ملاحظات
الفصل الأول: العالم والكلمات والمعنى
(1)
See, for instance, Kazimierz Laski, “The Stabilization Plan for
Poland,” Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter, 5
(1990), pp. 444–458. See also Mario D. Nuti, Crisis,
Reform, and Stabilization in Central Eastern Europe: Prospects and
Western Response [in] La Grande
Europa, la Nuova Europa: Opportunità e Rischi (Siena: Monte
dei Paschi di Siena, 1990). The author of the present work has published
extensively on this issue in scholarly journals since 1989; see also a
polemic with Jeffrey Sachs, who had powerful influence on the Polish
minister of finance and other high government officials at the time:
Grzegorz W. Kolodko, “Patient Is Ready,” The Warsaw
Voice, Dec. 4, 1989.
(2)
Carl Sagan, “The Fine Art of Baloney Detection,” Parade, Feb. 1. 1987.
(3)
Michael Shermer, Why People Believe
Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstitions, and Other Confusions of Our
Time (New York: W.H. Freeman, 1997).
(4)
Francis Wheen, How Mumbo-Jumbo
Conquered the World: A Short History of Modern Delusions
(London: Harper Perennial, 2004).
(5)
Francis Fukuyama, The End of History
and the Last Man (New York: Free Press,
1992).
(6)
Isaac Getz and Alan G. Robinson, “Innovate or Die: Is That a
Fact?” Creativity and Innovation
Management, 12, 3 (Sept. 2003), pp. 130–136.
www.blackwell-synergy.com.
(7)
More on the great post-communist systemic changes see Grzegorz
W. Kolodko, From Shock to Therapy. The Political
Economy of Postsocialist Transformation (Oxford-New York:
Oxford University Press, 2000).
(8)
The author of the present work joins with other authors in
considering the lessons to be learned from the Polish transformation—what
worked and what didn’t—and its applicability for other countries in the
process of complex systemic change in The Polish
Miracle: Lessons for the Emerging Markets (Burlington VT:
Ashgate, Aldershot, 2005).
(9)
Joseph E. Stiglitz, Globalization and
Its Discontents (New York and London: W.W. Norton,
2002).
(10)
Robert Gwiazdowski, “Stiglitz: falszywy prorok” [Stiglitz—a
false prophet], Forbes [Polish edition],
Dec. 2006, p. 144.
(11)
Andrew Reynolds, introduction to Victor Erofeyev, Life with an Idiot, trans. Andrew Reynolds
(London: Penguin, 2004), pp. xx.
(12)
Wislawa Szymborska, “List,” translated by Stanislaw Barańczak and
Clare Cavanagh, Monologue of
a Dog (Orlando: Harcourt, 2006), pp.
83–87.
(13)
Jeffrey D. Sachs, The End of Poverty: How We Can
Make It Happen in Our Lifetime (New York: Penguin,
2005).
(14)
Montaigne, I, 9.
(15)
See, for instance, Paul Ekman, Telling
Lies: Clues to Deceit in the Marketplace, Marriage, and
Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 1985), and Chris Thurman,
The Lies We Believe (Nashville:
Thomas Nelson, 1989).
(16)
David Harvey, A Brief History of
Neoliberalism (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press,
2005).
(17)
John R. Lott and Kevin A. Hassett, “Is Newspaper Coverage of
Economic Events Politically Biased?” Social Science Research Network, 2004,
www.ssrn.com.
(18)
Christopher Andrew and Vasili Mitrokhin state that the KGB
managed to place no fewer than 1,980 articles in the Indian press in 1976,
and 440 in the Pakistani press in 1977. These are only examples of a form of
information manipulation that was practiced universally and, of course, by
both sides during the Cold War. The World Was Going
Our Way: The KGB and the Battle for the Third World (New
York: Basic Books, 2005).
(19)
Janos Kornai, By Force of Thought: Irregular Memoirs
of an Intellectual Journey (Cambridge MA and London: MIT
Press, 2006).
(20)
World Bank, The State in a Changing
World (Washington: Oxford University Press, 1977); Janos
Kornai, The Role of the State in a Post-Socialist
Economy: Distinguished Lecture Series (Warsaw: Leon Kozminski
Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management, 2001),
www.tiger.edu.pl; Joseph E. Stiglitz, Making Globalization Work (New York-London: W.
W. Norton & Co., 2007); Fukuyama, State-Building: Governance and World Order in the 21st
Century (Ithaca: Cornell University Press,
2004).
(21)
Wei-Bin Zhang, Economic Growth Theory:
Capital, Knowledge, and Economic Structures (Burlington VT:
Ashgate, Aldershot, 2005); Elhanan Helpman, The
Mystery of Economic Growth (Cambridge MA and London: Harvard
University Press, 2004). Mathematical formulas take precedence over words
and dominate the discourse in the former book; the latter book, containing
no formulas at all, represents one of the best studies of the issues of
economic growth.
