الملاحظات
(أ) عالم حضارات
الفصل الأول: الحقبة الجديدة في السياسة العالمية
(1)
Henry A. Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon &
Schuster, 1994), pp. 23-24.
(2)
H. D. S. Greenway’s phrase, Boston Globe, 3 December 1992,
p. 19.
(3)
Vaclav Hevel, “The New Measure of Man,” New York Times, 8 July 1994,
p. A27; Jacques Delors, “Questions Concerning European Security,” Address,
International Institute for Strategic Studies, Brussels, 10 September 1993,
p. 2.
(4)
Thomas S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Chicago:
University of Chicago Press, 1962), pp. 17-18.
(5)
John Lewis Gaddis, “Toward the Post-Cold War World,” Foreign, 70
(Spring 1991), 101; Judith Goldstein and Robert O. Keohane, “Ideas and Foreign
Policy: An Analytical Framework,” in Goldstein and Keohane, eds, Ideas and Foreign
Policy: Beliefs, Institutions, and Political Change (Ithaca: Cornell University
Press, 1993), pp. 8–17.
(6)
Francis Fukuyama, “The End of History,” The National Interest, 16 (Summer 1989), 4,
18.
(7)
Address to the Congress Reporting on the Yalta Conference, “1 March
1945, in Samuel I. Rosenman, ed., Public Papers and Addresses of Franklin D. Roosevelt
(New York: Russell and Russel, 1969), XIII, 586.
(8)
See Max Singer and Aaron Wildavsky, The Real World Order: Zones of Peace, Zones of
Turmoil (Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1993); Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, “Introduction:
The End of the Cold War in Europe,” in Keohane, Nye, and Stanley Hoffmann, eds., After
the Cold War: International Institutions and State Strategies in Europe, 1989–1991
(Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1993), p. 6; and James M. Goldgeier and Michael
McFaul, “A Tale of Two Worlds: Core and Periphery in the Post-Cold War Era,” International
Organization, 46 (Spring 1992), 467–491.
(9)
See F. S. C. Northrop, The Meeting of East and Inquiry Concerning
World Understanding (New York: Macmillan, 1946).
(10)
Edward W. Said, Orientalism (New York: Pantheon Books, 1978), pp.
43-44.
(11)
See Kenneth N. Waltz, “The Emerging Structure of International
Politics,” International Security, 18 (Fall 1993), 44–79, John J. Mearsheimer, “Back
to the Future: instability in Europe after the Cold War,” International Security,
15 (summer 1990), 5–56.
(12)
Stephen D. Krasner questions the importance of Westphalia as a
dividing point, See his “Westphalia and All That,” in Goldstein and keohane, eds.,
Ideas and Foreign Policy, pp. 235–264.
(13)
Zbignew Brzzinski, Out of Control: Global Turmoil on the Eve of the
Twenty-first Century (New York: Scribner, 1993); Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Pandaemonium
Ethnicity in International Politics (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993); see also
Robert
Kaplan, “The Coming Anarchy,” Atlantic Monthly, 273 (Feb. 1994),
44–76.
(14)
See New York Times, 7 February 1993, pp. 1, 14; and Gabriel
Schoenfeld, “Outer Limits,” Post-Soviet Prospects, 17 (Jan. 1993), 3 , citing
figures from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
(15)
See Gaddis, “Toward the Post-Cold War World”; Benjamin R. Barber, “Jihad vs. McWorld,”
Atlantic Monthly, 269 (March 1992), 53–63, and Jihad vs. McWorld
(New York: Times Books, 1995); Hans Mark, “After Victory in the Cold War: The Global
Village or Tribal Warfare,” in J. J. Lee and Walter Korter, eds., Europe in
Transition: Political, Economic, and Security Prospects for the 1990s (LBJ School
of
Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin, March 1990), pp.
19–27.
(16)
John J. Mearsheimer, “The Case for a Nuclear Deterrent,” Foreign
Affairs, 72 (Summer 1993), 54.
(17)
Lester B. Pearson, Democracy in World Politics (Princeton: Princeton
University Press, 1955), pp. 82-83.
(18)
Quite independently Johan Galtung developed an analysis that closely
parallels mine on the salience to world politics of the seven or eight major
civilizations and their core states. See his “The Emerging Conflict Formations,”
in Katharine and Majid Tehranian, eds., Restructuring for World Peace: On the
Threshold of the Twenty-first Century (Cresskill NJ: Hampton Press, 1992), pp.
23-24. Galtung sees seven regional-cultural groupings emerging dominated by
hegemons: the United States, European Community, Japan, China, Russia, India, and
an “Islamic core.” Other authors who in the early 1990s advanced similar arguments
concerning civilizations include: Michael Lind, “American as an Ordinary Country,”
American Enterprise, 1 (Sept./Oct. 1990), 19–23; Barry Buzan, “New Patterns of
Global Security in the Twenty-first Century,” International Affairs, 67 (1991),
441, 448-449; Robert Gilpin, “The Cycle of Great Powers: Has it Finally Been
Broken?” (Princeton University, unpublished paper, 19 May 1993), pp. 6 ff.;
William S. Lind, “North-South Relations: Returning to a World of Cultures in
Conflict,” Current World Leaders, 35 (Dec. 1992), 1073–1080, and “Defending
Western Culture,” Foreign Policy, 84 (Fall 1994), 40–50; “Looking Back from 2992:
A World History, chap. 13: The Disastrous 21st Century,” Economist, 26 December
1992–8 January 1993, pp. 17–19; “The New World Order: Back to the Future,”
Economist, 8 January 1994, pp. 21–23; “A Survey of Defence and the Democracies,”
Economist, 1 September 1990; Zsolt Rostovanyi, “Clash of Civilizations and
Cultures: Unity and Disunity of World Order,” (unpublished paper, 29 March 1993);
Michael Vlahos, “Culture and Foreign Policy,” Foreign Policy, 82 (Spring 1991),
59–78; Donald J. Puchala, “The History of the Future of International Relations,”
Ethics and International Affairs, 8 (1994), 177–202; Mahdi Elmandjra, “Cultural
Diversity: Key to Survival in the Future,” (Paper presented to First Mexican
Congress on Future Studies, Mexico City, September 1994), In 1991 Elmandjra
published in Arabic a book which appeared in French the following year entitled
Premiere Guerre Civilisationnelle (Casablanca; Ed. Toukbal, 1982,
1994).
(19)
Fernand Braudel, On Histroy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press,
1980), pp. 210-211.
الفصل الثاني: الحضارات في التاريخ واليوم
(1)
“World history is the history of large cultures.” Oswald Spengler,
Decline of the West (New York: A. A. Knopf, 1926–1928), II, 170. The major works by
these scholars analyzing the nature and dynamics of civilizations include: Max Weber,
The Sociology of Religion (Boston: Beacon Press, trans. Ephraim Fischoff, 1968); Emile
Durkheim and Marcel Mauss, “Note on the Notion of Civilization,” Social Research,
38
(1971), 808–813; Oswald Spengler, Decline of the West; Pitirim Sorokin, Social and
Cultural Dynamics (New York: American Book Co., 4 vols., 1937–1985); Arnold Toynbee,
A
Study of History (London: Oxford University Press, 12 vols., 1934–1961); Alfred Weber,
Kulturgeschichte als Kultursoziologie (Leiden: A. W. Sijthoff’s
Utigerversmaatschappij N.V., 1935); A. L. Kroeber, Configurations of Culture Growth
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 1944), and Style and Civilizations
(Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1973); Philip Bagby, Culture and History: Prolegomena
to the Comparative Study of Civilizations (London: Longmans, Green 1958); Carroll
Quigley, The Evolution of Civilizations: An Introduction to Historical Analysis (New
York: Macmillan, 1961); Rushton Coulborn, The Origin of Civilized Societies
(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1959); S. N. Eisenstadt, “Cultural Traditions
and Political Dynamics: The Origins and Modes of Ideological Politics,” British
Journal of Sociology, 32 (June 1981), 155–181; Fernand Braudel, History of
Civilizations (New York: Allen Lane—Penguin Press, 1994) and On History (Chicago:
University of Chicago Press, 1980); William H. McNeill, The Rise of the West: A History
of the Human Community (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963); Adda B. Bozeman,
“Civilizations Under Stress,” Virginia Quarterly Review, 51 (Winter 1975), 1–18,
Strategic Intelligence and Statecraft (Washington: Brassey’s (US), 1992), and
Politics and Culture in International History: From the Ancient Near East to the
Opening of the Modern Age (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 1994);
Christopher Dawson, Dynamics of World History (LaSalle, IL: Sherwood Sugden Co., 1978),
and The Movement of World Revolution (New York: Sheed and Ward, 1959);
Immanuel Wallerstein, Geopolitics and Geoculture: Essays on the Changing World-system
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992); Felipe Fernández-Armesto, Millennium:
A History of the Last Thousand Years (New York: Scribners, 1995). To these works could
be added the last, tragically marked work of Louis Hartz, A Synthesis of World History
(Zurich: Humanity Press, 1983), which “with remarkable prescience,” as Samuel Beer
commented, “foresees a division of mankind very much like the present pattern of the
post-Cold War world” into five great “culture areas”: Christian, Muslim, Hindu,
Confucian, and African. Memorial Minute, Louis Hartz, Harvard University Gazette,
89
(May 27, 1994). An indispensable summary overview and introduction to the analysis
of
civilizations is Matthew Melko, The Nature of Civilizations (Boston: Porter Sargent,
1969). I am also indebted for useful suggestions to the critical paper on my Foreign
Affairs article by Hayward W. Alker, Jr., “If Not Huntington’s ‘Civilizations,’
Then Whose?” (unpublished paper, Massachusetts Insitute of Technology, 25 March
1994).
(2)
Braudel, On History, pp. 177–181, 212–214, and History of
Civilizations, pp. 4-5; Gerrit W. Gong, The Standard of “Civilization” in
International Society (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1984), 81 ff., 97–100; Wallerstein,
Geopolitics and Geoculture, pp.160 ff. and 215 ff.; Arnold J. Toynbee, Study of
History, X, 274-275, and Civilization on Trial (New York: Oxford University Press,
1948), p. 24.
