الفصل الأول: العالم والكلمات والمعنى
(1)See, for instance, Kazimierz Laski, “The Stabilization Plan for Poland,” Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter, 5 (1990), pp. 444–458. See also Mario D. Nuti, Crisis, Reform, and Stabilization in Central Eastern Europe: Prospects and Western Response [in] La Grande Europa, la Nuova Europa: Opportunità e Rischi (Siena: Monte dei Paschi di Siena, 1990). The author of the present work has published extensively on this issue in scholarly journals since 1989; see also a polemic with Jeffrey Sachs, who had powerful influence on the Polish minister of finance and other high government officials at the time: Grzegorz W. Kolodko, “Patient Is Ready,” The Warsaw Voice, Dec. 4, 1989.
(2)Carl Sagan, “The Fine Art of Baloney Detection,” Parade, Feb. 1. 1987.
(3)Michael Shermer, Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstitions, and Other Confusions of Our Time (New York: W.H. Freeman, 1997).
(4)Francis Wheen, How Mumbo-Jumbo Conquered the World: A Short History of Modern Delusions (London: Harper Perennial, 2004).
(5)Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Free Press, 1992).
(6)Isaac Getz and Alan G. Robinson, “Innovate or Die: Is That a Fact?” Creativity and Innovation Management, 12, 3 (Sept. 2003), pp. 130–136. www.blackwell-synergy.com.
(7)More on the great post-communist systemic changes see Grzegorz W. Kolodko, From Shock to Therapy. The Political Economy of Postsocialist Transformation (Oxford-New York: Oxford University Press, 2000).
(8)The author of the present work joins with other authors in considering the lessons to be learned from the Polish transformation—what worked and what didn’t—and its applicability for other countries in the process of complex systemic change in The Polish Miracle: Lessons for the Emerging Markets (Burlington VT: Ashgate, Aldershot, 2005).
(9)Joseph E. Stiglitz, Globalization and Its Discontents (New York and London: W.W. Norton, 2002).
(10)Robert Gwiazdowski, “Stiglitz: falszywy prorok” [Stiglitz—a false prophet], Forbes [Polish edition], Dec. 2006, p. 144.
(11)Andrew Reynolds, introduction to Victor Erofeyev, Life with an Idiot, trans. Andrew Reynolds (London: Penguin, 2004), pp. xx.
(12)Wislawa Szymborska, “List,” translated by Stanislaw Barańczak and Clare Cavanagh, Monologue of a Dog (Orlando: Harcourt, 2006), pp. 83–87.
(13)Jeffrey D. Sachs, The End of Poverty: How We Can Make It Happen in Our Lifetime (New York: Penguin, 2005).
(14)Montaigne, I, 9.
(15)See, for instance, Paul Ekman, Telling Lies: Clues to Deceit in the Marketplace, Marriage, and Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 1985), and Chris Thurman, The Lies We Believe (Nashville: Thomas Nelson, 1989).
(16)David Harvey, A Brief History of Neoliberalism (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2005).
(17)John R. Lott and Kevin A. Hassett, “Is Newspaper Coverage of Economic Events Politically Biased?” Social Science Research Network, 2004, www.ssrn.com.
(18)Christopher Andrew and Vasili Mitrokhin state that the KGB managed to place no fewer than 1,980 articles in the Indian press in 1976, and 440 in the Pakistani press in 1977. These are only examples of a form of information manipulation that was practiced universally and, of course, by both sides during the Cold War. The World Was Going Our Way: The KGB and the Battle for the Third World (New York: Basic Books, 2005).
(19)Janos Kornai, By Force of Thought: Irregular Memoirs of an Intellectual Journey (Cambridge MA and London: MIT Press, 2006).
(20)World Bank, The State in a Changing World (Washington: Oxford University Press, 1977); Janos Kornai, The Role of the State in a Post-Socialist Economy: Distinguished Lecture Series (Warsaw: Leon Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management, 2001), www.tiger.edu.pl; Joseph E. Stiglitz, Making Globalization Work (New York-London: W. W. Norton & Co., 2007); Fukuyama, State-Building: Governance and World Order in the 21st Century (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2004).