(22)
Albrecht Fölsing, Albert Einstein: A
Biography (New York: Penguin, 1998), p.
457.
الفصل الثاني: كيف تحدث الأشياء
(1)
Jim Crace, The Pesthouse
(London: Picador, 2007).
(2)
Cormac McCarthy, The Road
(New York: Vintage International, 2007).
(3)
Tobias Buck reports in an FT
article dated March 5, 2007 that “The European Union’s economic development
is only now reaching the level achieved by the US more than two decades ago.
… The US reached the EU’s current level of gross domestic product per capita
in 1985, according to [a] report by Eurochambres, the pan-European business
lobby.” “EU Economy Is 20 Years Behind US, Says Study.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9ebc7f02-cb3e-11db-b436-000b5df10621.html
(accessed July 31, 2009).
(4)
The Fespaco (Festival Panafricain du Cinéma et de la Télévision
de Ouagadougou) has been organized in Burkina Faso every two years since
1969, and has become a cultural event of significance for the whole
continent and an engine for the emergence of the young African cinema onto
the world scene. At the 20th anniversary festival in February-March 2007,
the Nigerian film Ezra by Newton Aduaka
won the grand prize, the Yenneng Golden Mustang. The film recounts the fate
of a boy soldier in the Sierra Leone civil war, which has left the country
one of the poorest in the world, with a per capita GDP of about $900 by
purchasing power parity, which equated to a mere $200 at the exchange rate
in 2007, enough to pay for one night’s stay at the best hotel in the
war-ravaged country’s capital, Freetown.
(5)
Louis Armstrong, Black and Blue in The Louis Armstrong Collection,
vol. 2 (St. Laurent, Quebec: Excelsior-St. Clair Entertainment Group,
1995).
(6)
Purchasing power parity, or PPP, is frequently used in
international comparisons. It takes account of the wide differentials in
price structure and level as a way of indicating the amount of goods and
services that can be purchased in the local currency. For instance, if the
same representative “shopping basket” of consumer goods could be purchased
in China for 2 yuan as could be bought with $1.00 in the U.S., then one
dollar would be worth 2 yuan by PPP, rather than 8 yuan by the official
exchange rate. This example is close to reality, since the GDP of China
calculated by PPP is about four times higher than when it is calculated by
the official exchange rate. The Chinese GDP is in fact equal to 78 percent
of that of the E.U., instead of 18 percent by the official exchange rate. In
the case of Poland, the ratio is about 1.5 to 1.
(7)
“Fit at 50? A Special Report on the European Union,” The Economist, March 17,
2007.
(8)
William Faulkner, Requiem for a
Nun (Westminster, MA: Vintage Books, 1951), Act I, Scene
III.
الفصل الثالث: موجز لتاريخ العالم وما يمكن أن نتعلمه منه
(1)
Zygmunt Bauman, Wasted Lives. Modernity
and Its Outcasts, Polity Press, London
2004.
(2)
Although this book devotes very little space to alternative
history, it is worth consulting a collection of essays by leading western
historians, Robert Cowley (ed.), What If? Eminent
Historians Imagine What Might Have Been (New York: Putnam,
2001).
(3)
See Jacques Attali, 1492
(Paris: Fayard, 1991).
(4)
Tango na glos i orkiestra [Tango for vocal and
orchestra], words and music by Grzegorz Tomczak, vocal by Maryla Rodowicz, Antologia 3 (Polygram Polska,
1996).
(5)
The Queen’s award of a knighthood to Salman Rushdie led to
international tensions, even between such allies as Pakistan and the U.S.
Rushdie is the author of the controversial The
Satanic Verses (London: Viking, 1988), which led to the
subsequent fatwah by orthodox Islamists calling for his death. The Iranian
authorities lifted the fatwah in 1998, but the affair flared up again when
Rushdie reappeared on the international scene, now as Sir Salman, in June
2007.
(6)
See the survey of leading futurologists in Joseph F. Coates and
Jennifer Jarratt, What Futurists Believe
(Bethesda: World Future Society, 1989).
(7)
Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A
Millennial Perspective (Paris: OECD, 2001). This is the most
frequently cited study of estimated output changes over the last 2,000
years. Maddison estimates per capita GDP in Western Europe in 1,000 C.E. at
about $400, which was $50 less than a thousand years earlier. The estimate
uses 1990 prices. If the intervening inflation is taken into account, these
values would be almost $710 and $800, respectively, at 2007
prices.
(8)
Some people think that the inhabitants of India are “Indians,”
who are also sometimes erroneously referred to as “Hindus.” Hindus,
regardless of where they live, profess the world’s oldest religion,
Hinduism; there are at least a billion of them.
