alfred Marshall (London: Macmillan, 1925), 489-490.

(2)

John Maynard Keynes, Essays in Persuasion (New York: W. W. Norton, 1963 [1931]), 366-367.

مقدمة

(1)

Diane Coyle, The Soulful Science: What Economists Really Do and Why It Matters (Princeton University Press, 2007), 232.

(2)

Friedrich A. Hayek, “The Pretence of Knowledge,” Nobel Prize Lecture (December 11, 1974).

(3)

Robert J. Barro, “Cut Taxes,” Wall Street Journal (November 21, 1991).

(4)

Herbert Stein, “The Age of Ignorance,” Wall Street Journal (June 11, 1993).

(5)

Paul Krugman, Peddling Prosperity (New York: W. W. Norton, 1994), 9, 24. His previous book, The Age of Diminishing Expectations, came out in the early 1990s, just when Third World nations began throwing off socialism and Marxism, and sensed rising expectations for the first time. The decade of the 1990s turned out to be an explosion in economic and stock market growth.

(6)

J-B. Say, A Treatise on Political Economy, 4th ed. (New York: Augustus M. Kelly, 1971 [1880]), xxi, xxxv.

(7)

Arjo Klamer and David Colander, The Making of an Economist (Boulder, Colorado: Westview, 1990), xv.

(8)

Richard A. Posner, Law and Literature, 2nd ed. (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1998), 182.

(9)

Gary S. Becker and Guity Nashat Becker, The Economics of Life (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1997), 3.

الجزء الأول: الماليات الشخصية

الفصل الأول: اقتصاديٌّ يكتشف طريقة سهلة لمضاعفة معدل مدخراتك ثلاث مرات

(1)

Testimony of Richard H. Thaler, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, before the U.S. Senate Panel, Helping Americans Save, March 10, 2004.

(2)

“Living on Borrowed Time,” The Economist (November 6, 1999).

(3)

See Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel and Luis Servén, eds., The Economics of Saving and Growth (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999).

(4)

N. Greg Mankiw, Macroeconomics, 2nd ed. (New York: Worth Publishers, 1994), 86.

(5)

Dawn Kopecki, “Wrestling for the 401(k) Purse,” BusinessWeek (September 10, 2007), 60.

(6)

References to “animal spirits” and “waves of irrational psychology” can be found in John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (New York: Macmillan, 1973 [1936]), 161-162.

(7)

Robert Shiller, Irrational Exuberance (Princeton University Press, 2000), 142.

(8)

Ludwig von Mises, Theory and History (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1957), 268. However, Mises refuses to call bad decisions “irrational.” He states, “Error, inefficiency, and failure must not be confused with irrationality. He who shoots wants, as a rule, to hit the mark. If he misses it, he is not ‘irrational,’ he is a poor marksman.”

(9)

Israel M. Kirzner, “Economics and Error” in Perception, Opportunity, and Profit (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1979), 135.

(10)

Mark and Jo Ann Skousen, High Finance on a Low Budget (Chicago: Dearborn, 1994), Mark Skousen’s 30-Day Plan for Financial Independence (Washington, D. C.: Regnery, 1998).

الفصل الثاني: نظرية المحفظة الاستثمارية الحديثة

(1)

Burton G. Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 5th ed. (New York: Norton, 1990), 24.

(2)

Warren Buffett, “Remarks,” Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report (1988).

(3)

Jack D. Schwager, The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America’s Top Traders (New York: Collins, 1994).

(4)

Jack D. Schwager, Stock Market Wizards: Interviews with America’s Top Stock Market Traders (New York: Collins, 2003).

الفصل الثالث: نعم، يمكنك التغلب على السوق … بمخاطرةٍ أقل

(1)

Lawrence Carrel, “Index Wars,” Smart Money, August 16, 2006.

(2)

The term market cap refers to the total market capitalization of a publicly traded company (price of the stock times numbers of shares outstanding). A market-cap index is a stock index where stocks are ranked according to their market-cap size. Dividend-weight index refers to an index that is ranked according to the dividend each company pays.

الفصل الرابع: الاستثمار ذو العائد المرتفع

(1)

David S. Swensen, Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment (New York: Free Press, 2005), 297.

(2)

Swensen, Unconventional Success, 298.

الفصل الخامس: كيف صنعت تشيلي ثورة عمالية-رأسمالية

(1)

José Piñera, “The Success of Chile’s Privatized Social Security,” Cato Policy Report, http://www.cato.org/pubs/policy_report/pr-ja-jp.html.