(21)Wei-Bin Zhang, Economic Growth Theory: Capital, Knowledge, and Economic Structures (Burlington VT: Ashgate, Aldershot, 2005); Elhanan Helpman, The Mystery of Economic Growth (Cambridge MA and London: Harvard University Press, 2004). Mathematical formulas take precedence over words and dominate the discourse in the former book; the latter book, containing no formulas at all, represents one of the best studies of the issues of economic growth.
(22)Albrecht Fölsing, Albert Einstein: A Biography (New York: Penguin, 1998), p. 457.
الفصل الثاني: كيف تحدث الأشياء
(1)Jim Crace, The Pesthouse (London: Picador, 2007).
(2)Cormac McCarthy, The Road (New York: Vintage International, 2007).
(3)Tobias Buck reports in an FT article dated March 5, 2007 that “The European Union’s economic development is only now reaching the level achieved by the US more than two decades ago. … The US reached the EU’s current level of gross domestic product per capita in 1985, according to [a] report by Eurochambres, the pan-European business lobby.” “EU Economy Is 20 Years Behind US, Says Study.” http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9ebc7f02-cb3e-11db-b436-000b5df10621.html (accessed July 31, 2009).
(4)The Fespaco (Festival Panafricain du Cinéma et de la Télévision de Ouagadougou) has been organized in Burkina Faso every two years since 1969, and has become a cultural event of significance for the whole continent and an engine for the emergence of the young African cinema onto the world scene. At the 20th anniversary festival in February-March 2007, the Nigerian film Ezra by Newton Aduaka won the grand prize, the Yenneng Golden Mustang. The film recounts the fate of a boy soldier in the Sierra Leone civil war, which has left the country one of the poorest in the world, with a per capita GDP of about $900 by purchasing power parity, which equated to a mere $200 at the exchange rate in 2007, enough to pay for one night’s stay at the best hotel in the war-ravaged country’s capital, Freetown.
(5)Louis Armstrong, Black and Blue in The Louis Armstrong Collection, vol. 2 (St. Laurent, Quebec: Excelsior-St. Clair Entertainment Group, 1995).
(6)Purchasing power parity, or PPP, is frequently used in international comparisons. It takes account of the wide differentials in price structure and level as a way of indicating the amount of goods and services that can be purchased in the local currency. For instance, if the same representative “shopping basket” of consumer goods could be purchased in China for 2 yuan as could be bought with $1.00 in the U.S., then one dollar would be worth 2 yuan by PPP, rather than 8 yuan by the official exchange rate. This example is close to reality, since the GDP of China calculated by PPP is about four times higher than when it is calculated by the official exchange rate. The Chinese GDP is in fact equal to 78 percent of that of the E.U., instead of 18 percent by the official exchange rate. In the case of Poland, the ratio is about 1.5 to 1.
(7)“Fit at 50? A Special Report on the European Union,” The Economist, March 17, 2007.
(8)William Faulkner, Requiem for a Nun (Westminster, MA: Vintage Books, 1951), Act I, Scene III.
الفصل الثالث: موجز لتاريخ العالم وما يمكن أن نتعلمه منه
(1)Zygmunt Bauman, Wasted Lives. Modernity and Its Outcasts, Polity Press, London 2004.
(2)Although this book devotes very little space to alternative history, it is worth consulting a collection of essays by leading western historians, Robert Cowley (ed.), What If? Eminent Historians Imagine What Might Have Been (New York: Putnam, 2001).
(3)See Jacques Attali, 1492 (Paris: Fayard, 1991).
(4)Tango na glos i orkiestra [Tango for vocal and orchestra], words and music by Grzegorz Tomczak, vocal by Maryla Rodowicz, Antologia 3 (Polygram Polska, 1996).
(5)The Queen’s award of a knighthood to Salman Rushdie led to international tensions, even between such allies as Pakistan and the U.S. Rushdie is the author of the controversial The Satanic Verses (London: Viking, 1988), which led to the subsequent fatwah by orthodox Islamists calling for his death. The Iranian authorities lifted the fatwah in 1998, but the affair flared up again when Rushdie reappeared on the international scene, now as Sir Salman, in June 2007.
(6)See the survey of leading futurologists in Joseph F. Coates and Jennifer Jarratt, What Futurists Believe (Bethesda: World Future Society, 1989).