(9)
There were about 300 million people in the world in 1 C.E. and
about 310 million in 1000 C.E., according to estimates by John D. Durand,
Historical Estimates of World Population: An
Evaluation (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania
Population Studies Center, 1974),
http://www.indianngos.com/issue/population/statistics/statistics9.htm.
Maddison, World Economy, p. 28, estimates
population growth in the first millennium as about 16 percent (with an
almost imperceptible annual rate of 0.02 percent), from about 231 to 268
million. See also Massimo Livi Bacci, A Concise
History of World Population (Oxford U.K. -Cambridge MA:
Blackwell, 2006). Palmer C. Putnam, Energy in the
Future (London: Macmillan, 1954) estimates world population
at 275 million in 1 C.E., 295 million in 1000 C.E., and 300 million only in
1200 C.E.
(10)
Our great-great-great-great-grandfather is our grandfather’s
grandfather’s grandfather, and our great-great-great-great-grandson is our
grandson’s grandson’s grandson.
(11)
Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and
the Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon and Schuster,
1998).
(12)
The indicator for economic growth, in conformity with the
methodology and nomenclature used in International Monetary Fund statistics
includes 15 European countries: Albania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic,
Croatia, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Macedonia, Malta, Poland,
Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Turkey. Malta and Turkey are usually not
considered to be part of “East-Central Europe.” On the other hand, it does
not include the European members of the post-Soviet CIS—Belarus, Moldova,
and Ukraine—despite the fact that these countries are clearly part of
East-Central Europe.
(13)
In these estimates, “Western Europe” means the 12 of the 15
highly developed old members of the E.U. that belong to the eurozone. This
excludes E.U. members Britain, Sweden, and Denmark, as well as Iceland,
Norway, Switzerland, and the statistically insignificant Andorra,
Liechtenstein, Monaco, and San Marino. This does not affect the statistical
picture, since these countries have GDP rates similar to those of the E.U.
members. From 1998 to 2007, the rate of GDP growth in Britain, at 2.4
percent, was 0.6 higher than in the eurozone according at the exchange rate.
This means that the GDP growth in Western Europe as a whole was about 0.1
percent higher.
(14)
See Michael Shermer, “The Chaos of History: On a Chaotic Model
that Represents the Role of Contingency and Necessity in Historical
Sequences,” Nonlinear Science, 4, 1993,
pp. 1–13.
(15)
On the meanderings of economic development in Eastern Europe as
compared to Western Europe, see Ivan Berend, History
Derailed: Central and Eastern Europe in the “Long” 19th Century
(Berkeley-Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1997), and An
Economic History of Twentieth-Century Europe: Economic Regimes from
Laissez-faire to Globalization (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
2006).
(16)
These data are expressed in purchasing power parity at 2007
prices, assuming that they are about 75 percent higher than the 1990 prices
used by Maddison. Data for the quartile groups based on Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics
(Paris: OECD, 2003). See also the estimates in 1990 prices made by the
International Monetary Fund, World Economic
Outlook (Washington, 2000).
(17)
This is the title of the lovely book by Lapierre, which served
as the basis for the later, less-than-lovely film adaptation. A major
character in the book is a Catholic priest from Poland, Stephan Kovalski,
but his place is taken in the film by an American nurse, and not because of
some possible association with Mother Teresa, but rather for commercial
reasons. Dominique Lapierre, The City of
Joy (New York: Warner Books, 1985); the 1995 film is directed
by Roland Joffe.
(18)
So it has been at least since the publication in 1776 of Adam
Smith’s An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the
Wealth of Nations.
(19)
See David S. Landes, The Wealth and
Poverty of Nations: Why Some Are So Rich and Some So Poor
(New York: W. W. Norton, 1998).
الفصل الرابع: العولمة؛ وماذا بعد؟
(1)
As pointed out by Vincent Cable, Globalization and Global Governance (London: Royal Institute
of International Affairs, 1999).
(2)
David W. Pearce, ed., The MIT
Dictionary of Modern Economics (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press,
1992).
(3)
V. I. Lenin, Imperialism,
The Highest Stage of Capitalism,
www.marxists.org.
(4)
Kwame Nkrumah, Neo-Colonialism: The
Last Stage of Imperialism (London: Thomas Nelson & Sons,
1965).
(5)
It should be “goods and services,” not “merchandise and
services.” Merchandise is the product of human labor intended for exchange
(sale), and can be either a good (material) or a service. Therefore,
“merchandise and services” is a tautology, since it literally means “goods
and services and services.”
(6)
Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, Manifest der Kommunistischen Partei (London, 1848), the
“Communist Manifesto,” was first published in German.
www.marxists.org
(7)
See Federico Mayor et al., The World
Ahead: Our Future in the Making (London: Zed, 2001), p.