(3)
Braudel, On History, p. 205, For an extended review of definitions of
culture and civilization, especially the German distinction, see A. L. Kroeber and
Clyde Kluckhohn, Culture: A Critical Review of Concepts and Definitions (Cambridge:
Papers of the Peabody Museum of American Archaeology and Ethnology, Harvard
University, vol. XLVII, No. 1, 1952), passim but esp. pp. 15–29.
(4)
Bozeman, “Civilizations Under Stress,” p. 1.
(5)
Durkheim and Mauss, “Notion of Civilizations,” p. 811; Braudel, On
History, pp. 177, 202; Melko, Nature of Civilizations, p. 8; Wallerstein, Geopolitics
and Geoculture, p. 215; Dawson, Dynamics of World History, pp. 51, 402; Spengler,
Decline of the West, I, p. 31. Interestingly, the International Encyclopedia of the
Social Sciences (New York: Macmillan and Free Press, ed. David L. Sills, 17 vols.,
1968) contains no primary article on “civilizations” or “civilizations.” The “concept
of civilizations” (singular) is treated in a subsection of the article called
“Urban Revolution,” while civilizations (plural) receive passing mention in an
article called “Culture”.
(6)
Herodotus, The Persian Wars (Harmondsworth, England: Penguin Books,
1972), pp. 543-544.
(7)
Edward A. Tiryakian, “Reflections on the Sociology of Civilizations,”
Sociological Analysis, 35 (Summer 1974), 125.
(8)
Toynbee, Study of History, I, 455, quoted in Melko, Nature of
Civilizations, pp. 8-9; and Braudel, On History, p. 202.
(9)
Braudel, History of Civilizations, p. 35, and On History, pp. 209-210.
(10)
Bozeman, Strategic Intelligence and Statecraft, p. 26.
(11)
Quigley, Evolution of Civilizations, pp. 146 ff.; Melko, Nature of
Civilizations, pp. 101 ff., See D. C. Somervell, “Argument” in his abridgment of Arnold
J. Toynbee, A Study of History, vols. I-VI (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1946),
pp. 569 ff.
(12)
Lucian W. Pye, “China: Erratic State, Frustrated Society,” Foreign
Affairs, 69 (Fall 1990), 58.
(13)
See Quigley, Evolution of Civilizations, chap. 3, esp. pp. 77, 84; Max
Weber, “The Social Psychology of the World Religions,” in From Max Weber: Essays in
Sociology (London: Routledge, trans. and ed. H. H. Gerth and C. Wright Mills, 1991),
p. 267; Bagby, Culture and History, pp. 165–174; Spengler, Decline of the West, II,
31 ff; Toynbee, Study of History, I, 133; XII, 546-547; Braudel, History of
Civilizations, passim; McNeill, The Rise of the West, passim; and Rostovanyi, “Clash
of Civilizations,” pp. 8-9.
(14)
Melko, Nature of Civilizations, p. 133.
(15)
Braudel, On History, p. 226.
(16)
For a major 1990s addition to this literature by one who knows both
cultures well, see Claudio Veliz, The New World of the Gothic Fox (Berkeley:
University of California Press, 1994).
(17)
See Charles A. and Mary R. Beard, The Rise of American Civilization (New York: Macmillan,
2 vols., 1927) and Max Lerner, America as a Civilization (New
York: Simon & Schuster, 1957). With patriotic boosterism, Lerner argues
that “For good or ill, America is what is is—a culture in its own right, with many
characteristic lines of power and meaning of its own, ranking with Greece and Rome
as
one of the great distinctive civilizations of history.” Yet he also admits, “Almost
without exception the great theories of history find no room for any concept of
America as a civilization in its own right” (pp. 58-59).
(18)
On the role of fragments of European civilization creating new
societies in North America, Latin America, South Africa, and Australia, see Louis
Hartz, The Founding of New Societies: Studies in the History of the United States,
Latin America, South Africa, Canada, and Australia (New York: Harcourt, Brace
& World, 1964).
(19)
Dawson, Dynamics of World History, p. 128, See also Mary C. Bateson, “Beyond Sovereignty:
An Emerging Global Civilization,” in R. B. J. Walker and Saul H.
Mendlovitz, eds., Contending Sovereignties: Redefining Political Community (Boulder:
Lynne Rienner, 1990), pp. 148-149.
(20)
Toynbee classifies both Therevada and Lamaist Buddhism as fossil
civilizations, Study of History, I, 35, 91-92.
(21)
See, for example, Bernard Lewis, Islam and the West (New York: Oxford
University Press, 1993); Toynbee, Study of History, chap. IX, “Contacts between
Civilizations in Space (Encounters between Contemporaries),” VIII, 88 ff.; Benjamin
Nelson, “Civilizational Complexes and Intercivilization Encounters,” Sociological
Analysis, 34 (Summer 1973), 79–105.
(22)
S. N. Eisentadt, “Cultural Traditions and Political Dynamics: The
Origins and Modes of Ideological Politics,” British Journal of Sociology, 32 (June
1981), 157, and “The Axial Age: The Emergence of Transcendental Visions and the Rise
of Clerics,” Archives Europeennes de Sociologie, 22 (No. 1, 1982), 298, See also
Benjamin I. Schwartz, “The Age of Transcendence in Wisdom, Revolution, and Doubt:
Perspectives on the First Millennium B. C.,” Daedalus, 104 (Spring 1975), 3. The
concept of the Axial Age derives from Karl Jaspers, Vom Ursprung und Ziel der
Geschichte (Zurich: Artemisverlag, 1949).
(23)
Toynbee, Civilization on Trial, p. 69. Cf., William H. McNeill, The
Rise of the West, pp. 295–298, who emphasizes the extent to which by the advent of
the
Christian era, “Organized trade routes, both by land and by sea … linked the
four great cultures of the continent.”
(24)
Braudel, On History, p. 14: “… cultural influence came in small
doses, delayed by the length and slowness of the journeys they had to make. If
historians are to be believed, the Chinese fashions of the T’ang period [618–907]
travelled so slowly that they did not reach the island of Cyprus and the brilliant
court of Lusignan until the fifteenth century. From there they spread, at the quicker
speed of Mediterranean trade, to France and the eccentric court of Charles VI, where
hennins and shoes with long pointed toes became immensely popular, the heritage of
a
long vanished world—much as light still reaches us from stars already
extinct.”
(25)
See Toynbee, Study of History, VIII, 347-348.
(26)
McNeill, Rise of the West, p. 547.
(27)
D. K. Fieldhouse, Economics and Empire, 1830–1914
(London: Macmillan, 1984), p. 3; F. J. C. Hearnshaw, Sea Power and Empire (London:
George Harrap and Co, 1940), p. 179.
(28)
Geoffrey Parker, The Military Revolution: Military Innovation and
the Rise of the West (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988), p. 4:
Michael Howard, “The Military Factor in the European Expansion,” in Hedley Bull
and Adam Watson, eds., The Expansion of International Society (Oxford: Clarendon
Press, 1984), pp. 33 ff.
(29)
A. G. Kenwood and A. L. Lougheed, The Growth of the International
Economy 1820–1990 (London: Routledge, 1992), pp. 78-79; Angus Maddison, Dynamic Forces
in Capitalist Development (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991), pp. 326-27; Alan
S. Blinder, reported in the New York Times, 12 March 1995, p. 5E, See also Simon
Kuznets. “Quantitative Aspects of the Economic Growth of Nations—X. Level and
Structure of Foreign Trade: Long-term Trends,” Economic Development and Cultural
Change, 15 (Jan. 1967, part II), pp. 2–10.
(30)
Charles Tilly, “Reflections on the History of
European State-making.” In Tilly, ed., The Formation of National States in
Western Europe (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1975), p.
18.
(31)
R. R. Palmer, “Frederick the Great, Guibert, Bulow:
From Dynastic to National War,” in Peter Paret, ed., Makers of Modern Strategy
from Machiavelli to the Nuclear Age (Princeton: Princeton University Press,
1986), p. 119.
(32)
Edward Mortimer. “Christianity and Islam,” International Affain, 67 (Jan. 1991), 7.
(33)
Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society (New York: Columbia University
Press, 1977), pp. 9–13, See also Adam Watson, The Evolution of International Society
(London: Routledge, 1992), and Barry Buzan, “From International System to
International Society: Structural Realism and Regime Theory Meet the English
School,” International Organization, 47 (Summer 1993), 327–352, who distinguishes
between “civilizational” and “functional” models of international society and
concludes that “civilizational international societies have dominated the
historical record” and that there “appear to be no pure cases of functional
international societies” (p. 336).
(34)
Spengler, Decline of the West, I, 93-94.
(35)
Toynbee, Study of History, I, 149 ff, 154, 157
ff.
(36)
Braudel, On History, p. xxxiii.
الفصل الثالث: حضارة عالمية؟ التحديث والتغريب
(1)
V. S. Naipaul, “Our Universal Civilization,” The 1990 Wriston
Lecture, The Manhattan Institute, New York Review of Books, 30 October 1990; p.
20.
(2)
See James Q. Wilson, The Moral Sense (New York: Free Press, 1993);
Michael Walzer, Thick and Thin: Moral Argument at Home and Abroad (Notre Dame:
University of Notre Dame Press, 1994), esp. chaps. 1 and 4; and for a brief overview,
Frances V. Harbour, “Basic Moral Values: A Shared Core,” Ethics and International
Affairs, 9 (1995), 155–170
(3)
Vaclav Havel, “Civilization’s Thin Veneer,” Harvard Magazine, 97
(July-August 1995), 32.
(4)
Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World
Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1977), p. 317.
(5)
John Rockwell, “The New Colossus: American Culture as Power Export,”
and several authors, “Channel-Surfing Through U.S. Culture in 20 Lands,” New York
Times, 30 January 1994, sec. 2, pp. 1 ff; David Rieff, “A Global Culture,” World Policy
Journal, 10 (Winter 1993-94), 73–81
(6)
Michael Vlahos, “Culture and Foreign Policy,” Foreign Policy, 82 (Spring 1991), 69;
Kishore Mahbubani, “The Dangers of Decadence: What the Rest Can
Teach the West,” Foreign Affairs, 72 (Sept./Oct. 1993), 12.