(7)Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective (Paris: OECD, 2001). This is the most frequently cited study of estimated output changes over the last 2,000 years. Maddison estimates per capita GDP in Western Europe in 1,000 C.E. at about $400, which was $50 less than a thousand years earlier. The estimate uses 1990 prices. If the intervening inflation is taken into account, these values would be almost $710 and $800, respectively, at 2007 prices.
(8)Some people think that the inhabitants of India are “Indians,” who are also sometimes erroneously referred to as “Hindus.” Hindus, regardless of where they live, profess the world’s oldest religion, Hinduism; there are at least a billion of them.
(9)There were about 300 million people in the world in 1 C.E. and about 310 million in 1000 C.E., according to estimates by John D. Durand, Historical Estimates of World Population: An Evaluation (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Population Studies Center, 1974), http://www.indianngos.com/issue/population/statistics/statistics9.htm. Maddison, World Economy, p. 28, estimates population growth in the first millennium as about 16 percent (with an almost imperceptible annual rate of 0.02 percent), from about 231 to 268 million. See also Massimo Livi Bacci, A Concise History of World Population (Oxford U.K. -Cambridge MA: Blackwell, 2006). Palmer C. Putnam, Energy in the Future (London: Macmillan, 1954) estimates world population at 275 million in 1 C.E., 295 million in 1000 C.E., and 300 million only in 1200 C.E.
(10)Our great-great-great-great-grandfather is our grandfather’s grandfather’s grandfather, and our great-great-great-great-grandson is our grandson’s grandson’s grandson.
(11)Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1998).
(12)The indicator for economic growth, in conformity with the methodology and nomenclature used in International Monetary Fund statistics includes 15 European countries: Albania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Macedonia, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Turkey. Malta and Turkey are usually not considered to be part of “East-Central Europe.” On the other hand, it does not include the European members of the post-Soviet CIS—Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine—despite the fact that these countries are clearly part of East-Central Europe.
(13)In these estimates, “Western Europe” means the 12 of the 15 highly developed old members of the E.U. that belong to the eurozone. This excludes E.U. members Britain, Sweden, and Denmark, as well as Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and the statistically insignificant Andorra, Liechtenstein, Monaco, and San Marino. This does not affect the statistical picture, since these countries have GDP rates similar to those of the E.U. members. From 1998 to 2007, the rate of GDP growth in Britain, at 2.4 percent, was 0.6 higher than in the eurozone according at the exchange rate. This means that the GDP growth in Western Europe as a whole was about 0.1 percent higher.
(14)See Michael Shermer, “The Chaos of History: On a Chaotic Model that Represents the Role of Contingency and Necessity in Historical Sequences,” Nonlinear Science, 4, 1993, pp. 1–13.
(15)On the meanderings of economic development in Eastern Europe as compared to Western Europe, see Ivan Berend, History Derailed: Central and Eastern Europe in the “Long” 19th Century (Berkeley-Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1997), and An Economic History of Twentieth-Century Europe: Economic Regimes from Laissez-faire to Globalization (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
(16)These data are expressed in purchasing power parity at 2007 prices, assuming that they are about 75 percent higher than the 1990 prices used by Maddison. Data for the quartile groups based on Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics (Paris: OECD, 2003). See also the estimates in 1990 prices made by the International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook (Washington, 2000).
(17)This is the title of the lovely book by Lapierre, which served as the basis for the later, less-than-lovely film adaptation. A major character in the book is a Catholic priest from Poland, Stephan Kovalski, but his place is taken in the film by an American nurse, and not because of some possible association with Mother Teresa, but rather for commercial reasons. Dominique Lapierre, The City of Joy (New York: Warner Books, 1985); the 1995 film is directed by Roland Joffe.
(18)So it has been at least since the publication in 1776 of Adam Smith’s An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.
(19)See David S. Landes, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations: Why Some Are So Rich and Some So Poor (New York: W. W. Norton, 1998).
الفصل الرابع: العولمة؛ وماذا بعد؟
(1)As pointed out by Vincent Cable, Globalization and Global Governance (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1999).
(2)David W. Pearce, ed., The MIT Dictionary of Modern Economics (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1992).
(3)V. I. Lenin, Imperialism, The Highest Stage of Capitalism, www.marxists.org.
(4)Kwame Nkrumah, Neo-Colonialism: The Last Stage of Imperialism (London: Thomas Nelson & Sons, 1965).