136.
(8)
Thomas L. Friedman, The World Is Flat: A Brief
History of the Twenty-First Century (New York: Farrar, Straus
and Giroux, 2005).
(9)
For the functioning of the global financial market, its impact
on the real economy, and the benefits and risks of the globalization of
finance, see Financial Globalization: The Impact on
Trade, Policy, Labor, and Capital Flows (Washington:
International Monetary Fund, 2007).
(10)
See Andrews and Mitrokhin, op.
cit.
(11)
Globalization, Growth and Poverty: Building an
Inclusive World Economy (Washington: World Bank,
2002).
(12)
On the relationship between globalization and the
post-socialist transformation, see Grzegorz W. Kolodko, The World Economy and Great Post-Communist
Change (New York: Nova Science Publishers, 2006); and Saul
Estrin, Grzegorz W. Kolodko, and Milica Uvalic (eds.), Transition and Beyond (New York: Palgrave
Macmillan, 2007).
(13)
Lester C.Thurow, The Future of
Capitalism: How Today’s Economic Forces Shape Tomorrow’s
World (New York: William Morrow, 1996), p.
115.
(14)
World Economic Outlook: Spillovers and Cycles in the
Global Economy (Washington: International Monetary Fund,
2007), and especially chapter 5, “The Globalization of Labor,” pp.
161–192.
(15)
Joseph E. Stiglitz, Making
Globalization Work (New York-London: W. W. Norton & Co.,
2007).
(16)
Jeffrey Frieden, Will Global Capitalism Fall
Again? [in:] Bruegel Essay and
Lecture Series, June 2006.
(17)
John Man, Genghis Khan: Life, Death,
and Resurrection (London: Bantam Books,
2004).
(18)
Jung Chang and John Halliday, Mao: The
Unknown Story (London: Jonathan Cape, 2005), especially
chapter 5, “Maoism Goes Global,” pp. 478–489.
(19)
The CFA franc is used in 14 countries, including 12 former
French colonies, as well as Guinea Bissau (formerly Portuguese) and
Equitorial Guinea (formerly Spanish). The total population of the zone is
about 120 million. The CFA was pegged first to the franc and, since 1999, to
the euro at 1 to 655.957. In fact, there are two separate legal tenders at
this peg, the West African franc (XAF) in Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea
Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo, and Cote d’Ivoire, and the Central
African franc (XOF) in Chad, Gabon, Equitorial Guinea, Cameroon,
Congo-Brazzaville, and the Central African Republic.
(20)
The East Caribbean dollar (XCI) has been used since 1965 in the
eight OECS countries with their population of 600 thousand, plus Anguilla
and Montserrat. The British Virgin Islands, an OECS country, uses the U.S.
dollar. The XCI is pegged at $1US to 2.7 EC$.
(21)
Of the 27 E.U. member states, 16 belong to the Eurozone:
Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy,
Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.
Slovakia and Slovenia are the only two post-socialist countries in the
group. The 16 countries have a total of some 330 million residents. All the
other E.U. members states are under an obligation to join the Eurozone upon
meeting the strict fiscal and monetary convergence criteria set by the
Treaty of Maastricht. The only exceptions are Denmark and the U.K., which
negotiated opt-out agreements. Aside from the CFA, the exchange rates of at
least six currencies, including the Pacific franc (XPF), are pegged directly
to the euro, and eight others have pegged floats (meaning that their values
can fluctuate within fixed bands in relation to that of the euro)
www.ecb.int.
(22)
Robert A. Mundell. International
Economics, (New York: Macmillan, 1968), and especially
chapter 12, “A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas,” pp. 117–186;
www.columbia.edu.
(23)
Robert A. Mundell, The International
Financial Architecture. The Euro Zone and Its Enlargement In Eastern
Europe, [in] Distinguished Lectures
Series, (Warsaw: Leon Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship
and Management (WSPiZ), 2000), www.tiger.edu.pl; One World Economy, One Global Currency? [in]
Distinguished Lectures Series,
(Warsaw: Leon Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management (WSPiZ),
2003), www.tiger.edu.pl.
(24)
There is no shortage of either apologists or critics. The
apologists include Johan Norberg, In
Defenseof Global Capitalism (Washington: Cato
Institute, 2003); Martin Wolf, Why Globalization
Works (New Haven-London: Yale University Press, 2004);
Jagdish Bhagwati, In Defense of Globalization
(New York: Oxford University Press, 2004). As for the critics,
see Will Hutton and Anthony Giddens (eds.), Global
Capitalism (New York: The New Press, 2000); Naomi Klein,
No Logo. Taking Aim at the Brand
Bullies (London: Harper Collins, 2001); Manfred B. Steger,
Globalism. The New Market Ideology
(Lanham, Boulder, New York, and Oxford: Rowman Littlefield, 2002); and
Joseph E. Stiglitz, op. cit. The
controversy has also elicited contributions by Polish economists,
sociologists, political scientists, and philosophers. The author of the
present work has joined this debate on numerous occasions, both in works
published in Polish and in those that have appeared in English, including
Emerging Market Economies. Globalization and
Development (Aldershot UK and Burlington VT: Ashgate, 2003),
which focuses on the positive implications for development, and Grzegorz W.