(2)

Milton Friedman, Capitalism and Freedom (University of Chicago Press, 1962), 182–89. Friedman later endorsed the Chilean model and favored privatization of Social Security in the United States.

(3)

Private interview with Arnold C. Harberger at the Mont Pelerin Society meetings in Salt Lake City, August 18, 2004. TIAA-CREF isn’t the only pension system in the United States that offers individualized pension accounts. The federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan (TSA) offers federal employees a variety of fund choices in their personal retirement accounts.

(4)

José Piñera, “The Success of Chile’s Privatized Social Security,” Cato Policy Report, http://www.cato.org/pubs/policy_report/pr-ja-jp.html.

(5)

Rudi Dornbusch, “Dole Blew a Chance to Be Bold,” BusinessWeek, September 2, 1996.

الفصل السادس: المطالبة بإصلاح الضمان الاجتماعي

(1)

Vito Tanzi and Ludger Schuknecht, Public Spending in the 20th Century; A Global Perspective (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000), 201.

(2)

Ludwig von Mises, Planning for Freedom, 4th ed. (South Holland, Ill.: Libertarian Press, 1980), 18–35. This argument applies equally to pharmaceutical drugs under Medicare coverage.

الفصل السابع: ٤ آلاف دولارٍ شهريًّا من الضمان الاجتماعي؟

(1)

William G. Shipman, “Retiring with Dignity: Social Security vs. Private Markets,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis (August 14, 1995): http://www.cato.org/pubs/ssps/ssp2es.html.

الفصل الثامن: كيف حلَّ القطاع الخاص أزمته مع المعاشات

(1)

Peter F. Drucker, “The Sickness of Government,” in The Age of Discontinuity (New York: Harper, 1969), 229, 236.

(2)

Peter F. Drucker, The Unseen Revolution: How Pension Fund Socialism Came to America (New York: Harper & Row, 1976). This book was reprinted with a new introduction as The Pension Fund Revolution (New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction, 1996).

(3)

Andrew G. Biggs, “Social Security: Is It a Crisis That Doesn’t Exist?” Cato Social Security Privatization Report 21 (www.cato.org), October 5, 2000, 3.

(4)

Ibid., 32.

(5)

Drucker, The Age of Discontinuity, 241.

الفصل التاسع: المصادر الأربعة للسعادة

(1)

Bruno S. Frey and Alois Stutzer, Happiness and Economics (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2002), 81.

(2)

See my article “Easy Living—My Two Years in the Bahamas” at www.mskousen.com. Frey and Stutzer, 75.

(3)

Ibid., 78. In fact, Frey and Stutzer publish a graph showing that “Per capita income in the United States has risen sharply in recent decades, but the proportion of persons considering themselves to be ‘very happy’ has fallen over the same period” (p. 77).

الجزء الثاني: الاقتصاديون يدخلون قاعات اجتماعات الشركات

الفصل العاشر: تحسين الناتج النهائي بالقيمة الاقتصادية المضافة

(1)

Al Ehrbar, EVA: The Real Key to Creating Wealth (New York: Wiley & Sons, 1998), viii.

(2)

John Kay, Why Firms Succeed (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995), 19.

الفصل الحادي عشر: كيف ساهم لودفيج فون ميزس في إنشاء أكبر شركةٍ خاصةٍ في العالم

(1)

Ludwig von Mises, The Anti-Capitalist Mentality (Libertarian Press, 1972 [1956]), 19.

(2)

John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (London: Macmillan, 1936), 383.

(3)

Charles Koch, The Science of Success (New York: Wiley, 2007), 149.

(4)

Koch, The Science of Success, 15.

الجزء الثالث: حل المشكلات المحلية

الفصل الثاني عشر: انظري يا سيدتي، لا توجد اختناقات مرورية!

(1)

Jonathan Leape, “The London Congestion Charge,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 20: 4 (Fall 2006): 157.

(2)

National Transportation Operations Coalition, National Traffic Signal Report Card, 2005.

(3)

Ted Balaker and Sam Staley, The Road More Traveled (New York: Rowman & Littlefield, 2006), xiii.

(4)

Jonathan Leape, “The London Congestion Charge,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 20: 4 (Fall 2006): 165-166.

(5)

Quoted in Robert W. Poole, Jr., “HOT Lanes Advance in Seven States,” Budget & Tax News (Chicago: Heartland Institute, March 2004).

(6)

Peter Samuel and Robert W. Poole, Jr., “The Role of Tolls in Financing 21st Century Highways” (Los Angeles: Reason Foundation, 2007), Executive Summary.