(5)It should be “goods and services,” not “merchandise and services.” Merchandise is the product of human labor intended for exchange (sale), and can be either a good (material) or a service. Therefore, “merchandise and services” is a tautology, since it literally means “goods and services and services.”
(6)Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, Manifest der Kommunistischen Partei (London, 1848), the “Communist Manifesto,” was first published in German. www.marxists.org
(7)See Federico Mayor et al., The World Ahead: Our Future in the Making (London: Zed, 2001), p. 136.
(8)Thomas L. Friedman, The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005).
(9)For the functioning of the global financial market, its impact on the real economy, and the benefits and risks of the globalization of finance, see Financial Globalization: The Impact on Trade, Policy, Labor, and Capital Flows (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 2007).
(10)See Andrews and Mitrokhin, op. cit.
(11)Globalization, Growth and Poverty: Building an Inclusive World Economy (Washington: World Bank, 2002).
(12)On the relationship between globalization and the post-socialist transformation, see Grzegorz W. Kolodko, The World Economy and Great Post-Communist Change (New York: Nova Science Publishers, 2006); and Saul Estrin, Grzegorz W. Kolodko, and Milica Uvalic (eds.), Transition and Beyond (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007).
(13)Lester C.Thurow, The Future of Capitalism: How Today’s Economic Forces Shape Tomorrow’s World (New York: William Morrow, 1996), p. 115.
(14)World Economic Outlook: Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 2007), and especially chapter 5, “The Globalization of Labor,” pp. 161–192.
(15)Joseph E. Stiglitz, Making Globalization Work (New York-London: W. W. Norton & Co., 2007).
(16)Jeffrey Frieden, Will Global Capitalism Fall Again? [in:] Bruegel Essay and Lecture Series, June 2006.
(17)John Man, Genghis Khan: Life, Death, and Resurrection (London: Bantam Books, 2004).
(18)Jung Chang and John Halliday, Mao: The Unknown Story (London: Jonathan Cape, 2005), especially chapter 5, “Maoism Goes Global,” pp. 478–489.
(19)The CFA franc is used in 14 countries, including 12 former French colonies, as well as Guinea Bissau (formerly Portuguese) and Equitorial Guinea (formerly Spanish). The total population of the zone is about 120 million. The CFA was pegged first to the franc and, since 1999, to the euro at 1 to 655.957. In fact, there are two separate legal tenders at this peg, the West African franc (XAF) in Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo, and Cote d’Ivoire, and the Central African franc (XOF) in Chad, Gabon, Equitorial Guinea, Cameroon, Congo-Brazzaville, and the Central African Republic.
(20)The East Caribbean dollar (XCI) has been used since 1965 in the eight OECS countries with their population of 600 thousand, plus Anguilla and Montserrat. The British Virgin Islands, an OECS country, uses the U.S. dollar. The XCI is pegged at $1US to 2.7 EC$.
(21)Of the 27 E.U. member states, 16 belong to the Eurozone: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. Slovakia and Slovenia are the only two post-socialist countries in the group. The 16 countries have a total of some 330 million residents. All the other E.U. members states are under an obligation to join the Eurozone upon meeting the strict fiscal and monetary convergence criteria set by the Treaty of Maastricht. The only exceptions are Denmark and the U.K., which negotiated opt-out agreements. Aside from the CFA, the exchange rates of at least six currencies, including the Pacific franc (XPF), are pegged directly to the euro, and eight others have pegged floats (meaning that their values can fluctuate within fixed bands in relation to that of the euro) www.ecb.int.
(22)Robert A. Mundell. International Economics, (New York: Macmillan, 1968), and especially chapter 12, “A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas,” pp. 117–186; www.columbia.edu.
(23)Robert A. Mundell, The International Financial Architecture. The Euro Zone and Its Enlargement In Eastern Europe, [in] Distinguished Lectures Series, (Warsaw: Leon Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management (WSPiZ), 2000), www.tiger.edu.pl; One World Economy, One Global Currency? [in] Distinguished Lectures Series, (Warsaw: Leon Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management (WSPiZ), 2003), www.tiger.edu.pl.