Kolodko (ed.), Globalization and Social
Stress (Nova Science Publishers, New York 2005), which
examines the downside.
الفصل الخامس: حال العالم الآن
(1)
On the staggering scale of Dürer’s contribution to art, see
Paul Johnson, Creators (New York: Harper
Collins, 2006).
(2)
For additional remarks on the methodology and calculation of
data related to disparities in income distribution around the world, see Bob
Sutcliffe, “Postscript to the Article World Inequality and Globalization,”
Oxford Review of Economic Policy,
Spring 2004,
siteresources.worldbank.org.
(3)
On the methodology used to construct the Human Development
Index, as well as the full figures and the components of them for individual
countries, see World Development Indicators 07
(Washington: The World Bank, 2007) and Development and the Next Generation: World Development
Report (Washington: The World Bank,
2007).
(4)
See World Health Organization, The
World Health Report 2007. A Safer Future: Global Public Health Security
in the 21st Century (Geneva: WHO Press, 2007),
http://www.who.int/whr/2007/en/index.
html.
(5)
Armartya Sen, Development as
Freedom (New York: Alfred A. Knopf,
2000).
(6)
Freedom House provides methodological explanations and detailed
data at its website,
www.freedomhouse.org.
(7)
Similarly, the Heritage Foundation features detailed
information at www.heritage.org.
(8)
Bjørn Lomborg, The Skeptical
Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001).
(9)
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Current State and
Trends (Chicago: Island Press, 2005),
www.millenniumassessment.org.
(10)
www.cia.gov.
(11)
Official reserve assets at the end of January 2008 were €46.2
billion, equal to $68.6 or 167.8 billion Polish
zloty.
(12)
Parikshit K. Basu, “Financial Globalisation and National
Economic Sustainability,” Global Economic
Quarterly, 3 (2002), 2, pp. 145–162; Dipak Dasgupta, Marc
Uzan, and Dominic Wilson, eds., Capital Flows
Without Crisis? Reconciling Capital Mobility and Economic
Stability (London and New York: Routledge,
2001).
الفصل السادس: الليبرالية الجديدة الفاشلة وإرثها الهزيل
(1)
Among those proclaiming this view is the 2004 Nobel Prize
winner Edward C. Prescott, in his “Nobel Lecture: The transformation of
Macroeconomic Policy and Research,” Journal of
Political Economy, 114 (2006), 2, pp.
203–235.
(2)
U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Ian MacLeod (Conservative)
introduced the concept into the political and economic idiom as early as
1965, but it rose to prominence later, in the 1970s,, when the analysis of
the stagflation process served as the basis for Gottfried Haberler’s
economic theory. See Economic Growth and Stability:
An Analysis of Economic Change and Policies (Los Angeles:
Nash Publishing, 1974), and The Problem of
Stagflation: Reflection on the Microfoundation of Macroeconomic Theory
and Policy (Washington: American Enterprise Institute for
Public Policy Research, 1985).
(3)
János Kornai, Economics of
Shortage (Amsterdam: North-Holland,
1980).
(4)
Grzegorz W. Kolodko and Walter McMahon, “Stagflation and
Shortageflation: A Comparative Approach,” Kylos, 40 (1987), 2, pp. 176–197.
(5)
One of the most famous curves in the history of economic
thought, the Phillips curve, illustrating the inflation/unemployment
relation, was sprung upon the world by the New Zealand-born economist Alban
W. Phillips in an article published in a British journal in 1958: “The
Relationship Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wages in
the United Kingdom in 1861–1957,” Economica, 25 (100), pp. 282–299.
(6)
Edmund S. Phelps, Inflation Policy and
Unemployment Theory (New York: W.W. Norton, 1972). The
announcement of the award of the Nobel Prize emphasized the fact that
Phelps’s work had led to a deeper understanding of the relationship between
short- and long-term economic policy; Phelps also wrote about optimizing the
distribution of national income (global output) and capital accumulation
(the so-called golden rule of accumulation).
(7)
David Harvey, A Brief History of
Neoliberalism (New York: Oxford University Press, 2005), pp.
62¬63.