الفصل الثالث عشر: قوة المريض

(1)

Michael F. Cannon and Michael D. Tanner, Healthy Competition (Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute, 2005), 7.

(2)

Technically, they are Health Reimbursement Accounts (HRAs), which have fewer rules and restrictions than HSAs. Whole Foods Market is considering switching to HSAs in the future.

(3)

John Mackey, “Whole Foods Markets’ Consumer-Driven Health Plan,” speech at the State Policy Network meeting, October 2004, Austin, Texas, http://www.world.congress.com/news/Mackey_Transcript.pdf

الفصل الرابع عشر: عودة إلى الأساسيات

(1)

Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations (New York: Modern Library, 1965 [1776]), 719.

(2)

Milton Friedman, “Prologue: A Personal Retrospective” Liberty and Learning: Milton Friedman’s Voucher Idea at Fifty, ed. by Robert C. Enlow and Leonore T. Ealy (Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute, 2006), x.

(3)

Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, 718, 720.

(4)

Robert C. Enlow and Leonore T. Ealy, eds., Liberty and Learning (Cato Institute, 2006), viii, 4.

(5)

Milton Friedman, Capitalism and Freedom (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1982 [1962]), 93.

(6)

Herbert J. Walberg, School Choice: The Findings (Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute, 2007), 104.

(7)

Andrew Coulson, “A Critique of Pure Friedman: An Empirical Reassessment of ‘The Role of Government in Education,’” Liberty and Learning, 116.

(8)

Herbert J. Walberg, School Choice, 47–49.

(9)

Herbert J. Walberg, School Choice, 51–53.

(10)

Herbert J. Walberg, School Choice, flyleaf.

الفصل الخامس عشر: معرض أسلحة شيكاجو

(1)

Gary S. Becker and Guity Nashat Becker, The Economics of Life (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1997), 143.

(2)

Quoted in David Colander, The Making of an Economist, Redux (Princeton University Press, 2007), 190.

(3)

Becker and Becker, Economics of Life, 137.

(4)

John R. Lott, Jr., Freedomonomics (Washington: Regnery, 2007), 134-135.

(5)

Lawrence Katz, Steven D. Levitt, and Ellen Shustorovich, “Prison Conditions, Capital Punishment, and Deterrence,” American Law and Economics Review, 2003 (5:2), 318-343.

(6)

Adam Liptak, “Does Death Penalty Save Lives? A New Debate on an Old Question,” New York Times (November 18, 2007), p. 1.

(7)

Ibid., 32.

(8)

John R. Lott, Jr., More Guns, Less Crime (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998), 5.

(9)

Ibid.

(10)

Frederic Bastiat, “What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen,” Selected Essays on Political Economy (Irvington-on-Hudson, N.Y.: Foundation for Economic Education, 1995 [1850]), 1.

الفصل السادس عشر: حُمَّى المزادات تصيب الاقتصاديين

(1)

William Vickrey, “Counterspeculation, auctions, and competitive sealed tenders,” Journal of Finance 16 (1961), 8–37.

(2)

Paul Klemperer, Auctions: Theory and Practice (Princeton University Press, 2004), 105, 107.

(3)

Quoted in David Reiley, “Vickrey Auctions in Practice: From Nineteenth Century Philately to Twenty-First Century E-commerce,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 16:3 (Summer 2000), 183–192.

(4)

Milton and Rose Friedman, Two Lucky People (University of Chicago Press, 1998), 385-386.

(5)

www.treas.gov/auctions/.

(6)

www.cambridge.org/uk/economics/milgrom/reviews.htm.

(7)

Paul Klemperer, Auctions: Theory and Practice (Princeton University Press, 2004), preface.

(8)

“Why we do what we do on eBay: Economists mine the online auction site to find out why shoppers act irrationally,” Christian Science Monitor (July 16, 2007).

الفصل السابع عشر: دور القطاع الخاص

(1)

Paul A. Samuelson, Economics, 6th ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1964), 159.

(2)

Ronald H. Coase, “The Lighthouse in Economics” in The Firm, the Market, and the Law (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988), 213. Coase’s article originally appeared in The Journal of Law and Economics (October 1974).

(3)

Mark Skousen, “The Perseverance of Paul Samuelson’s Economics,” Journal of Economic Perspectives (Spring 1997), 145.

(4)

Paul A. Samuelson and William D. Nordhaus, Economics, 16th ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1998), 36n.

(5)

Peter Waldman, “If You Build It Without Public Cash, They’ll Still Come,” Wall Street Journal, March 31, 2000, 1.