(7)
Aaron L. Friedberg, “The Future of American Power,” Political
Science Quarterly, 109 (Spring 1994), 15.
(8)
Richard Parker, “The Myth of Global News,” New Perspectives
Quarterly, 11 (Winter 1994), 41–44; Michael Gurevitch, Mark R. Levy, and Itzhak Roeh.
“The Global Newsroom: convergences and diversities in the globalization of television
news,” in Peter Dahlgren and Colin Sparks, eds., Communication and Citizenship:
Journalism and the Publics Sphere in the New Media (London: Routledge, 1991), p.
215.
(9)
Ronald Dore, “Unity and Diversity in World Culture,” in Hedley Bull
and Adam Watson, eds., The Expansion of International Society (Oxford: Oxford
University Press, 1984), p. 423.
(10)
Robert L. Bartley, “The Case for Optimism: The West Should Believe
in Itself,” Foreign Affairs, 72 (Sept./Oct. 1993), 16.
(11)
See Joshua A. Fishman, “The Spread of English as a New Perspective
for the Study of Language Maintenance and Language Shift,” in Joshua A. Fishman,
Robert L. Cooper, and Andrew W. Conrad, The Spread of English: The Sociology of
English as an Additional Language (Rowley, MA: Newbury House, 1977), pp. 108
ff.
(12)
Fishman, “Spread of English as a New Perspective,” pp. 118-119.
(13)
Randolf Quirk, in Braj B. Kachru, The Indianization of English
(Delhi: Oxford, 1983), p. ii; R. S. Gupta and Kapil Kapoor, eds., English in India:
Issues and Problems (Delhi: Academic Foundation, 1991), p. 21 Cf. Sarvepalli Gopal,
“The English Language in India,” Encounter, 73 (July/Aug. 1989), 16, who estimates
35
million Indians “speak and write English of some type or other.” World Bank, World
Development Report 1985, 1991 (New York: Oxford University Press), table
1.
(14)
Kapoor and Gupta, “Introduction,” In Gupta and Kapoor, eds., English
in India, p. 21; Gopal, “English Language,” p. 16.
(15)
Fishman, “Spread of English as a New Perspective,” p. 115.
(16)
See Newsweek, 19 July 1993, p. 22.
(17)
Quoted by R. N. Srivastava and V. P. Sharma, “Indian English Today,”
in Gupta and Kapoor, eds., English in India, p. 191; Gopal, “English Language,” p.
17
(18)
New York Times, 16 July 1993, p. A9; Boston Globe, 15 July 1993, p.
13.
(19)
In addition to the projections in the World Christian
Encyclopedia, see also those of Jean Bourgeois-Pichat, “Le nombre des hommes: État
et prospective,” in Albert Jacquard et al., Les Scientifiques Parlent (Paris:
Hachette, 1987), pp. 140, 143, 151, 154–156.
(20)
Edward Said on V. S. Naipaul, quoted by Brent Staples, “Con Men and
Conquerors,” New York Times Book Review, 22 May 1994, p. 42.
(21)
A. G. Kenwood and A. L. Lougheed, The Growth of the International
Economy 1820–1990 (London: Routledge, 3rd ed., 1992), pp. 78-79; Angus Maddison,
Dynamic Forces in Capitalist Development (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991),
pp. 326-327; Alan S. Blinder, New York Times, 12 March 1995, p. 5E.
(22)
David M. Rowe, “The Trade and Security Paradox in International
Politics,” (unpublished manuscript, Ohio State University, 15 Sept. 1994), p.
16.
(23)
Dale C. Copeland, “Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of
Trade Expectations,” International Security 20 (Spring 1996),
25.
(24)
William J. McGuire and Claire V. McGuire, “Content and Process in
the Experience of Self,” Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 21 (1988),
102.
(25)
Donald L. Horowitz, “Ethnic Conflict Management for Policy-Makers,”
in Joseph V. Montville and Hans Binnendijk eds., Conflict and Peacemaking in
Multiethnic Societies (Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1990), p. 121.
(26)
Roland Robertson, “Globalization and Theory and Civilizational
Analysis,” Comparative Civilizations Review, 17 (Fall 1987), 22; Jeffery A. Shad Jr.,
“Globalization and Islamic Resurgence,” Comparative Civilizations Review, 19 (Fall
1988), 67.
(27)
See Cyril E. Black, The Dynamics of Modernization: A Study in
Comparative History (New York: Harper & Row, 1966), pp. 1–34; Reinhard
Bendix “Tradition and Modernity Reconsidered,” Comparative Studies in Society and
History, 9 (April 1967), 292-293
(28)
Fernand Braudel, On History (Chicago: University of Chicago Press,
1980), p. 213.
(29)
The literature on the distinctive characteristics of Western civilization is, of course,
immense. See, among others, William H. McNeill, Rise of the West: A History of the
Human Community (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963); Braudel, On History
and earlier works; Immanuel Wallerstein, Geopolitics and Geoculture: Essays on the
Changing World-System (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991). Karl W. Deutsch
has produced a comprehensive, succinct, and highly suggestive comparison of the West
and nine other civilizations in terms of twenty-one geographical, cultural, economic,
technological, social, and political factors, emphasizing the extent to which the
West differs from the others. See Karl W. Deutsch, “On Nationalism, World Regions,
and the Nature of the West,” in Per Torsvik, ed. Mobilization, Center-Periphery Structures,
and Nation-building: A Volume in Commemoration of Stein Rokkan (Bergen: Universitetsforlaget,
1981), pp. 51–93. For a succinct summary of the salient and distinctive features of
Western civilization in 1500, see Charles Tilly, “Reflections on the History of European
State-making,” in Tilly, ed., The Formation of National States in Western Europe (Princeton:
Princeton University Press, 1975), pp. 18ff.
(30)
Deutsch, “Nationalism, World Regions and the West,” p. 77.
(31)
See Robert D. Putnam, Making Democracy Work: Civil Traditions in
Modern Italy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993), p. 121
ff.
(32)
Deutsch, “Nationalism, World Regions, and the West,” p. 78, See also
Stein Rokkan, “Dimensions of State Formation and Nation-building: A Possible
Paradigm for Research on Variations within Europe,” in Charles Tilly, The Formation
of
National States in Western Europe (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1975), p.
576, and Putnam, Making Democracy Work, pp. 124–127.
(33)
Geert Hofstede, “National Cultures in Four Dimensions: A Research-based Theory of
Cultural Differences among Nations,” International Studies of
Management and Organization, 13 (1983), 52.
(34)
Harry C. Triandis, “Cross-Cultural Studies of Individualism and
Collectivism,” in Nebraska Symposium on Motivation 1989 (Lincoln: University of
Nebraska Press, 1990), 44–133, and New York Times, 25 December 1990, p. 41, See also
George C. Lodge and Ezra F. Vogel, eds., Ideology and National Competitiveness: An
Analysis of Nine Countries (Boston: Harvard Business School Press 1987),
passim.
(35)
Discussions of the interaction of civilizations almost inevitably
come up with some variation of this response typology. See Arnold J. Toynbee, Study
of
History (London: Oxford University Press, 1935–61), II, 187 ff., VIII, 152-153, 214;
John L. Esposito, The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality (New York: Oxford University
Press, 1992), pp. 53–62; Daniel Pipes, In the Path of God: Islam and Political Power
(New York: Basic Books, 1983), pp. 105–142.
(36)
Pipes, Path of God, p. 349.
(37)
William Pfaff, “Reflections: Economic Development,” New Yorker, 25
December 1978, p. 47.
(38)
Pipes, Path of God, pp. 197-198.
(39)
Ali Al-Amin Mazrui, Cultural Forces in the World Politics (London:
James Currey, 1990), pp. 4-5
(40)
Esposito, Islamic Threat, p. 55; See generally, pp. 55–62; and Pipes,
Path of God, pp. 114–120
(41)
Rainer C. Baum, “Authority and Identity: The Invariance Hypothesis
II,” Zeitschrift für Soziologie, 6 (Oct. 1977), 368-369. See also Rainer C. Baum,
“Authority Codes: The Invariance Hypothesis,” Zeitschrift für Soziologie 6 (Jan. 1977),
5–28.
(42)
See Adda B. Bozeman, “Civilizations Under Stress,” Virginia
Quarterly Review, 51 (Winter 1975), 5 ff.; Leo Frobenius, Paideuma: Umrisse einer
Kultur-und Seelenlehre (Munich: C. H. Beck, 1921), pp. 11 ff; Oswald Spengler, The
Decline of the West (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2 vols., 1926, 1928), II, 57
ff.
(43)
Bozeman, “Civilizations Under Stress,” p. 7.
(44)
William E. Naff, “Reflections on the Question of ‘East and West’
from the Point of View of Japan, “Comparative Civilizations Review, 13/14 (Fall 1985
& Spring 1986), 222.
(45)
David E. Apter, “The Role of Traditionalism in the Political
Modernization of Ghana and Uganda,” World Politics, 13 (Oct. 1960),
47–68.
(46)
S. N. Eisenstadt, “Transformation of Social, Political, and Cultural
Orders in Modernization,” American Sociological Review, 30 (Oct. 1965), 659–673.
(47)
Pipes, Path of God, pp. 107,191.
(48)
Braudel, On History, pp. 212-213
(ب) الميزان المتغير للحضارات
الفصل الرابع: اضمحلال الغرب: القوة والثقافة والعودة إلى المحلية
(1)
Jeffery R. Barnett, “Exclusion as National Security Policy,”
Parameters, 24 (Spring 1994), 54.
(2)
Aaron L. Friedberg, “The Future of American Power,” Political
Science Quarterly, 109 (Spring 1994), 20-21.
(3)
Hedley Bull, “The Revolt Against the West,” in Hedley Bull and Adam
Watson, eds., Expansion of International Society (Oxford: Oxford University Press,
1984), p. 219.
(4)
Barry G. Buzan, “New Patterns of Global Security in the Twenty-first Century,” International
Affairs, 67 (July 1991), 451.
(5)
Project 2025, (draft) 20 September 1991, p. 7; World Bank, World
Development Report 1990 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990), pp. 229, 244; The
World Almanac and Book of Facts 1990 (Mahwah, NJ: Funk & Wagnalls, 1989), p.