(24)There is no shortage of either apologists or critics. The apologists include Johan Norberg, In Defenseof Global Capitalism (Washington: Cato Institute, 2003); Martin Wolf, Why Globalization Works (New Haven-London: Yale University Press, 2004); Jagdish Bhagwati, In Defense of Globalization (New York: Oxford University Press, 2004). As for the critics, see Will Hutton and Anthony Giddens (eds.), Global Capitalism (New York: The New Press, 2000); Naomi Klein, No Logo. Taking Aim at the Brand Bullies (London: Harper Collins, 2001); Manfred B. Steger, Globalism. The New Market Ideology (Lanham, Boulder, New York, and Oxford: Rowman Littlefield, 2002); and Joseph E. Stiglitz, op. cit. The controversy has also elicited contributions by Polish economists, sociologists, political scientists, and philosophers. The author of the present work has joined this debate on numerous occasions, both in works published in Polish and in those that have appeared in English, including Emerging Market Economies. Globalization and Development (Aldershot UK and Burlington VT: Ashgate, 2003), which focuses on the positive implications for development, and Grzegorz W. Kolodko (ed.), Globalization and Social Stress (Nova Science Publishers, New York 2005), which examines the downside.
الفصل الخامس: حال العالم الآن
(1)On the staggering scale of Dürer’s contribution to art, see Paul Johnson, Creators (New York: Harper Collins, 2006).
(2)For additional remarks on the methodology and calculation of data related to disparities in income distribution around the world, see Bob Sutcliffe, “Postscript to the Article World Inequality and Globalization,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Spring 2004, siteresources.worldbank.org.
(3)On the methodology used to construct the Human Development Index, as well as the full figures and the components of them for individual countries, see World Development Indicators 07 (Washington: The World Bank, 2007) and Development and the Next Generation: World Development Report (Washington: The World Bank, 2007).
(4)See World Health Organization, The World Health Report 2007. A Safer Future: Global Public Health Security in the 21st Century (Geneva: WHO Press, 2007), http://www.who.int/whr/2007/en/index. html.
(5)Armartya Sen, Development as Freedom (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2000).
(6)Freedom House provides methodological explanations and detailed data at its website, www.freedomhouse.org.
(7)Similarly, the Heritage Foundation features detailed information at www.heritage.org.
(8)Bjørn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001).
(9)Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Current State and Trends (Chicago: Island Press, 2005), www.millenniumassessment.org.
(11)Official reserve assets at the end of January 2008 were €46.2 billion, equal to $68.6 or 167.8 billion Polish zloty.
(12)Parikshit K. Basu, “Financial Globalisation and National Economic Sustainability,” Global Economic Quarterly, 3 (2002), 2, pp. 145–162; Dipak Dasgupta, Marc Uzan, and Dominic Wilson, eds., Capital Flows Without Crisis? Reconciling Capital Mobility and Economic Stability (London and New York: Routledge, 2001).
الفصل السادس: الليبرالية الجديدة الفاشلة وإرثها الهزيل
(1)Among those proclaiming this view is the 2004 Nobel Prize winner Edward C. Prescott, in his “Nobel Lecture: The transformation of Macroeconomic Policy and Research,” Journal of Political Economy, 114 (2006), 2, pp. 203–235.
(2)U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Ian MacLeod (Conservative) introduced the concept into the political and economic idiom as early as 1965, but it rose to prominence later, in the 1970s,, when the analysis of the stagflation process served as the basis for Gottfried Haberler’s economic theory. See Economic Growth and Stability: An Analysis of Economic Change and Policies (Los Angeles: Nash Publishing, 1974), and The Problem of Stagflation: Reflection on the Microfoundation of Macroeconomic Theory and Policy (Washington: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1985).
(3)János Kornai, Economics of Shortage (Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1980).
(4)Grzegorz W. Kolodko and Walter McMahon, “Stagflation and Shortageflation: A Comparative Approach,” Kylos, 40 (1987), 2, pp. 176–197.
(5)One of the most famous curves in the history of economic thought, the Phillips curve, illustrating the inflation/unemployment relation, was sprung upon the world by the New Zealand-born economist Alban W. Phillips in an article published in a British journal in 1958: “The Relationship Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wages in the United Kingdom in 1861–1957,” Economica, 25 (100), pp. 282–299.
(6)Edmund S. Phelps, Inflation Policy and Unemployment Theory (New York: W.W. Norton, 1972). The announcement of the award of the Nobel Prize emphasized the fact that Phelps’s work had led to a deeper understanding of the relationship between short- and long-term economic policy; Phelps also wrote about optimizing the distribution of national income (global output) and capital accumulation (the so-called golden rule of accumulation).