(6)

Mark S. Rosentraub, Major League Losers: The Real Cost of Sports and Who’s Paying for It (New York: Basic Books, 1997).

(7)

Roger G. Noll and Andrew Zimbalist, Sports, Jobs, and Taxes: The Economic Impact of Sports Teams and Stadiums (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1997).

(8)

J.C. Bradley, The Baseball Economist (New York: Dutton, 2007), 8-9. However, it should be noted that since 1994, the hit batter rates narrowed between the two leagues. Bradley suggests two reasons: the league expansion in the 1990s, which diluted the quality of players, and the “double-warning” rule for hitting batters. See Bradley, The Baseball Economist, 10-11.

(9)

J.C. Bradbury, The Baseball Economist, 74–81.

(10)

J.C. Bradbury, The Baseball Economist, 81. See his website, www.sabernomics.com.

الفصل الثامن عشر: من هو هنري سبيرمان؟

(1)

See, for example, Gary Becker, The Economic Approach to Human Behavior (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1976).

الجزء الرابع: حل المشكلات العالمية

الفصل التاسع عشر: جدل الاقتصاد البيئي

(1)

Worldwatch Institute, The State of the World 2002 (New York: Norton, 2002), xvii.

(2)

Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 30, 32.

(3)

See Julian L. Simon, The Ultimate Resource 2 (Princeton University Press, 1998) and The State of Humanity (New York: Blackwell, 1995).

(4)

Lomborg, Skeptical Environmentalist, 33.

(5)

Lomborg, Skeptical Environmentalist, 318.

(6)

Bjorn Lomborg, Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming (New York: Knopf, 2007).

(7)

Terry L. Anderson and Donald R. Leal, Free-Market Environmentalism, 2nd ed. (New York: Palgrave, 2001), 47–58.

(8)

Garrett Hardin, “The Tragedy of the Commons,” reprinted in Garrett Hardin and John Baden, eds., Managing the Commons (San Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1977), 20.

(9)

Two additional sources written from a free-market perspective are Michael Sanera and Jane S. Shaw, Facts, Not Fear: A Parent’s Guide to Teaching Children About the Environment (Washington, D.C.: Regnery, 1996), and Ronald Bailey, ed., Earth Report 2000 (New York: McGraw Hill, 2000).

الفصل العشرون: القنبلة السكانية

(1)

Julian Huxley, “Too Many People,” in Fairfield Osborn, ed., Our Crowded Planet: Essays on the Pressure of Population (New York: Doubleday, 1962), 223.

(2)

Paul R. Ehrlich, The Population Bomb (New York: Sierra Club, 1968), preface.

(3)

Ehrlich, Population Bomb, 17.

(4)

Robert Malthus, Essay on Population (New York: Penguin Books, 1985 [1798], 71.

(5)

Malthus, Essay on Population, 67–80, 225.

(6)

For an alternative view to Malthusianism, see Julian L. Simon, ed., The State of Humanity (1995) and The Ultimate Resource 2 (1996).

الفصل الحادي والعشرون: حلٌّ من القطاع الخاص للفقر المدقع

(1)

William Easterly, The Elusive Quest for Growth (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2001), 291.

(2)

Recent examples include Paul Craig Roberts and Karen LaFollette Araujo, The Capitalist Revolution in Latin America (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), and James A. Dorn, Steve H. Hanke, and Alan A. Walters, eds., The Revolution in Development Economics (Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute, 1998).

(3)

See P.T. Bauer, The Development Frontier (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1991), Equality, the Third World and Economic Delusion (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1981), and Dissent on Development (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1976).

(4)

William Easterly, The White Man’s Burden: Why the West’s Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good (New York: Penguin, 2006).

(5)

Muhammad Yunus, Banker for the Poor (New York: Public-Affairs, 1999), 145-146.

(6)

Yunus, Banker to the Poor, 203–205.

الفصل الثاني والعشرون: الفقر والثراء: الهند في مقابل هونج كونج

(1)

Quoted in William Proctor, The Templeton Prizes (New York: Doubleday, 1983), 72.

(2)

Quoted in Proctor, Templeton Prizes, 72.

(3)

For an excellent survey of India, see “Unlocking India’s Growth,” The Economist, June 2, 2001.

(4)

P.T. Bauer, “The Lesson of Hong Kong,” in Equality, the Third World and Economic Delusion (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1981), 185.

(5)

P.T. Bauer, “The Lesson of Hong Kong,” 189.

(6)

James Gwartney and Robert Lawson, with William Easterly, Economic Freedom of the World, Annual Report 2006 (Vancouver, B.C.: Fraser Institute, 2006), 13.