539
(6)
United Nations Development Program, Human Development Report 1994 (New York: Oxford
University Press, 1994), pp. 136–137, 207–211; World Bank, “World
Development Indicators,” World Development Report 1984, 1986, 1990, 1994; Bruce
Russett et al., World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators (New Haven: Yale
University Press, 1994), pp. 222–226.
(7)
Paul Bairoch, “Interantion Industrialization Levels from 1750 to
1980,” Journal of European Economic History, 11 (Fall 1982), 296,
304.
(8)
Economist, 15 May 1993. p. 83, citing International Monetary Fund,
World Economic Outlook; “The Global Economy,” Economist, 1 October 1994, pp. 3–9;
Wall
Street Journal, 17 May 1993, p. A12; Nicholas D. Kristof, “The Rise of China,” Foreign
Affairs, 72 (Nov./Dec. 1993), 61; Kishore Mahbubani, “The Pacific Way,” Foreign
Affairs, 74 (Jan./Feb. 1995), 100–103.
(9)
International Institute for Strategic Studies, “Tables and
Analyses,” The Military Balance 1994-95 (London: Brassey’s,
1994).
(10)
Project 2025, p. 13; Richard A. Bitzinger, The Globalization of Arms
Production: Defense Markets in Transition (Washington, D.C.: Defense Budget Project,
1993), passim.
(11)
Joseph S. Nye, Jr., “The Changing Nature of World Power,” Political
Science Quarterly, 105 (Summer 1990), 181-182.
(12)
William H. McNeill, The Rise of the West: A History of the Human
Community (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963), p. 545.
(13)
Ronald Dore, “Unity and Diversity in Contemporary World Culture,” in
Bull and Watson, eds., Expansion of International Society, pp.
420-421.
(14)
William E. Naff, “Reflections on the Question of ‘East and West’
from the Point of View of Japan,” Comparative Civilizations Review, 13/14 (Fall 1985
and Spring 1986), 219; Arata Isozaki, “Escaping the Cycle of Eternal Resources,” New
Perspectives Quarterly, 9 (Spring 1992), 18.
(15)
Richard Sission, “Culture and Democratization in India,” in Larry
Diamond, Political Culture and Democracy in Developing Countries (Boulder: Lynne
Rienner, 1993), pp. 55–61.
(16)
Graham E. Fuller, “The Appeal of Iran,” National Interest, 37 (Fall
1994), 95.
(17)
Eisuke Sakakibara, “The End of Progressivism: A Search for New
Goals,” Foreign Affairs, 74 (Sept./Oct. 1995), 8–14.
(18)
T. S. Eliot, Idea of a Christian Society (New York: Harcourt, Brace
and Company, 1940), p. 64.
(19)
Gilles Kepel, Revenge of Cod: The Resurgence of Islam, Christianity and
Judaism in the Modem World (University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University
Press, trans. Alan Braley 1994), p. 2.
(20)
George Weigel, “Religion and Peace: An Argument Complexified,”
Washington Quarterly, 14 (Spring 1991), 27.
(21)
James H. Billington, “The Case for Orthodoxy,” New Republic, 30 May
1994, p. 26; Suzanne Massie, “Back to the Future,” Boston Globe, 28 March 1993, p.
72.
(22)
Economist, 8 January 1993, p. 46; James Rupert, “Dateline Tashkent:
Post-Soviet Central Asia,” Foreign Policy, 87 (Summer 1992),
190.
(23)
Fareed Zakaria, “Culture Is Destiny: A Conversation with Lee Kuan
Yew,” Foreign Affairs, 73, (Mar./Apr. 1994), 118.
(24)
Hassan Al-Turabi, “The Islamic Awakening’s Second Wave,” New
Perspectives Quarterly, 9 (Summer 1992), 52–55; Ted G. Jelen, The Political
Mobilization of Religious Belief (New York: Praeger, 1991), pp. 5
ff.
(25)
Bernard Lewis, “Islamic Revolution,” New York Review of Books, 21
January 1988, p. 47; Kepel, Revenge of God p. 82.
(26)
Sudhir Kakar, “The Colors of Violence: Cultural Identities,
Religion, and Conflict” (Unpublished manuscript), chap. 6, “A New Hindu Identity,”
p. 11.
(27)
Suzanne Massie, “Back to the Future,” p. 72; Rupert, “Dateline
Tashkent,” p. 180.
(28)
Rosemary Radford Ruther, “A World on Fire with Faith,” New York
Times Book Review, 26 January 1992, p. 10; William H. McNeill, “Fundamentalism and
the
World of the 1990s,” in Martin E. Marty and R. Scott Appleby, eds., Fundamentalisms
and 29, New York Times, 15 January 1993, p. A9; Henry Clement Moor, Images of Development:
Egyption Engineers in Search of Industry (Cambridge: M.I.T. Press, 1980), pp. 227-228.
(29)
New York Times, 15 January 1993, p. A9; Henry Clement Moore, Images of Development:
Egyptian Engineers in Search of Industry (Cambridge: M.I.T. Press, 1980), pp. 227-228.
(30)
Henry Scott Stokes, “Korea’ s Church Militant,” New York Times
Magazine, 28 November 1972, p. 68.
(31)
Rev. Edward J. Dougherty, S. J., New York Times 4 July 1993, p. 10; Timothy Goodman,
“Latin America’s Reformation,” American Enterprise, 2 (July–August 1991), 43; New
York Times, 11 July 1993, p. 1; Time, 21 January 1991, p. 69.
(32)
Economist, 6 May 1989, p. 23; 11 November 1989, p. 41; Times (London),
12 April 1990, p. 12; Observer, 27 May 1990, p. 18.
(33)
New York Times, 16 July 1993, p. A9; Boston Globe, 15 July 1993, p.
13.
(34)
See Mark Juergensmeyer, The New Cold War? Religious Nationalism
Confronts the Secular State (Berkeley: University of California Press,
1993).
(35)
Zakaria, “Conversation with Lee Kuan Yew,” p. 118; Al-Turabi, “Islamic Awakening’s
Second Wave,” p. 53. See Terrance Carroll, “Secularization and
States of Modernity,” World Politics, 36 (April 1984). 362–382.
(36)
John L. Esposito, The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality (New York:
Oxford University Press, 1992), p. 10.
(37)
Régis Debray, “God and the Political Planet,” New Perspectives
Quarterly, 11 (Spring 1994), 15.
(38)
Esposito, Islamic Threat, p. 10; Gilles Kepel quoted in Sophie Lannes,
“La revanche de Dieu—Interview with Gilles Kepel,” Geopolitique, 33 (Spring 1991),
14; Moore, Images of Development, pp. 214–216.
(39)
Juergensmeyer, The New Cold War, p. 71; Edward A. Gargan, “Hindu Rage
Against Muslims Transforming Indian Politics,” New York Times, 17 September 1993,
p. A1; Khushwaht Singh, “India, the Hindu State,” New York Times, 3 August 1993, p.
A17.
(40)
Dore in Bull and Watson, eds., Expansion of International Society, p. 411; McNeill
in Marty and Appleby, eds., Fundamentalisms and Society, p. 569.
الفصل الخامس: الاقتصاد والديموغرافيا وحضارات التحدي
(1)
Kishore Mahbubani, “The Pacific Way,” Foreign Affairs, 74 (Jan./Feb. 1995), 100–103;
IMD Executive Opinion Survey, Economist, 6 May 1995, p. 5; World
Bank, Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 1993 (Washington: 1993)
pp. 66-67.
(2)
Tommy Koh, America’s Role in Asia: Asian Views (Asia Foundation,
Center for Asian Pacific Affairs, Report No. 13, November 1993), p.
1.
(3)
Alex Kerr, Japan Times, 6 November 1994, p.
10.
(4)
Yasheng Huang, “Why China Will Not Collapse,” Foreign Policy, 95 (Summer 1995), 57.
(5)
Cable News Network, 10 May 1994; Edward Friedman, “A Failed Chinese
Modernity,” Daedalus, 122 (Spring 1993), 5; Perry Link, “China’s ‘Core’ Problem,”
ibid., pp. 201–204.
(6)
Economist, 21 January 1995, pp. 38-39; William Theodore de Bary, “The
New Confucianism in Beijing,” American Scholar, 64 (Spring 1995), 175 ff.; Benjamin
L.
Self, “Changing Role for Confucianism in China,” Woodrow Wilson Center Report, 7
(September 1995), 4-5; New York Times, 26 August 1991; A19.
(7)
Lee Teng-hui, “Chinese Culture and Political Renewal,” Journal of
Democracy, 6 (October 1995), 6–8.
(8)
Alex Kerr, Japan Times, 6 November 1994, p. 10; Kazuhiko Ozawa, “Ambivalence in Asia,”
Japan Update, 44 (May 1995), 18-19.
(9)
For some of these problems, see Ivan P. Hall, “Japan’s Asia Card,”
National Interest, 38 (Winter 1994-95), 19 ff.
(10)
Casimir Yost, “America’s Role in Asia: One Year Later,” (Asia
Foundation, Center for Asian Pacific Affairs, Report No. 15, February 1994), p. 4;
Yoichi Funabashi, “The Asianization of Asia,” Foreign Affairs, 72 (Nov./Dec. 1993),
78; Anwar Ibrahim, International Herald Tribune, 31 January 1994, p. 6.
(11)
Kishore Mahbubani, “Asia and a United States in Decline,” Washington
Quarterly, 17 (Spring 1994), 5–23; For a counteroffensive, see Eric Jones, “Asia’s
Fate: A Response to the Singapore School,” National Interest, 35 (Spring 1994),
18–28.
(12)
Mahathir bin Mohamad, Mare jirenma (The Malay Dilemma) (Tokyo: Imura
Bunka Jigyo, trans. Takata Masayoshi, 1983), p. 267, quoted in Ogura Kazuo, “A Call
for a New Concept of Asia,” Japan Echo, 20 (Autumn 1993), 40.