(7)David Harvey, A Brief History of Neoliberalism (New York: Oxford University Press, 2005), pp. 62¬63.
(8)Views in favor of or opposed to the “Washington Consensus” are surveyed in Grzegorz W. Kolodko, Post-Communist Transition and Post-Washington Consensus: The Lessons for Policy Reforms, [in] Mario I Blejer and Marko Skreb, eds., Transition: The First Decade (Cambridge MA and London: MIT Press, 2001), pp. 45–83. Joseph E. Stiglitz subjects the Consensus to a thoroughgoing critique in Making Globalization Work (New York and London: W.W. Norton, 2007).
(9)John Williamson coined the term “Washington Consensus” in the late 1980s. For the theoretical underpinnings and the interpretation of this concept in economic policy, as well as an interpretation of these interpretations by the man who invented the term, see his Differing Interpretations of the Washington Consensus [in] Distinguished Lectures Series No. 17, (Warsaw: Leon Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management [WSPiZ], 2005), www.tiger.edu.pl.
(10)On the basis of his own experience, John Perkins writes about the deliberate forcing of poor countries into the debt trap and the methods used along the way in Confessions of an Economic Hit Man (San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler, 2004).
(11)There is already an extensive literature on the issue, including Olivier Blanchard, The Economics of Post-Communist Transition (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997); Marie Lavigne, The Economics of Transition: From Socialist Economy to Market Economy (Chatham, Kent: Macmillan Press, 1995); Kazimierz Poznański, Poland’s Protracted Transition: Institutional Change and Economic Growth (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995); and Vladimir Popov, Shock Therapy versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons from Transition Economies after 15 Years of Reforms, TIGER Working Paper Series 82 (Warsaw: Leon Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management, 2006), www.tiger.edu.pl.
(12)Professor Kazimierz Laski of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Research (WIIW) issued a particularly chilling critique of “shock therapy” in “The Stabilization Plan for Poland,” Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter, 5 (1990, pp. 444–458), where he warned that industrial production would fall by 25 percent in the first year, 1990, causing mass unemployment. Unfortunately, he was right.
(13)Then, after the successful implementation of the program known as “Strategy for Poland”, the author of this book for the first time had stepped down from the Polish government. He was deputy prime minister and minister of finance in four governments in 1994–97 and 2002-03.
(14)The Dutch researcher Donald Kalff, who also has real-world business experience, dispels the idea that the American model of capitalism and management offers any sort of qualitative advantages and considers the implications of this fact for competitiveness and the growth of production in An UnAmerican Business: The Rise of the New European Enterprise Model (London: Kogan Page, 2005).
(15)For the negative impact of excessively unequal income distribution on the rate of economic growth, see Vito Tanzi, Ke-Young Chu, and Sanjeev Gupta, eds., Economic Policy and Inequality (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1999).
(16)Bernt Bratsberg et. al., Non-linearities in Inter-generational Earnings Mobility (London: Royal Economics Society, 2006); American Exceptionalism in a New Light (Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor, 2006).
(17)For the results of this Gallup poll, see “Testing Muslim Views: If You Want My Opinion,” The Economist, March 10, 2007, p. 63.
(18)I reflected on tensions in relations between the U.S. and Iran in a two-part article, “Triggering the Next Iranian Revolution,” The Globalist, March 14 (part one) and March 15 (part two), 2007. www.theglobalist.com.
(19)Results of a representative survey conducted by the BBC. See “Latin America and the United States: Spring Break,” The Economist, March 3, 2007, p. 49.
(20)Francis Fukuyama expresses some impassioned views on this subject in America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2006). See also the comparative analysis of the presidencies of George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush in Zbigniew Brzezinski, Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower (New York: Basic Books, 2007).
(21)At the end of 2007, the World Bank shocked and astonished a good many people by revising its previous estimates downward and announcing that the Chinese GDP, by purchasing power parity, was no less than 40 percent lower than previously estimated. This would mean that it hovered in the region of 6 trillion dollars, rather than 10 trillion. The GDP of India was “marked down” on an even greater scale, which meant that it was not slightly larger than that of Japan, but rather about half as large. This radical rewriting of the estimates did not cast the authors in the best light. How could they have been so wrong? And how could we know that they hadn’t gotten it wrong again? Understandably, GDP according to PPP will always be an approximation, at best. Taking into account all the methodological reservations, I have decided to stick to the original estimates, which seem to reflect reality more accurately.