(7)

Milton Friedman, Friedman on India (New Delhi: Centre for Civil Society, 2000), 10.

(8)

See John Stossel’s amazing example in his ABC Special “Is America #1?” available on videotape from Laissez Faire Books, 800-326-0996.

(9)

The other free-market think tank, the Liberty Institute, is run very capably by Barun Mitra. Shah and Mitra hosted my visit to India in June 2001. Go to www.libertyindia.org.

(10)

Gita Mehta, Snakes and Ladders: A Modern View of India (London: Minerva, 1997), 16.

(11)

Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations (New York: Random House, 1965 [1776]), 11.

الفصل الثالث والعشرون: إلى أيِّ مدًى المعجزةُ الاقتصادية الآسيوية حقيقية؟

(1)

Lee Kuan Yew, From Third World to First: The Singapore Story, 1965–2000 (New York: Harper Collins, 2000), 291.

(2)

For an excellent survey of the region, see The World Bank, The East Asian Miracle (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993).

(3)

East Asian Miracle, vi.

(4)

Paul Krugman, “The Myth of Asia’s Miracle,” Pop Internationalism (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1996), 173. Originally published in Foreign Affairs (Nov./Dec., 1994).

(5)

Krugman, “Myth of Asia’s Miracle,” Pop Internationalism, 184.

(6)

Marshall Goldman, USSR in Crisis: The Failure of an Economic System (New York: W.W. Norton, 1983), 2.

(7)

Lee Kuan Yew, From Third World to First: The Singapore Story, 1965–2000 (New York: Harper Collins, 2000), 687.

(8)

Ludwig von Mises, “Capital Supply and American Prosperity,” Planning for Freedom, 4th ed. (South Holland, Ill.: Libertarian Press, 1980), 214. I highly recommend this talk on economic development, given by Mises in 1952.

الفصل الرابع والعشرون: ماذا حدث للمصريين؟

(1)

P.T. Bauer and B. S. Yamey, The Economics of Underdeveloped Countries (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1957), 157.

(2)

Claire E. Francy, Cairo: The Practical Guide, 10th ed. (Cairo: American University in Cairo Press, 2001), 68. This guidebook is both shocking and indispensable for anyone moving to or studying this unusual nation. I placed exclamation points on practically every page.

(3)

Import substitution laws are laws passed by the local government to prohibit foreign consumer products in the country, such as shoes, toothpaste, or cars, thus forcing local companies to produce these products at considerably higher prices (and usually less quality).

(4)

Cited in W.W. Rostow, Theorists of Economic Growth from David Hume to the Present (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990), 423.

(5)

Doug Bandow, “The First World’s Misbegotten Economic Legacy to the Third World,” in James A. Dorn, Steve H. Hanke, and Alan A. Walters, eds., The Revolution in Development Economics (Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute, 1998), 217, 222-223.

(6)

James Gwartney and Robert Lawson, Economic Freedom of the World, Annual Report 2006 (Vancouver, B.C.: Fraser Institute, 2006), 9-10.

الفصل الخامس والعشرون: المعجزة الاقتصادية الأيرلندية

(1)

John Maynard Keynes, “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” Essays in Persuasion (New York: Norton, 1963), 365.

(2)

Keynes, Essays in Persuasion, 365.

(3)

Quoted in Jerry J. Jasinowski, ed., The Rising Tide (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998), xxi.

(4)

James Tobin, “Can We Grow Faster?,” in The Rising Tide, 44.

(5)

Robert A. Mundell, “A Progrowth Fiscal System,” in The Rising Tide, 203-204.

(6)

Keynes, Essays in Persuasion, 367.

الفصل السادس والعشرون: ثورة الضريبة الحدية

(1)

Stephen Moore, “Reaganomincs 2.0,” Wall Street Journal (August 31, 2007), A8.

(2)

Supply-side economics is the study of how economic growth can be influenced by incentives to produce (supply) goods and services, as opposed to Keynesian economics, which focuses on ways to control the demand for goods and services.

(3)

Progressive taxation means those who earn more income pay a higher income tax rate.

(4)

Bruce Bartlett, “Supply-Side Economics and Austrian Economics,” The Freeman (April, 1987).

(5)

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Affluent Society (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1958), 96.

(6)

Dan Bawley, The Subterranean Economy (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1982), 135.

(7)

William Baumol and Alan Blinder, Economics: Principles and Policy, 4th ed. (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1988), 835.

(8)

Paul Craig Roberts, The Supply Side Revolution (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1984), 25.