(13)
Li Xiangiu, “A Post-Cold War Alternative from East Asia,” Straits Times, 10 February
1992, p. 24
(14)
Yotaro Kobayashi, “Re-Asianize Japan,” New Perspective Quarterly, 9
(Winter 1992), 20; Funabashi, “The Asianization of Asia,” pp. 75 ff; George Yong-Soon
Yee, “New East Asia in a Multicultural World,” International Herald Tribune, 15 July
1992, p. 8.
(15)
Yoichi Funabashi, “Globalize Asia,”
New Perspectives Quarterly, 9 (Winter 1992), 23-24; Kishore
M. Mahbubani, “The West and the Rest,” National
Interest, 28 (Summer 1992), 7; Hazuo, “New Concept of Asia,” p. 41.
(16)
Economist, 9 March 1996, p. 33.
(17)
Bandar bin Sultan, New York Times, 10 July 1994, p.
20.
(18)
John L. Esposito, The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality (New York:
Oxford University Press, 1992), p. 12; Ali E. Hillal Dessouki, “The Islamic
Resurgence,” in Ali E. Hillal Dessouki, ed., Islamic Resurgence in the Arab World
(New York: Praeger, 1982), pp. 9–13.
(19)
Thomas Case, quoted in Michael Walzer, The Revolution of the Saints:
A Study in the Origins of Radical Politics (Cambridge: Harvard University Press,
1965), pp. 10-11; Hassan Al-Turabi, “The Islamic Awakening’s Second Wave,” New
Perspectives Quarterly, 9 (Summer 1992), 52. The single most useful volume for
understanding the character, appeal, limitations, and historical role of the late-twentieth-century
Islamic fundamentalism may well be Walzer’s study of sixteenth-and seventeenth-century
English Calvinist Puritanism.
(20)
Donald K. Emerson, “Islam and Regime in Indonesia: Who’s Coopting
Whom?” (unpublished paper, 1989), p. 16; M. Nasir Tamara, Indonesia in the Wake of
Islam, 1965–1985 (Kuala Lumpur: Institute of Strategic and International Studies
Malaysia, 1986), p. 28; Economist, 14 December 1985, pp. 35-36; Henry Tanner, “Islam
Challenges Secular Society,” International Herald Tribune, 27 June 1987, pp. 7-8;
Sabri
Sayari, “Politicization of Islamic Re-traditionalism: Some Preliminary Notes,” in
Metin Heper and Raphael Israeli, eds., Islam and Politics in the Modern Middle East
(London: Croom Helm, 1984), p. 125; New York Times, 26 March 1989, p. 14; 2 March
1995,
p. A8. See, for example, reports on these countries in New York Times, 17 November
1985, p. 2E; 15 November 1987, p. 13; 6 March 1991, p. A11; 20 October 1990, p. 4;
26
December 1992, p. 1; 8 March 1994, p. A15; and Economist, 15 June 1985, pp. 36-37
and 18
September 1992, pp. 23–25.
(21)
New York Times, 4 October 1993, p. A8; 29 November 1994, p. A4; 3
February 1994, p. 1; 26 December 1992, p. 5; Erika G. Alin, “Dynamics of the
Palestinian Uprising: An Assessment of Causes, Character, and Consequences,”
Comparative Politics, 26 (July 1994), 494; New York Times, 8 March 1994, p. A15; James
Peacock, “The Impact of Islam,” Wilson Quarterly, 5 (Spring 1981), 142; Tamara,
Indonesia in the Wake of Islam, p. 22.
(22)
Olivier Roy, The Failure of Political Islam (London: Tauris, 1994),
p. 49 ff; New York Times: 19 January 1992, p. E3; Washington Post, 21 November 1990,
p. A1. See Gilles Keppel, The Revenge of God: The Resurgence of Islam, Christianity,
and Judaism in the Modern World (University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University
Press, 1994), p. 32; Farida Faouzia Charifi, “When Galileo Meets Allah,” New
Perspectives Quarterly, 11 (Spring 1994), 30; Esposito, Islamic Threat, p.
10.
(23)
Mahnaz Ispahani, “Varieties of Muslim Experience,” Wilson Quarterly,
13 (Autumn 1989), 72.
(24)
Saad Eddin Ibrahim, “Appeal of Islamic Fundamentalism,” (Paper
presented to the Conference on Islam and Politics in the Contemporary Muslim World,
Harvard University, 15-16 October 1985), pp. 9-10, and “Islamic Militancy as a Social
Movement: The Case of Two Groups in Egypt,” in Dessouki, ed., Islamic Resurgence,
pp.
128–131.
(25)
Washington Post, 26 October 1980, p. 23; Peacock, “Impact of Islam,”
p. 140; IIkay Sunar and Binnaz Topark, “Islam in Politics: The Case of Turkey,”
Government and Opposition, 18 (Autumn 1983), 436; Richard W. Bulliet, “The Israeli-PLO
Accord: The Future of the Islamic Movement,” Foreign Affairs, 72 (Nov/Dec. 1993),
42.
(26)
Ernest Gellner, “Up from Imperialism,” New Republic, 22 May 1989, p.
15; John Murray Brown, “Tansu Ciller and the Questions of Turkish Identity,” World
Policy Journal, 11 (Fall 1994), 58; Roy, Failure of Political Islam, p.
53.
(27)
Fouad Ajami, “The Impossible Life of Muslim Liberalism,” New Repulbic,
2 June 1986, p. 27.
(28)
Clement Moore Henry, “The Mediterranean Debt Crescent,” (Unpublished manuscript),
p. 346; Mark N. Katz, “Emerging Patterns in the International Relations of Central
Asia,” Central Asian Monitor, (No. 2, 1994), 27; Mehrdad Haghayeghi, “Islamic Revival
in the Central Asian Republics,” Central Asian Survey, 13 (No. 2,
1994), 255.
(29)
New York Times, 10 April 1989, p. A3; 22 December 1992, p. 5;
Economist, 10 October 1992, p. 41.
(30)
Economist, 20 July 1991, p. 35; 21 December 1991–3 January 1992, p. 40; Mahfulzul
Hoque Choudhury, “Nationalism, Religion and Politics in Bangladesh,” in
Rafiuddin Ahmed, ed., Bangladesh: Society, Religion and Politics (Chittagong: South
Asia Studies Group, 1985), p. 68; New York Times, 30 November 1994, p. A14; Wall Street
Journal, 1 March 1995, pp. 1. A6.
(31)
Donald L. Horowitz, “The Qur’an and the Common Law: Islamic Law
Reform and the Theory of Legal Change,” American Journal of Comparative Law, 42 (Spring
and Summer, 1994), 234 ff.
(32)
Dessouki, “Islamic Resurgence,” p. 23.
(33)
Daniel Pipes, In the Path of God: Islam and Political Power (New
York: Basic Books, 1983), pp. 282-283, 290–292; John Barrett Kelly, Arabia, the Gulf
and the West (New York: Basic Books, 1980), pp. 261, 423, as quoted in Pipes, Path
of
God, p. 291.
(34)
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The
1992 Revision (New York: United Nations, 1993), table A18; World Bank, World
Development Report 1995 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995), table 25; Jean
Bourgeois-Pichat, “Le Nombre des Hommes: Etat et Prospective,” in Albert Jacquard,
ed., Les Scientifiques Parlent (Paris: Hachette, 1987), pp. 154,
156.
(35)
Jack A. Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991), passim, but esp.
24–39.
(36)
Herbert Moeller, “Youth as a Force in the Modern World,” Comparative
Studies in Society and History, 10 (April 1968), 237–260; Lewis S. Feuer, “Generations
and the Theory of Revolution,” Survey, 18 (Summer 1972), pp.
161–188.
(37)
Peter W. Wilson abd Douglas F. Graham, Saudi Arabia: The Coming Storm (Armonk, NY:
M. E. Sharpe, 1994), 28-29
(38)
Philippe Fargues, “Demographic Explosion or Social Upheaval,” in
Ghassen Salame, ed., Democracy Without Democrats? The Renewal of Politics in the
Muslim World (London: I.B. Tauris, 1994), pp. 158–162, 175–177.
(39)
Economist, 29 August 1981, p. 40; Denis Dragounski, “Threshold of
Violence,” Freedom Review, 26 (March/April 1995), 11.
(ﺟ) نظام الحضارات الناشئ
الفصل السادس: إعادة التشكيل الثقافي للسياسة الكونية
(1)
Andreas Papandreou, “Europe Turns Left,” New Perspectives Quarterly,
11 (Winter 1994), 53; Vuk Draskovic, quoted in Janice A. Broun, “Islam in the
Balkans,” Freedom Review, 22 (Nov./Dec. 1991), 31; F. Stephen Larrabee, “Instability
and Change in the Balkans,” Survival, 34 (Summer 1992), 43; Misha Glenny, “Heading
Off War in the Southern Balkans,” Foreign Affairs, 74 (May/June 1995),
102-103.
(2)
Association of South East Asian Nations.
(3)
Caribean Community.
(4)
See e.g., Economist, 16 November 1991, p. 45, 6 May 1995, p.
36.
(5)
Post Ministerial Conference.
(6)
Barry Buzan and Gerald Segal, “Rethinking East Asian Security,”
Survival, 36 (Summer 1994), 16.
(7)
Fast Eastern Economic Review, 11 August 1994, p.
34.
(8)
An interview between Datsuk Seri Mahathir bin Mohamad of Malaysia and
Kenichi Ohmae, pp. 3, 7; Rafidah Azia, New York Times, 12 February 1991, p.
D6.
(9)
Murray Weidenbaum, “Greater China: A New Economic Colossus?”
Washington Quarterly, 16 (Autumn 1993), 78–80.
(10)
Wall Street Journal, 30 September 1994, p. A8; New York Times, 17
February 1995, p. A6.
(11)
Economist, 8 October 1994, p. 44; Andres Serbin, “Towards an
Association of Caribbean States: Raising Some Awkward Questions,” Journal of
Interamerican Studies, 36 (Winter 1994), 61–90.
(12)
Central European Free Trade Area.
(13)
Far Eastern Economic Review, 5 July 1990, pp. 24-25, 5 September 1991,
pp. 26-27; New York Times, 16 February 1992, p. 16; Economist, 15 January 1994, p.