(8)
Views in favor of or opposed to the “Washington Consensus” are
surveyed in Grzegorz W. Kolodko, Post-Communist
Transition and Post-Washington Consensus: The Lessons for Policy
Reforms, [in] Mario I Blejer and Marko Skreb, eds., Transition: The First Decade (Cambridge MA and
London: MIT Press, 2001), pp. 45–83. Joseph E. Stiglitz subjects the
Consensus to a thoroughgoing critique in Making
Globalization Work (New York and London: W.W. Norton,
2007).
(9)
John Williamson coined the term “Washington Consensus” in the
late 1980s. For the theoretical underpinnings and the interpretation of this
concept in economic policy, as well as an interpretation of these
interpretations by the man who invented the term, see his Differing Interpretations of the Washington
Consensus [in] Distinguished Lectures
Series No. 17, (Warsaw: Leon Kozminski Academy of
Entrepreneurship and Management [WSPiZ], 2005),
www.tiger.edu.pl.
(10)
On the basis of his own experience, John Perkins writes about
the deliberate forcing of poor countries into the debt trap and the methods
used along the way in Confessions of an Economic Hit
Man (San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler,
2004).
(11)
There is already an extensive literature on the issue,
including Olivier Blanchard, The Economics of
Post-Communist Transition (New York: Oxford University Press,
1997); Marie Lavigne, The Economics of Transition:
From Socialist Economy to Market Economy (Chatham, Kent:
Macmillan Press, 1995); Kazimierz Poznański, Poland’s Protracted Transition: Institutional Change and Economic
Growth (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995); and
Vladimir Popov, Shock Therapy versus Gradualism
Reconsidered: Lessons from Transition Economies after 15 Years of
Reforms, TIGER Working Paper Series 82 (Warsaw: Leon
Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management, 2006),
www.tiger.edu.pl.
(12)
Professor Kazimierz Laski of the Vienna Institute for
International Economic Research (WIIW) issued a particularly chilling
critique of “shock therapy” in “The Stabilization Plan for Poland,”
Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter, 5
(1990, pp. 444–458), where he warned that industrial production would fall
by 25 percent in the first year, 1990, causing mass unemployment.
Unfortunately, he was right.
(13)
Then, after the successful implementation of the program known
as “Strategy for Poland”, the author of this book for the first time had
stepped down from the Polish government. He was deputy prime minister and
minister of finance in four governments in 1994–97 and
2002-03.
(14)
The Dutch researcher Donald Kalff, who also has real-world
business experience, dispels the idea that the American model of capitalism
and management offers any sort of qualitative advantages and considers the
implications of this fact for competitiveness and the growth of production
in An UnAmerican Business: The Rise of the New
European Enterprise Model (London: Kogan Page,
2005).
(15)
For the negative impact of excessively unequal income
distribution on the rate of economic growth, see Vito Tanzi, Ke-Young Chu,
and Sanjeev Gupta, eds., Economic Policy and
Inequality (Washington: International Monetary Fund,
1999).
(16)
Bernt Bratsberg et. al., Non-linearities in Inter-generational Earnings Mobility
(London: Royal Economics Society, 2006); American
Exceptionalism in a New Light (Bonn: Institute for the Study
of Labor, 2006).
(17)
For the results of this Gallup poll, see “Testing Muslim Views:
If You Want My Opinion,” The Economist,
March 10, 2007, p. 63.
(18)
I reflected on tensions in relations between the U.S. and Iran
in a two-part article, “Triggering the Next Iranian Revolution,” The Globalist, March 14 (part one) and March 15
(part two), 2007.
www.theglobalist.com.
(19)
Results of a representative survey conducted by the BBC. See
“Latin America and the United States: Spring Break,” The Economist, March 3, 2007, p. 49.
(20)
Francis Fukuyama expresses some impassioned views on this
subject in America at the Crossroads: Democracy,
Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy (New Haven and London:
Yale University Press, 2006). See also the comparative analysis of the
presidencies of George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush in
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Second Chance: Three Presidents
and the Crisis of American Superpower (New York: Basic Books,
2007).
(21)
At the end of 2007, the World Bank shocked and astonished a good
many people by revising its previous estimates downward and announcing that
the Chinese GDP, by purchasing power parity, was no less than 40 percent
lower than previously estimated. This would mean that it hovered in the
region of 6 trillion dollars, rather than 10 trillion. The GDP of India was
“marked down” on an even greater scale, which meant that it was not slightly
larger than that of Japan, but rather about half as large. This radical
rewriting of the estimates did not cast the authors in the best light. How
could they have been so wrong? And how could we know that they hadn’t gotten
it wrong again? Understandably, GDP according to PPP will always be an
approximation, at best. Taking into account all the methodological
reservations, I have decided to stick to the original estimates, which seem
to reflect reality more accurately.