الفصل السابع والعشرون: الجدل حول غياب العدالة الاقتصادية

(1)

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Good Society: The Humane Agenda (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1996), 50.

(2)

“The Rich, the Poor, and the Growing Gap Between Them,” The Economist, June 15, 2006.

(3)

For a critique of the Lorenz curve, see my work Economics on Trial (Homewood, Ill.: Irwin, 1991), 187–197.

(4)

Stanley Lebergott, Pursuing Happiness: American Consumers in the Twentieth Century (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1993), 58. It should also be noted that by 2000, over half of couples were sharing housework duties.

(5)

Lebergott, Pursuing Happiness, 117-118. See also Lebergott’s work, Consumer Expenditures (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1996).

(6)

Michael Cox and Richard G. Alm, “Buying Time,” Reason Magazine, August/September 1998, 42. See also their book, Myths of Rich and Poor: Why We’re Better Off Than We Think (New York: Basic Books, 1999).

(7)

Gregory Clark, A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World (Princeton University Press, 2007), 276, 278.

(8)

Clark, Farewell to Alms, 277.

(9)

Clark, Farewell to Alms, 283-284.

(10)

Clark, Farewell to Alms, 16.

الفصل الثامن والعشرون: رسم بياني واحد يبوح بكل شيء

(1)

Milton Friedman, “Forward,” Economic Freedom of the World, 1975–1995, by James Gwartney, Robert Lawson, and Walter Block (Vancouver, BC: Fraser Institute, 1996).

(2)

Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations (New York: Modern Library, 1965 [1776]), 651.

(3)

Smith, Wealth of Nations, 549.

(4)

Smith, Wealth of Nations, 423.

(5)

Smith, Wealth of Nations, 11.

(6)

Paul A. Samuelson and William D. Nordhaus, Economics, 12th ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1985), 776.

(7)

Mancur Olson, How Bright Are the Northern Lights? (Stockholm: Lund University, 1990), 10.

(8)

Henry C. Wallich, The Cost of Freedom (New York: Collier Books, 1960), 9, 146.

(9)

Olson, How Bright Are the Northern Lights?, 88.

(10)

See Michael A. Walker, “The Historical Development of the Economic Freedom Index,” in James Gwartney, Robert Lawson, and Walter Block, eds., Economic Freedom of the World 1975–1995 (Vancouver, BC: Fraser Institute, 1996). Early participants in these meetings included Milton and Rose Friedman, Michael Walker, Lord Peter Bauer, Gary Becker, Douglass C. North, Armen Alchian, Arnold Harberger, Alvin Rabushka, Walter Block, Gordon Tullock, and Sir Alan Walters.

(11)

James Gwartney and Robert Lawson, Economic Freedom of the World 2004 (Vancouver: Fraser Institute, 2004), 5.

(12)

Marc A. Miles, Edwin J. Feulner, and Mary Anastasia O’Grady, 2005 Index of Economic Freedom (New York and Washington D.C.: Wall Street Journal. and the Heritage Foundation, 2005), 58. For the latest index, go to www.heritage.org.

(13)

Milton Friedman, “Forward,” Economic Freedom of the World, 1975–1995 (1996).

(14)

Gwartney and Lawson, Economic Freedom of North America, 2004 Annual Report, 4.

(15)

James Gwartney and Robert Lawson, Economic Freedom of the World, 2004 Annual Report (Fraser Institute, 2005), 35.

(16)

Susan Rose-Ackerman, “The Role of The World Bank in Controlling Corruption,” Law and Policy in International Business (Fall, 1997).

(17)

Jakob Svensson, as cited in The Economist (December 23, 2006), 126.

(18)

“The etiquette of bribery,” The Economist (December 23, 2006), 126.

الفصل التاسع والعشرون: مخطط بياني مدهش

(1)

Gary S. Becker and Guity Nashat Becker, The Economics of Life (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1997), 16.

(2)

Another is Robert H. Nelson, author of two excellent books, Reaching for Heaven on Earth: The Theological Meaning of Economics (Savage, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, 1991) and Economics as Religion: From Samuelson to Chicago and Beyond (University Park: Penn State Press, 2001), both of which deal with economics as religion rather than the economics of religion.

(3)

Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations (New York: Modern Library, 1965 [1776]), 744–748.

(4)

Lawrence Iannaccone, “The Consequences of Religious Market Structure,” Rationality and Society (April 1991), 156–177. See also “Adam Smith’s Hypothesis on Religion,” chapter 10 in Edwin G. West, Adam Smith and Modern Economics (Hants, England: Edward Elgar, 1990).