38;
Robert D. Hormats, “Making Regionalism Safe,” Foreign Affairs, 73 (March/April
1994), 102-103; Economist, 10 June 1994, pp. 47-48; Boston Globe, 5 February 1994,
p. 7.
On Mercosur, see Luigi Manzetti, “The Political Economy of MERCOSUR,” Journal of
Interamerican Studies, 35 (Winter 1993/94), 101–141, and Felix Pena, “New Approaches
to Economic Integration in the Southern Cone,” Washington Quarterly, 18 (Summer
1995), 113–122.
(14)
New York Times, 8 April 1994, p. A3, 13 June 1994, pp. D1, D5, 4
January 1995, p. A8; Mahathir Interview with Ohmae, pp. 2, 5; “Asian Trade New
Directions,” AMEX Bank Review, 20 (22 March 1993), 1–7.
(15)
See Brian Pollins, “Does Trade Still Follow the Flag?” American
Political Science Review, 83 (June 1989), 465–480; Joanne Gowa and Edward D.
Mansfield, “Power Politics and International,” American Political Science Review,
87
(June 1993), 408–421; and David M. Rowe, “Trade and Security in International
Relations,” (unpublished paper, Ohio State University, 15 September 1994),
passim.
(16)
Sidney W. Mintz, “Can Haiti Change?” Foreign Affairs, 75 (Jan./Feb.
1995), 73; Ernesto Perez Balladares and Joycelyn McCalla quoted in “Haiti’s
Traditions of Isolation Makes U.S. Task Harder,” Washington Post, 25 July 1995, p.
A1.
(17)
Economist, 23 October 1993, p. 53.
(18)
Boston Globe, 21 March 1993, pp. 1, 16, 17; Economist, 19 November
1994, p. 23, 11 June 1994, p. 90. The similarity between Turkey and Mexico in this
respect has been pointed out by Barry Buzan, “New Patterns of Global Security in the
Twenty-first Century,” International Affairs, 67 (July 1991), 449, and Jagdish
Bhagwati, The World Trading System at Risk (Princeton: Princeton University Press,
1991), p. 72.
(19)
See Marquis de Custine, Empire of the Czar: A Journey Through Eternal
Russia (New York: Doubleday, 1989; originally published in Paris in 1844),
passim.
(20)
P. Ya. Chaadayev, Articles and Letters [Statyi i pisma] (Moscow:
1989), p. 178 and N. Ya. Danilevskiy, Russia and Europe [Rossiya i Yevropa] (Moscow:
1991), pp. 267-268, quoted in Sergei Vladislavovich Chugrov, “Russia Between East
and
West,” in Steve Hirsch, ed., MEMO 3: In Search of Answers in the Post-Soviet Era (Washington,
D.C.: Bureau of National Affairs, 1992), p. 138.
(21)
See Leon Aron, “The Battle for the Soul of Russian Foreign Policy,”
The American Enterprise, 3 (Nov./Dec. 1992), 10 ff; Alexei G. Arbatov, “Russia’s
Foreign Policy Alternatives,” International Security, 18 (Fall 1993), 5
ff.
(22)
Sergei Stankevich, “Russia in Search of Itself,” National Interest,
28 (Summer 1992), 48-49.
(23)
Albert Motivans, “‘Openness to the West’ in European Russia,” RFE/RL Research Report,
1 (27 November 1992), 60–62. Scholars have calculated the
allocation of votes in different ways with the minor differences in results. I have
relied on the analysis by Sergei Chugrov, “Political Tendencies in Russia’s Regions:
Evidence from the 1993 Parliamentary Elections” (Unpublished paper, Harvard
University, 1994).
(24)
Chugrov, “Russia Between,” p. 140.
(25)
Samuel P. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New
Haven: Yale University Press, 1968), pp. 350-351.
(26)
Duygo Bazoglu Sezer, “Turkey’s Grand Strategy Facing a Dilemma,”
International Spectator, 27 (Jan./Mar. 1992), 24.
(27)
Clyde Haberman, “On Iraq’s Other Front,” New York Times Magazine,
18 November 1990, p. 42; Bruce R. Kuniholm, “Turkey and the West,” Foreign Affairs,
70
(Spring 1991), 35-36.
(28)
Ian Lesser, “Turkey and the West after the Gulf War,” International
Spectator, 27 (Jan./Mar. 1992), 33.
(29)
Financial Times, 9 March 1992, p. 2; New York Times, 5 April 1992, p.
E3; Tansu Ciller, “The Role of Turkey in the New World,” Strategic Review, 22 (Winter
1994), p. 9; Haberman, “Iraq’s Other Front,” p. 44; John Murray Brown, “Tansu
Ciller and the Question of Turkish Identity,” World Policy Journal, 11 (Fall 1994),
58.
(30)
Sezer, “Turkey’s Grand Strategy,” p. 27; Washington Post, 22 March
1992; New York Times, 19 June 1994, p. 4.
(31)
New York Times, 4 August 1993, p. A3; 19 June 1994, p. 4; Philip
Robins, “Between Sentiment and Self-Interest: Turkey’s Policy toward Azerbaijan and
the Central Asian States,” Middle East Journal, 47 (Autumn 1993), 593–610; Economist,
17 June
1995, pp. 38-39.
(32)
Bahri Yilmaz, “Turkey’s new Role in International Politics,”
Aussenpolitik, 45 (January 1994), 94.
(33)
Eric Rouleau, “The Challenges to Turkey,” Foreign Affairs, 72 (Nov./Dec. 1993), 119.
(34)
Rouleau, “Challenges,” pp. 120-121; New York Times, 26 March 1989,
p. 14.
(35)
Ibid.
(36)
Brown, “Question of Turish Identity,” p.
58.
(37)
Sezer, “Turkey’s Grand Strategy,” pp. 29-30.
(38)
Ciller, “Turkey in ‘the New World,’” p. 9; Brown, “Question of
Turkish Identity,” p. 56; Tansu Ciller, “Turkey and NATO: Stability in the Vortex
of
Change,” NATO Review, 42 (April 1994), 6; Suleyman Demirel, BBC Summary of World
Broadcasts, 2 February 1994. For other uses of the bridge metaphor, see Bruce R.
Kuniholm, “Turkey and the West,” Foreign Affairs, 70 (Spring 1991), 39; Lesser, “Turkey
and the West,” p. 33.
(39)
Octavio Paz, “The Border of Time,” interview with Nathan Gardels,
New Perspectives Quarterly, 8 (Winter 1991), 36.
(40)
For an expression of this last concern, see Daniel Patrick Moynihan,
“Free Trade with an Unfree Society: A Commitment and its Consequences,” National
Interest, (Summer 1995), 28–33.
(41)
Financial Times, 11-12 September 1993, p. 4; New York Times, 16 August
1992, p. 3.
(42)
Economist, 23 July 1994, p. 35; Irene Moss, Human Rights Commissioner
(Australia), New York Times, 16 August 1992, p. 3; Economist, 23 July 1994, p. 35;
Boston Globe, 7 July 1993, p. 2; Cable News Network, News Report, 16 December 1993;
Richard Higgott, “Closing a Branch Office of Empire: Australian Foreign Policy and
the UK at Century’s End,” International Affairs, 70 (January 1994),
58.
(43)
Jat Sujamiko, The Australian, 5 May 1993, p. 18 quoted in Higgott, “Closing a Branch,”
p. 62; Higgott, “Closing a Branch,” p. 63; Economist, 12 December
1993, p. 34.
(44)
Transcript, Interview with Keniche Ohmae, 24 October 1994, pp. 5-6.
See also Japan Times, 7 November 1994, p. 19.
(45)
Former Ambassador Richard Woolcott (Australia), New York Times, 16
August 1992, p. 3.
(46)
Paul Kelly, “Reinventing Australia,” National Interest, 30 (Winter
1992), 66; Economist, 11 December 1993, p. 34; Higgott, “Closing a Branch,” p.
58.
(47)
“Lee Kuan Yew quoted in Higgott”.
الفصل السابع: دول المركز والدوائر المتحدة المركز والنظام الحضاري
(1)
Economist, 14 January 1995, p. 45; 26 November 1994, p. 56, summarizing
Juppé article in Le Monde, 18 November 1994; New York Times, 4 September 1994,
p. 11.
(2)
Michael Howard, “Lessons of the Cold War,” Survival, 36 (Winter
1994), 102-103; Pierre Behar, “Central Europe: The New Lines of Fracture,”
Geopolitique, 39 (English ed., August 1992), 42; Max Jakobson, “Collective Security
in Europe Today,” Washington Quarterly, 18 Spring (Spring 1995), 69; Max Beloff, “Fault
Lines and Steeples: The Divided Loyalties of Europe,” National Interest, 23 (Spring
1991), 78.
(3)
Andreas Oplatka, “Vienna and the Mirror of History,” Geopolitique,
35 (English ed., Autumn 1991), 25; Vytautas Landsbergis, “The Choice,” Geopolitique,
35 (English ed., Autumn 1991), 3; New York Times, 23 April 1995, p. 5E.
(4)
Carl Bildt, “The Baltic Litmus Test,” Foreign Affairs, 73 (Sept./Oct. 1994), 84.
(5)
New York Times, 15 June 1995, p. A10.
(6)
RFE/RL Research Bulletin, 10 (16 March 1993), 1,
6.
(7)
William D. Jackson, “Imperial Temptations: Ethnics Abroad,” Orbis,
38 (Winter 1994), 5.
(8)
Ian Brzezinski, New York Times, 13 July 1994, p.
A8.
(9)
John F. Mearsheimer, “The Case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent:
Debate,” Foreign Affairs, 72 (Summer 1993), 50–66.
(10)
New York Times, 31 January 1994, p. A8.
(11)
Quoted in Ola Tunander, “New European Dividing Lines?” in Valter
Angell, ed., Norway Facing a Changing Europe: Perspectives and Options (Oslo:
Norwegian Foreign Policy Studies No. 79, Fridtjof Nansen Institute et al., 1992),
p.
55.
(12)
John Morrison, “Pereyaslav and After: The Russian-Ukrainian
Relationship,” International Affairs, 69 (October 1993), 677.