(22)
With fertility rates so high in these extremely
poor countries (GDP per capita in Niger and Mali amounted to
$1,000 and $1,200, respectively, by PPP in 2007), infant
mortality below the age of five is 249 per thousand in Niger and
219 per thousand in Mali. By comparison, it is 31 in China and 4
in the most highly developed countries—Finland, Japan, and
Sweden. In Poland, it is 8. See Development and the Next Generation (Washington:
World Bank, 2006), pp. 292-293.
(23)
Brzezinski, op. cit., p.
64.
(24)
David Sater, “The Rise of the Russian Criminal State,”
Prism, Sept. 4, 1998; Janine R.
Wedel, Collision and Collusion: The Strange Case of
Western Aid to Eastern Europe 1989–1998 (New York: St.
Martin’s Press, 1998), and “The Harvard Boys Do Russia,” The Nation, June 1, 1998, pp.
11–16.
(25)
I published extensively on the subject at the time, even in the
New York Times (“Russia Should Put
Its People First,” July 7, 1998), The
Economist (“Don’t Abandon Russia,” Feb. 27, 1999), and the
World Bank’s new research series (“Ten Years of Post-socialist Transition:
The Lessons for Policy Reforms,” Policy Research
Working Paper 2095, April 1999). See also my long? CAHNGE
for: major? book From Shock to Therapy: The
Political Economy of Postsocialist Transformation (Oxford and
New York: Oxford University Press, 2000). Earmath’s plea nevertheless
remains relevant, since the truth has not yet come out decisively on top—if
it ever will.
(26)
See “The Challenger,” The
Economist, Dec. 11, 2004.
(27)
Peter Mandelson quoted in a story on the BBC News website:
“EU-Russia Relations ‘At Low Ebb,’” April 20, 2007,
news.bbc.co.uk.
(28)
Cf. the 2007 CIA World
Factbook (Washington: Central Intelligence Agency),
www.cia.gov.
(29)
Justin Yifu Lin, appointed Chief Economist and Senior Vice
President of the World Bank in 2008, is also a member of the Academic Board
of the TIGER Reserarch Center, where he has visited and lectured. See
Lessons of China’s Transition from a Planned to
a Market Economy [in] Distinguished
Lectures Series No. 16, (Warsaw: Leon Kozminski Academy of
Entrepreneurship and Management [WSPiZ]), available at
www.tiger.edu.pl.
(30)
See Vito Tanzi and Ludger Schuknecht, “The Growth of Government
and the Reform of the State in Industrial Countries,” IMF Working Papers 95/130
(1995).
الفصل السابع: ما التنمية؟ وعلام تعتمد؟
(1)
See Nic Marks, Saamah Abdallah, Andrew Simms, and Sam Thompson,
The Happy Planet Index (London: New
Economics Foundation, 2006). Richard Layard also writes about the category
of happiness as perceived from the economic perspective in Happiness: Lessons from a New Science (London:
Penguin, 2006).
(2)
Press release: “University of Leicester Produces the First Ever
World Map of Happiness: Happiness Is Being Healthy, Wealthy and Wise,”
www2.le.ac.uk; Adrian White, “World Map of Happiness,”
Psych Talk, March
2007.
(3)
A mathematical formula for calculating the degree
of the human poverty gap can be found in the study Indicators for Monitoring the Millennium
Development Goals: Definitions, Rationale, Concepts, and
Sources (New York: United Nations, 2003), p. 9;
mdgs.un.org.
(4)
Development Goals Report 2007:
Statistical Annex (New York: United Nations, 2007). The
relevant information is available at
mdgs.un.org.
(5)
Questioning the assumption about diminishing returns from
capital, Paul Romer, in particular, contributed to creating and developing
an endogenous model of economic growth. See his “Increasing Returns and
Long-Run Growth,” Journal of Political
Economy, 94 (1986), 5, pp. 1002–1037.
(6)
See Robert E. Lucas, “On the Mechanics of Economic
Development,” Journal of Monetary
Economics, 22 (1988), 1, pp. 3–42.
(7)
See George Mavrotas and Anthony Shorrocks, eds., Advancing Development: Core Themes in Global
Economics (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007), a daunting
tome (803 pages) rich in a variety of themes relevant to contemporary
development economics, and containing as its Chapter 28 my text, Institutions, Policies, and Economic
Development, pp. 531–554.
الفصل الثامن: الركود والتنمية: القوانين والسياسة والثقافة
(1)
John Seabrook, “Sowing for Democracy,” The New Yorker, Aug. 27, 2007.
(2)
Statistical data cited in “Caught in the Middle, As Usual,”
The Economist, Nov. 12, 2005, p.
49.
(3)
See Andres Åslund, How Russia Became a
Market Economy (Washington: The Brookings Institution,
1995).
(4)
See Max Weber, The Protestant Ethic and
the “Spirit” of Capitalism, translated and with an
introduction and additional selections by Peter Baehr and Gordon C. Wells
(New York: Pengiun, 2002).