(5)

Roger Finke and Rodney Stark, The Churching of America, 1776–1990: Winners and Losers in Our Religious Economy (New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press, 1992), 1.

(6)

Finke and Stark, Churching of America, 32.

(7)

Finke and Stark, Churching of America, 5.

الفصل الثلاثون: السلام على الأرض، النوايا الحسنة تجاه البشر

(1)

Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations (New York: Modern Library, 1965 [1776]), 745.

(2)

Leonard Read, Anything That’s Peaceful, 2nd ed. (New York: Foundation for Economic Education, 1998), 30.

(3)

Tim Kane, Kim R. Holmes, and Mary Anastasia O’Grady, 2007 Index of Economic Freedom (Washington, D.C.: Heritage Books, 2007).

(4)

Henry Hazlitt, The Foundations of Morality, 3rd ed. (New York: Foundation for Economic Education, 1998 [1964]), 339.

(5)

See Milton Friedman, Capitalism and Freedom (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962), chapter 1.

(6)

Charles Montesquieu, The Spirit of the Laws (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989 [1748]), 338.

(7)

Albert O. Hirschman, The Passion and the Interests, 2nd ed. (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997), 72. I highly recommend this brilliant book. For more discussion of the peaceable nature of capitalism, see my book, The Making of Modern Economics (New York: M. E. Sharpe, 2001), chapter 1.

(8)

John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Interest, Money and Employment (London: Macmillan, 1936), 374. Today we might say, “Better that a person tyrannize over his favorite sports team or his favorite stock than over his fellow citizen.”

(9)

Gerald O’Driscoll, Jr., and Sara J. Fitzgerald, “Trade Promotes Prosperity and Security,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder #1617 (December 18, 2002).

(10)

Andrew Sullivan, “This Is a Religious War,” New York Times Magazine, October 7, 2001, 53.

(11)

Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, 747-748.

الجزء الخامس: التنبؤ بالمستقبل

الفصل الحادي والثلاثون: نموذج ييل الجديد للتكهنات

(1)

Robert Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 2nd ed. (Princeton University Press, 2005), xii.

(2)

Irving Fisher was quoted in the October 16, 1929, issue of the New York Times.

(3)

Kathryn M. Dominquez, Ray C. Fair, and Matthew D. Shapiro, “Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale,” American Economic Review, September 1988, 605. The authors ignored the Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek, as well as the sound money camp of E. C. Harwood and Benjamin Anderson, who did anticipate economic trouble. See my paper, “Who Predicted the 1929 Crash?” in Jeffrey M. Herbener, ed. The Meaning of Ludwig von Mises (New York: Kluwer Publishers, 1993), 247–283.

(4)

Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, xviii.

(5)

Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 14.

الفصل الثاني والثلاثون: التنبؤ بالانتخابات

(1)

Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, 3rd ed. (Chicago: Regnery, 1966), 337-338.

(2)

Joyce Berg, Forrest Nelson, and Thomas Rietz, “Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets,” University of Iowa Working Draft, (November 2001), 10.

(3)

Joyce Berg, Forrest Nelson, and Thomas Rietz, “Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run,” University of Iowa Working Draft (August 2007), abstract.

(4)

Berg, Nelson, and Rietz, “Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets” (2001), 13.

(5)

Friedrich A. Hayek, “The Use of Knowledge in Society,” American Economic Review 35 (1945), 519–530.

الفصل الثالث والثلاثون: ما الذي يحرك الاقتصاد والأسهم

(1)

For more information, see Chapter 2 of my book, The Making of Modern Economics (Armon, N.Y.: M. E. Sharpe Publishers, 2001).

(2)

For more information on Gross Domestic Expenditures (GDE), see my book, The Structure of Production (New York: New York University Press, 1990, 2007), which includes a new introduction. Also, see my article, “What Drives the Economy: Consumer Spending or Saving/Investment? Using GDP, Gross Output and Other National Income Statistics to Determine Economic Performance,” Backgrounder, 2004, Initiative for Policy Dialogue, http://www-1.gsb.columbia.edu/ipd/j_gdp.html.

(3)

For information on how the BEA figures Gross Output, go to www.bea.gov and look under “GDP by Industry,” then “interactive tables.” For the differences between GO, GDE, and GDP, see xv–xvi in the introduction to The Structure of Production (2007 edition).

(4)

Peter F. Drucker, Toward the Next Economics and Other Essays (New York: Harper & Row, 1981), 8.

(5)

Ludwig von Mises, “Capital Supply and American Prosperity,” in Planning for Freedom, 4th ed. (Spring Mills, PA: Libertarian Press, 1980), 197.