(13)
John King Fairbank, ed., The Chinese World Order: Traditional China’s Foreign Relations
(Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1968), pp.
2-3.
(14)
Perry Link, “The Old Man’s New China,” New York Review of Books, 9
June 1994, p. 32.
(15)
Perry Link, “Chinas ‘Core’ Problem,” Daedalus, 122 (Spring 1993), 205; Weiming Tu,
“Cultural China: The Periphery as the Center,” Daedalus, 120 (Spring 1991), 22; Economist,
8 July 1995, pp. 31-32.
(16)
Economist, 27 November 1993, p. 33; 17 July 1993, p.
61.
(17)
Economist, 27 November 1993, p. 33; Yoichi Funabashi, “The
Asianization of Asia,” Foreign Affairs, 72 (Nov./Dec. 1993), 80. See in general
Murray Weidenbaum and Samuel Hughes, The Bamboo Network (New York: Free Press,
1996).
(18)
Christopher Gray, quoted in Washington Post, 1 December 1992, p. A30;
Lee Kuan Yew, quoted in Maggie Farley, “The Bamboo Network,” Boston Globe Magazine,
17 April 1994, p. 38; International Herald Tribune, 23 November
1993.
(19)
International Herald Tribune, 23 November 1993; George Hicks and J.
A. C. Mackie, “A Question of Identity: Despite Media Hype, They Are Family Settled
in
Southeast Asia,” Far Eastern Economic Review, 14 July 1994, p.
47.
(20)
Economist, 16 April 1994, p. 71; Nicholas D. Kristof, “The Rise of
China,” Foreign Affairs, 72 (Nov./Dec. 1993), 48; Gerrit W. Gong, “China’s Fourth
Revolution,” Washington Quarterly, 17 (Winter 1994), 37; Wall Street Journal, 17 May
1993, p. A7A; Murray L. Weidenbaum, Greater China: The Next Economic Superpower? (St.
Louis: Washington University Center for the Study of American Business, Contemporary
Issues Series 57, February 1993), pp. 2-3
(21)
Steven Mufson, Washington Post, 14 August 1994, p. A30; Newsweek, 19
July 1993, p. 24; Economist, 7 May 1993, p. 35.
(22)
See Walter C. Clemens, Jr. and Jun Zhan, “Chiang Ching-Kuo’s Role in the ROC-PRC Reconciliation,”
American Asian Review, 12 (Spring 1994), 151-154.
(23)
Koo Chen Foo, quoted in Economist, 1 May 1993, p. 31; Link, “Old Man’s New China,”
p. 32. See “Cross-Strait Relations: Historical Lessons,” Free China
Review, 44 (October 1994), 42–52. Gong, “China’s Fourth Revolution,” p. 39;
Economist, 2 July 1994, p. 18; Gerald Segal, “China’s Changing Shape: The Muddle
Kingdom?” Foreign Affairs, 73 (May/June 1994), 49; Ross H. Munro, “Giving Taipei a
Place at the Table,” Foreign Affairs, 73 (Nov./Dec. 1994), 115; Wall Street Journal,
17 May 1993, p. A7 A; Free China Journal, 29 July 1994, p. 1.
(24)
Economist, 10 July 1993, pp. 28-29; 2 April 1994, pp. 34-35;
International Herald Tribune, 23 November 1993; Wall Street Journal, 17 May 1993,
p.
A7A.
(25)
Ira M. Lapidus, History of Islamic Societies (Cambridge, UK:
Cambridge University Press, 1988), p. 3.
(26)
Mohamed Zahi Mogherbi, “Tribalism, Religion and the Challenge of
Political Participation: The Case of Libya,” Paper presented to Conference on
Democratic Challenges in the Arab World, Center for Political and International
Development Studies, Cairo, 22–27 September 1992, pp. 1, 9; Economist, (Survey of
the
Arab East), 6 February 1988, p. 7; Adlan A. El-Hardallo, “Sufism and Tribalism: The
Case of Sudan,” (Paper prepared for Conference on Democratic Challenges in the Arab
World, Center for Political and International Development Studies, Cairo, 22–27
September 1992), p. 2; Economist, 30 October 1987, p. 45; John Duke Anthony, “Saudi
Arabia: From Tribal Society to Nation-State,” in Ragaei El Mellakh and Dorothea H.
El
Mellakh, eds., Saudi Arabia, Energy, Development Planning, and Industrialization (Lexington,
MA: Lexington, 1982), pp. 93-94.
(27)
Yalman Onaran, “Economics and Nationalism: The Case of Muslim
Central Asia,” Central Asian Survey, 13 (No. 4, 1994), 493; Denis Dragounski, “Threshold
of Violence,” Freedom Review, 26 (Mar./April 1995),
12.
(28)
Barbara Daly Metcalf, “The Comparative Study of Muslim Societies,”
Items, 40 (March 1986), 3.
(29)
Metcalf, “Muslim Societies,” p. 3.
(30)
Boston Globe, 2 April 1995, p. 2. On PAIC generally, see “The Popular
Arab and Islamic Conference (PAIC): A New ‘Islamist International’?” TransState
Islam, 1 (Spring 1995), 12–16.
(31)
Bernard Schechterman and Bradford R. McGuinn, “Linkages between Sunni and Shi’i Radical
Fundamentalist Organizations: A New Variable in Middle Eastern Politics?” The Political
Chronicle, 1 (February 1989), 22-34; New York Times, 6 December 1994, p. 5.
(د) صدامات الحضارات
الفصل الثامن: الغرب والباقي: قضايا تداخل حضاري
(1)
Georgi Arbatov, “Neo-Bolsheviks of the I.M.F,” New York Times, 7
May 1992, p. A27.
(2)
North Korean views summed up by a senior U.S. analyst, Washington
Post, 12 June 1994, p. C1; Indian general quoted in Les Aspin, “From Deterrence to
Denuking: Dealing with Proliferation in the 1990’s,” Memorandum, 18 February 1992,
p. 6.
(3)
Lawrence Freedman, “Great Powers, Vital Interests and Nuclear
Weapons,” Survival, 36 (Winter 1994), 37; Les Aspin, Remarks, National Academy of
Sciences, Committee on International Security and Arms Control, 7 December 1993, p.
3.
(4)
Stanley Norris quoted, Boston Globe, 25 November 1995, pp. 1, 7; Alastair Iain Johnston,
“China’s New ‘Old Thinking’: The Concept of Limited Deterrence,” International Security,
20 (Winter 1995-96), 21–23.
(5)
Philip L. Ritcheson, “Iranian Military Resurgence: Scope,
Motivations, and Implications for Regional Security,” Armed Forces and Society, 21
(Summer 1995), 575-576. Warren Christopher Address, Kennedy School of Government,
20
January 1995; Time, 16 December 1991, p. 47; Ali Al-Amin Mazrui, Cultural Forces in
World Politics (London: J. Currey, 1990), pp. 220,224.
(6)
New York Times, 15 November 1991, p. A1; New York Times, 21 February
1992; p. A9; 12 December 1993, p. 1; Jane Teufel Dreyer, “U.S./China Military
Relations: Sanctions or Rapprochement?” In Depth, 1 (Spring 1991), 17-18; Time, 16
December 1991, p. 48; Boston Globe, 5 February 1994, p. 2; Monte R. Bullard, “U.S.-China
Relations: The Strategic Calculus,” Parameters, 23 (Summer 1993),
88.
(7)
Quoted in Karl W. Eikenberry, Explaining and Influencing Chines Arms
Trasnfers (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University, Institute for National
Strategic Studies, McNair Paper No. 36, February 1995), p. 37; Pakistani government
statement, Boston Globe, 5 December 1993, p. 19; R. Bates Gill, “Curbing Beijing’s
Arms Sales,” Orbis, 36 (Summer 1992), p. 386; Chong-pin Lin, “Red Army,” New
Republic, 20 November 1995, p. 28; New York Times, 8 May 1992, p. 31.
(8)
Richard A. Bitzinger, “Arms to Go: Chinese Arms Sales to the Third
World,” International Security, (Fall 1992), p. 87; Philip Ritcheson, “Iranian
Military Resurgence,” pp. 576, 578; Washington Post, 31 October 1993, pp. A1, A24;
Time,
16 December 1991, p. 47; New York Times, 18 April 1995, p. A8; 28 September 1995,
p. 1;
30 September 1995, p. 1; Gill, “Curbing Beijing’s Arms,” p. 388; New York Times, 8
April 1993, p. A9; 20 June 1993, p. 6.
(9)
John E. Reilly, “The Public Mood at Mid-Decade,” Foreign Policy, 98
(Spring 1995), p. 83; Executive Order 12930, 29 September 1994; Executive Order 12938,
14 November 1994. These expanded on Executive Order 12735, 16 November 1990, issued
by
President Bush declaring a national emergency with respect to chemical and biological
weapons.
(10)
James Fallows, “The Panic Gap: Reactions to North Korea’s Bomb,”
National Interest, 38 (Winter 1994), 40–45; David Sanger, New York Times, 12 June
1994, pp. 1, 16.
(11)
New York Times, 26 December 1993, p. 1.
(12)
Washington Post, 12 May 1995, p. 1.
(13)
Bilahari Kausikan, “Asia’s Different Standard,” Foreign Policy, 92
(Fall 1993), 28-29.
(14)
Economist, 30 July 1994, p. 31; 5 March 1994, p. 35; 27 August 1994,
p. 51; Yash Ghai, “Human Rights and Governance: The Asian Debate,” (Asia Foundation
Center for Asian Pacific Affairs, Occasional Paper No. 4, November 1994), p. 14.
(15)
Richard M. Nixon, Beyond Peace (New York: Random House, 1994), pp. 127-128.
(16)
Economist, 4 February 1995, p. 30.
(17)
Charles J, Brown, “In the Trenches: The Battle Over Rights,” Freedom
Review, 24 (Sept./Oct. 1993), 9; Douglas W. Payne, “Showdown in Vienna,” ibid., pp.
6-7.
(18)
Charles Norchi, “The Ayatollah and the Author: Rethinking Human
Rights,” Yale Journal of World Affairs, 1 (Summer 1989), 16; Kausikan, “Asia’s
Different Standard,” p. 32.