(5)
The 1996 film explains more about the essence of economic
populism, and not only in its Peronist variant, than some scholarly studies
of the subject.
(6)
Elhanan Helpman writes about the meanderings of economic growth
and the complexities of its interpretation in a work that is both
interesting and accessible to an exceptional degree, the aptly titled
The Mystery of Economic Growth
(Oxford and New York: Harvard University Press,
2004).
الفصل التاسع: نظرية المصادفة في التنمية، والبراجماتية الجديدة
(1)
Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of
the Biotechnology Revolution (New York: Farrar, Straus &
Giroux, 2002), p. 66
(2)
Dani Rodrik, Let a Thousand Growth
Models Bloom, www.project-syndicate.org;
Rethinking Growth Strategies [in]
WIDER Perspectives on Global
Development [Houndmills, Hampshire, and New York: Palgrave
Macmillan, 2005), pp. 201–223.
الفصل العاشر: المستقبل الغامض
(1)
See National Intelligence Council, Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence
Council’s 2020 Project. Based on Consultations with Nongovernmental
Experts around the World (Washington, Nov. 2004),
www.foia.cia.gov.net.
(2)
William Easterly, The Elusive Quest for
Growth: Economists’ Adventures and Misadventures in the
Tropics (Cambridge MA and London: MIT Press, 2002); The White Man’s Burden: Why the West’s Efforts to Aid the
Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good (New York:
Penguin Press, 2006).
(3)
Paul Collier, The Bottom Billion: Why
the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About
It (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press,
2007).
(4)
Ilyana Kuziemko and Eric Werker, “How Much Is a Seat on the
Security Council Worth? Foreign Aid and Bribery at the United Nations,”
Journal of Political Economy, 114
(2006), 3, pp. 413–451.
(5)
The members of ASEAN, the Association of South East Asian
Nations, are Burma (Myanmar), Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
The Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
(6)
All but one of the former Soviet Republics are in the
loosely-affiliated CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), with the
exception of the three Baltic States—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—that
have joined the E.U. Georgia has left the grouping after recent military
conflict with Russia. The members of the CIS are Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.
(7)
The member states of Mercosur are Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay,
Uruguay, and Venezuela. The affiliated members of the associated free-trade
zone are Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.
(8)
The members of NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement,
are Canada, Mexico, and the United States.
(9)
The Southern African Development Community has 15 members:
Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar,
Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, The Seychelles, South Africa,
Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
(10)
The members of ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West African
States, are Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Gambia, Ghana, Guinee, Guinee
Bissau, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone,
and Togo.
(11)
In 2007, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal,
Pakistan, and Sri Lanka were joined as members of SAARC (The South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation) by Afghanistan.
(12)
The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf
(CCASG), usually referred to as the Gulf Cooperation Council, groups
together Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab
Emirates.
(13)
The member states of the E.U. are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria,
Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Malta, the
Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden,
and the United Kingdom. Croatia and Turkey, negotiating their accession,
have associated status.
(14)
See Ecosystems and Human Well-Being:
Scenarios (Chicago: Island Press, 2005),
www.millenniumassessment.org.
(15)
Thirty years after the first, best-known work on the
resource-related limits to growth, we have a new work by the redoubtable
authorial team of Donelli H. Meadows, Dennis Meadows, and Jorgen Andrews,
The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year
Update (London and Sterling VA: Earthscan,
2004).
(16)
See General Accountability Office, U.S. Congress, Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to
Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in oil
Production (GAO-07-283), Feb. 2007.
(17)
The cynicism and moral turpitude of the donors of “economic
aid” to the poorest countries form the subject of a provocative and highly
concrete book by Graham Hancock, Lords of
Poverty (Nairobi: Camerapix Publishers International,
2004).
(18)
Orhan Pamuk, Snow (New York:
Knopf, 2004) pp 240.
(19)
David Edgerton, The Shock of the Old:
Technology and Global History since 1900 (London: Profile
Books, 2006).
(20)
Fukuyama, op. cit., p.
9-10.
(21)
See “A World of Connections: A Special Report on Telecoms,”
The Economist, April 28,
2007.
(22)
Jack Hirshleifer writes about ways of overcoming the economic
consequences of thermonuclear war in Economic
Behavior in Adversity (Brighton: Wheatsheaf Books,
1987).
(23)
In 2001, John E. Bortle, the retired fire chief of Westchester,
New York, proposed a system for measuring the darkness of the night sky on a
scale of one to nine, which has gained acceptance among amateur astronomers.
Bortle is a columnist for Sky &
Telescope magazine,
www.shopatsky.com.
(24)
See Mark Abley, Spoken Here: Travels
among Threatened Languages (Montreal: Vintage Canada,
2004).