الفصل الرابع والثلاثون: معدن ميداس

(1)

Roy W. Jastram, The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience, 1560–1976 (New York: Wiley & Sons, 1977), 132.

(2)

Mark Mobius, “Asia Needs a Single Currency,” Wall Street Journal, February 19, 1998, A22.

(3)

See my book, Economics of a Pure Gold Standard, 3rd ed. (New York: Foundation for Economic Education, 1997), 82. Note how the world monetary stock of gold never has declined between 1810 and 1933, when the West was on the classical gold standard.

(4)

Jeremy J. Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run, 3rd ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2002), 195.

(5)

For further discussion regarding the inherent volatility of the mining industry, see my work The Structure of Production (New York: New York University Press, 1990, 2007), 290–294.

(6)

“The Song of Bernanke,” Wall Street Journal lead editorial, August 31, 2007, A8.

الفصل الخامس والثلاثون: هل يمكن أن يحدث كساد عظيم آخر؟

(1)

Milton Friedman, “Why the American Economy is Depression-Proof,” Dollars and Deficits (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1968), 72–96.

(2)

Benjamin M. Anderson, Economics and the Public Welfare (Indianapolis: Liberty Press, 1979 [1949]), and Murray N. Rothbard, America’s Great Depression (Princeton N.J.: D. Van Nostrand, 1963).

(3)

Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 (Princeton N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1963), 299.

(4)

Friedman and Schwartz, Monetary History, 360-361.

(5)

Gene Smiley, “Some Austrian Perspectives on Keynesian Fiscal Policy and the Recovery of the Thirties,” Review of Austrian Economics (1987), 1:146–179, and Mark Skousen, “The Great Depression,” in Peter Boettke, ed., The Elgar Companion to Austrian Economics (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 1994), 431–439.

(6)

Robert Higgs, “Regime Uncertainty: Why the Great Depression Lasted So Long and Why Prosperity Resumed After the War,” The Independent Review (Spring 1997), 1:4, 561–590.

(7)

Robert Higgs, “Wartime Prosperity? A Reassessment of the U.S. Economy in the 1940s,” Journal of Economic History 52 (March 1992): 41–60. See also Richard K. Vedder and Lowell Gallaway, “The Great Depression of 1946,” Review of Austrian Economics 5, no. 2 (1991): 3–31.

(8)

Higgs’ papers on the Great Depression have all been compiled into one anthology, Depression, War, and Cold War: Studies in Political Economy (Oxford University Press, 2006).

الفصل السادس والثلاثون: الاقتصادي الأكثر تأثيرًا اليوم

(1)

Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw, The Commanding Heights: The Battle Between Government and the Marketplace That Is Remaking the Modern World (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1998), 15.

(2)

John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (London: Macmillan, 1936), 383.

(3)

For a good overview of Hayek’s works, see The Essence of Hayek, ed. Chiaka Nishiyama and Kurt R. Leube (Stanford, Calif.: Hoover Institution, 1984). For a partial autobiography, see Hayek on Hayek (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994). A full-scale intellectual biography of Hayek has been written by Alan Ebenstein, Friedrich Hayek, A Biography (New York: St. Martins Press, 2001).

(4)

Peter F. Drucker, “Modern Prophet: Schumpeter or Keynes?” in The Frontiers of Management (New York: Harper & Row, 1986), 104.

(5)

Yergin and Stanislaw, Commanding Heights, 141. Also see my book, Vienna and Chicago, Friends or Foes? (Washington, D.C.: Capital Press, 2005).

الفصل السابع والثلاثون: علم الاقتصاد للقرن الحادي والعشرون

(1)

Marquis de Condorcet, “The Future Progress of the Human Mind,” The Portable Enlightenment Reader, ed. Isaac Kramnick (Penguin Books, 1995), 38. Several of Condorcet’s writings can be found in this excellent anthology.

(2)

Paul Johnson, Modern Times: The World from the Twenties to the Nineties, rev. ed. (New York: Harper, 1992). The best survey of the horrors of communism is The Black Book of Communism: Crimes, Terror, Repression (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1999), written by six French scholars, some of whom are former communists.

(3)

Frederic Bastiat, Selected Essays on Political Economy (Irvington-on-Hudson, N.Y.: Foundation for Economic Education, 1995 [1964]).

(4)

Stanley Liebergott, Pursuing Happiness: American Consumers in the Twentieth Century (Princeton University Press, 1993), flyleaf.

(5)

Peter F. Drucker, Toward the Next Economics, and Other Essays (New York: Harper & Row, 1981), 1–21.