(22)With fertility rates so high in these extremely poor countries (GDP per capita in Niger and Mali amounted to $1,000 and $1,200, respectively, by PPP in 2007), infant mortality below the age of five is 249 per thousand in Niger and 219 per thousand in Mali. By comparison, it is 31 in China and 4 in the most highly developed countries—Finland, Japan, and Sweden. In Poland, it is 8. See Development and the Next Generation (Washington: World Bank, 2006), pp. 292-293.
(23)Brzezinski, op. cit., p. 64.
(24)David Sater, “The Rise of the Russian Criminal State,” Prism, Sept. 4, 1998; Janine R. Wedel, Collision and Collusion: The Strange Case of Western Aid to Eastern Europe 1989–1998 (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1998), and “The Harvard Boys Do Russia,” The Nation, June 1, 1998, pp. 11–16.
(25)I published extensively on the subject at the time, even in the New York Times (“Russia Should Put Its People First,” July 7, 1998), The Economist (“Don’t Abandon Russia,” Feb. 27, 1999), and the World Bank’s new research series (“Ten Years of Post-socialist Transition: The Lessons for Policy Reforms,” Policy Research Working Paper 2095, April 1999). See also my long? CAHNGE for: major? book From Shock to Therapy: The Political Economy of Postsocialist Transformation (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2000). Earmath’s plea nevertheless remains relevant, since the truth has not yet come out decisively on top—if it ever will.
(26)See “The Challenger,” The Economist, Dec. 11, 2004.
(27)Peter Mandelson quoted in a story on the BBC News website: “EU-Russia Relations ‘At Low Ebb,’” April 20, 2007, news.bbc.co.uk.
(28)Cf. the 2007 CIA World Factbook (Washington: Central Intelligence Agency), www.cia.gov.
(29)Justin Yifu Lin, appointed Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of the World Bank in 2008, is also a member of the Academic Board of the TIGER Reserarch Center, where he has visited and lectured. See Lessons of China’s Transition from a Planned to a Market Economy [in] Distinguished Lectures Series No. 16, (Warsaw: Leon Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management [WSPiZ]), available at www.tiger.edu.pl.
(30)See Vito Tanzi and Ludger Schuknecht, “The Growth of Government and the Reform of the State in Industrial Countries,” IMF Working Papers 95/130 (1995).
الفصل السابع: ما التنمية؟ وعلام تعتمد؟
(1)See Nic Marks, Saamah Abdallah, Andrew Simms, and Sam Thompson, The Happy Planet Index (London: New Economics Foundation, 2006). Richard Layard also writes about the category of happiness as perceived from the economic perspective in Happiness: Lessons from a New Science (London: Penguin, 2006).
(2)Press release: “University of Leicester Produces the First Ever World Map of Happiness: Happiness Is Being Healthy, Wealthy and Wise,” www2.le.ac.uk; Adrian White, “World Map of Happiness,” Psych Talk, March 2007.
(3)A mathematical formula for calculating the degree of the human poverty gap can be found in the study Indicators for Monitoring the Millennium Development Goals: Definitions, Rationale, Concepts, and Sources (New York: United Nations, 2003), p. 9; mdgs.un.org.
(4)Development Goals Report 2007: Statistical Annex (New York: United Nations, 2007). The relevant information is available at mdgs.un.org.
(5)Questioning the assumption about diminishing returns from capital, Paul Romer, in particular, contributed to creating and developing an endogenous model of economic growth. See his “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,” Journal of Political Economy, 94 (1986), 5, pp. 1002–1037.
(6)See Robert E. Lucas, “On the Mechanics of Economic Development,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 22 (1988), 1, pp. 3–42.
(7)See George Mavrotas and Anthony Shorrocks, eds., Advancing Development: Core Themes in Global Economics (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007), a daunting tome (803 pages) rich in a variety of themes relevant to contemporary development economics, and containing as its Chapter 28 my text, Institutions, Policies, and Economic Development, pp. 531–554.
الفصل الثامن: الركود والتنمية: القوانين والسياسة والثقافة
(1)John Seabrook, “Sowing for Democracy,” The New Yorker, Aug. 27, 2007.
(2)Statistical data cited in “Caught in the Middle, As Usual,” The Economist, Nov. 12, 2005, p. 49.
(3)See Andres Åslund, How Russia Became a Market Economy (Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1995).
(4)See Max Weber, The Protestant Ethic and the “Spirit” of Capitalism, translated and with an introduction and additional selections by Peter Baehr and Gordon C. Wells (New York: Pengiun, 2002).
(5)The 1996 film explains more about the essence of economic populism, and not only in its Peronist variant, than some scholarly studies of the subject.
(6)Elhanan Helpman writes about the meanderings of economic growth and the complexities of its interpretation in a work that is both interesting and accessible to an exceptional degree, the aptly titled The Mystery of Economic Growth (Oxford and New York: Harvard University Press, 2004).
الفصل التاسع: نظرية المصادفة في التنمية، والبراجماتية الجديدة
(1)Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2002), p. 66
(2)Dani Rodrik, Let a Thousand Growth Models Bloom, www.project-syndicate.org; Rethinking Growth Strategies [in] WIDER Perspectives on Global Development [Houndmills, Hampshire, and New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005), pp. 201–223.
الفصل العاشر: المستقبل الغامض
(1)See National Intelligence Council, Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project. Based on Consultations with Nongovernmental Experts around the World (Washington, Nov. 2004), www.foia.cia.gov.net.
(2)William Easterly, The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists’ Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics (Cambridge MA and London: MIT Press, 2002); The White Man’s Burden: Why the West’s Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good (New York: Penguin Press, 2006).
(3)Paul Collier, The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2007).
(4)Ilyana Kuziemko and Eric Werker, “How Much Is a Seat on the Security Council Worth? Foreign Aid and Bribery at the United Nations,” Journal of Political Economy, 114 (2006), 3, pp. 413–451.
(5)The members of ASEAN, the Association of South East Asian Nations, are Burma (Myanmar), Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
(6)All but one of the former Soviet Republics are in the loosely-affiliated CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), with the exception of the three Baltic States—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—that have joined the E.U. Georgia has left the grouping after recent military conflict with Russia. The members of the CIS are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.
(7)The member states of Mercosur are Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The affiliated members of the associated free-trade zone are Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.
(8)The members of NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement, are Canada, Mexico, and the United States.
(9)The Southern African Development Community has 15 members: Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, The Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
(10)The members of ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West African States, are Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Gambia, Ghana, Guinee, Guinee Bissau, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.
(11)In 2007, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka were joined as members of SAARC (The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) by Afghanistan.
(12)The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG), usually referred to as the Gulf Cooperation Council, groups together Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
(13)The member states of the E.U. are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Croatia and Turkey, negotiating their accession, have associated status.
(14)See Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios (Chicago: Island Press, 2005), www.millenniumassessment.org.
(15)Thirty years after the first, best-known work on the resource-related limits to growth, we have a new work by the redoubtable authorial team of Donelli H. Meadows, Dennis Meadows, and Jorgen Andrews, The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (London and Sterling VA: Earthscan, 2004).
(16)See General Accountability Office, U.S. Congress, Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in oil Production (GAO-07-283), Feb. 2007.
(17)The cynicism and moral turpitude of the donors of “economic aid” to the poorest countries form the subject of a provocative and highly concrete book by Graham Hancock, Lords of Poverty (Nairobi: Camerapix Publishers International, 2004).
(18)Orhan Pamuk, Snow (New York: Knopf, 2004) pp 240.
(19)David Edgerton, The Shock of the Old: Technology and Global History since 1900 (London: Profile Books, 2006).
(20)Fukuyama, op. cit., p. 9-10.
(21)See “A World of Connections: A Special Report on Telecoms,” The Economist, April 28, 2007.
(22)Jack Hirshleifer writes about ways of overcoming the economic consequences of thermonuclear war in Economic Behavior in Adversity (Brighton: Wheatsheaf Books, 1987).
(23)In 2001, John E. Bortle, the retired fire chief of Westchester, New York, proposed a system for measuring the darkness of the night sky on a scale of one to nine, which has gained acceptance among amateur astronomers. Bortle is a columnist for Sky & Telescope magazine, www.shopatsky.com.
(24)See Mark Abley, Spoken Here: Travels among Threatened Languages (Montreal: Vintage Canada, 2004).