(19)
Richard Cohen, The Earth Times, 2 August 1993, p. 14.
(20)
New York Times, 19 September 1993, p. 4 E; 24 September 1993, pp. 1,
B9, B16; 9 September 1994, p. A26; Economist, 21 September 1993, p. 75; 18 September
1993, pp. 37-38; Financial Times, 25-26 September 1993, p. 11; Straits Times, 14 October
1993, p. 1.
(21)
Figures and quote are from Myron Weiner, Global Migration Crisis (New York: HarperCollins,
1995), pp. 21–28.
(22)
Weiner, Global Migration Crisis, p. 2.
(23)
Stanley Hoffmann, “The Case for Leadership,” Foreign Policy, 81 (Winter 1990-91),
30.
(24)
See B. A. Roberson, “Islam and Europe: An Enigma or a Myth?" Middle East Journal,
48 (Spring 1994), p. 302; New York Times, 5 December 1993, p. 1; 5 May 1995, p. 1;
Joel Klotkin and Andries van Agt, “Bedouins: Tribes that Have Made it,” New Perspectives
Quarterly, 8 (Fall 1991), p. 51; Judith Miller, “Strangers at the Gate,” New York
Times Magazine, 15 September 1991, p. 49.
(25)
International Herald Tribune, 29 May 1990, p. 5; New York Times, 15
September 1994, p. A21. The French poll was sponsored by the French government, the
German poll by the American Jewish Committee.
(26)
See Hans-George Betz, “The New Politics of Resentment: Radical
Right-Wing Populist Parties in Western Europe,” Comparative Politics, 25 (July 1993),
413–427.
(27)
International Herald Tribune, 28 June 1993, p. 3; Wall Street Journal,
23 May 1994; p. B1; Lawrence H. Fuchs, “The Immigration Debate: Little Room for Big
Reforms,” American Experiment, 2 (Winter 1994), 6.
(28)
James C. Clad, “Slowing the Wave,” Foreign Policy, 95 (Summer 1994), 143; Rita J.
Simon and Susan H. Alexander, The Ambivalent Welcome: Print Media, Public Opinion
and Immigration (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1993), p. 46.
(29)
New York Times, 11 June 1995, p. E14.
(30)
Jean Raspail, The Camp of the Saints (New York: Scribner, 1975) and
Jean-Claude Chesnais, Le Crepuscule de l’Occident: Demographie et Politique (Paris:
Robert Laffont, 1995); Pierre Lellouche, quoted in Miller, “Strangers at the Gate,”
p. 80.
(31)
Philippe Fargues, “Demographic Explosion or Social Upheaval?” in
Ghassan Salame, ed., Democracy Without Democrats? The Renewal of Politics in the
Muslim World (London: I.B. Taurus, 1994), pp. 157 ff.
الفصل التاسع: السياسة الكونية للحضارات
(1)
Adda B. Bozeman, Strategic Intelligence and Statecraft. Selected
Essays (Washington: Brassey’s (US), 1992), p. 50; Barry Buzan, “New Patterns of
Global Security in the Twenty-first Century,” International Affairs, 67 (July 1991),
448-449.
(2)
John L. Esposito, The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality (New York:
Oxford University Press, 1992), p. 46.
(3)
Bernard Lewis, Islam and the West (New York: Oxford University Press,
1993), p. 13.
(4)
Esposito, The Islamic Threat, p. 44.
(5)
Daniel Pipes, In the Path of God: Islam and Political Power (New
York: Basic Books, 1983), 102-103, 169–173; Lewis F. Richardson, Statistics of Deadly
Quarrels (Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press, 1960), pp. 235–237.
(6)
Ira M. Lapidus, A History of Islamic Societies (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 1988), pp. 41-42; Princess Anna Comnena, quoted in Karen Armstrong,
Holy War: The Crusades and Their Impact on Today’s World (New York: Doubleday-Anchor,
1991), pp. 3-4 and in Arnold J. Toynbee, Study of History (London: Oxford
University Press, 1954), VIII, p. 390.
(7)
Barry Buzan, “New Patterns,” pp. 448-449; Bernard Lewis, “The Roots
of Muslim Rage: Why So Many Muslims Deeply Resent the West and Why Their Bitterness
Will Not Be Easily Mollified,” Atlantic Monthly, 266 (September 1990),
60.
(8)
Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, “Cybernetic Colonialism and the Moral Search,”
New Perspectives Quarterly, 11 (Spring 1994), 19; M. J. Akbar, quoted Time, 15 June
1992, p. 24; Abdelwahab Belwahl, quoted ibid., p. 26.
(9)
William H. McNeill, “Epilogue: Fundamentalism and the World of the
1990’s,” in Martin E. Marty and R. Scott Appleby, eds., Fundamentalisms and Society:
Reclaiming the Sciences, the Family, and Education (Chicago: University of Chicago
Press), p. 569.
(10)
Fatima Mernissi, Islam and Democracy:
Fear of the Modern World (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1992).
(11)
For a selection of such reports, see Economist, 1 August 1992, pp.
34-35.
(12)
John E, Reilly, ed., American Public Opinion and U.S. Foreign Policy
1995 (Chicago: Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, 1995), p. 21; Le Monde, 20
September 1991, p. 12, cited in Margaret Blunden, “Insecurity on Europe’s Southern
Flank,” Survival, 36 (Summer 1994), 138; Richard Morin, Washington Post (National
Weekly Ed.) 8–14 November 1993, p. 37; Foreign Policy Association, National Opinion
Ballot Report, November 1994, p. 5.
(13)
Boston Globe, 3 June 1994, p. 18; John L. Esposito, “Symposium:
Resurgent Islam in the Middle East,” Middle East Policy 3 (No. 2, 1994), 9;
International Herald Tribune, 10 May 1994, pp. 1, 4; Christian Science Monitor, 24
February 1995, p. 1.
(14)
Robert Ellsworth, Wall Street Journal, 1 March 1995, p. 15; William T.
Johnsen, NATO’s New Front Line: The Growing Importance of the Southern Tier (Carlisle
Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1992), p. vii; Robbin
Laird, French Security Policy in Transition: Dynamics of Continuity and
Change (Washington, D.C.: Institute for National Strategic Studies, McNair paper 38,
March 1995), pp. 50–52.
(15)
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Islam and Revolution (Berkeley, CA:
Mizan Press, 1981), p. 305.
(16)
Economist, 23 November 1991, p. 15.
(17)
Barry Buzan and Gerald Segal, “Rethinking East Asian Security,”
Survival, 36 (Summer 1994), 15.
(18)
Can China’s Armed Forces Win the Next War?, excerpts translated and
published in Ross H. Munro, “Eavesdropping on the Chinese Military: Where It Expects
War—Where It Doesn’t,” Orbis, 38 (Summer 1994), 365. The authors of this document
went on to say that the use of military force against Taiwan “would be a really
unwise decision.”
(19)
Buzan and Segal, “Rethinking East Asian Security,” p. 7; Richard K.
Betts, “Wealth, Power and Instability: East Asia and the United States After the Cold
War,” International Security, 18 (Winter 1993/94), 34–77; Aaron L. Friedberg, “Ripe
for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in Multipolar Asia,” International Security, 18 (Winter
1993/94), 5–33.
(20)
Can China’s Armed Forces Win the Next War? excerpts translated in
Munro, “Eavesdropping on the Chinese,” pp. 355 ff.; New York Times, 16 November 1993,
p. A6; Friedberg, “Ripe for Rivalry,” p. 7.
(21)
Desmond Ball, “Arms and Affluence: Military Acquisitions in the
Asia-Pacific Region,” International Security, 18 (Winter 1993/94), 95–111; Michael
T.
Klare, “The Next Great Arms Race,” Foreign Affairs, 72 (Summer 1993), 137 ff.; Buzan
and Segal, “Rethinking East Asian Security,” pp. 8–11; Gerald Segal, “Managing New
Arms Races in the Asia/Pacific,” Washington Quarterly, 15 (Summer 1992), 83–102;
Economist, 20 February 1993, pp. 19–22.
(22)
See, e.g., Economist, 26 June 1993, p. 75; 24 July 1995, p. 25; Time,
3 July 1995, pp. 30-31; and on China, Jacob Heilbrunn, “The Next Cold War,” New
Republic, 20 November 1995, pp. 27 ff.
(23)
For discussion of the varieties of trade wars and when they may lead
to military wars, see David Rowe, Trade Wars and International Security: The Political
Economy of International Economic Conflict (Working paper no. 6, Project on the
Changing Security Environment and American National Interests, John M. Olin Institute
for Strategic Studies, Harvard University, July 1994), pp. 7 ff.
(24)
New York Times, 6 July 1993, p. Al, A6; Time, 10 February 1992, pp. 16ff.; Economist,
17 February 1990, pp. 21–24; Boston Globe, 25 November 1991, pp. 1, 8; Dan Oberdorfer,
Washington Post, 1 March 1992, p. Al.
(25)
Quoted New York Times, 21 April 1992, p. A10; New York Times, 22
September 1991, p. E2; 21 April 1992, p. A1; 19 September 1991, p. A7; 1 August 1995,
p. A2; International Herald Tribune, 24 August 1995, p. 4; China Post (Taipei), 26
August 1995, p. 2; New York Times, 1 August 1995, p. A2, citing David Shambaugh report
on interviews in Beijing.
(26)
Donald Zagoria, American Foreign Policy Newsletter, October 1993, p.
3; Can China’s Armed Forces Win the Next War?, in Munro, “Eavesdropping on the
Chinese Military,” pp. 355 ff.
(27)
Roger C. Altman, “Why Pressure Tokyo? The US-Japan Rift,” Foreign
Affairs, 73 (May-June 1994), p. 3; Jeffrey Garten, “The Clinton Asia Policy,”
International Economy, 8 (March-April 1994), 18.
(28)
Edward J. Lincoln, Japan’s Unequal Trade, (Washington, D.C.:
Brookings Institution, 1990), pp. 2-3. See C. Fred Bergsten and Marcus Noland,
Reconcilable Differences? United States-Japan Economic Conflict (Washington:
Institute for International Economics, 1993); Eisuke Sakakibara, “Less Like You,”
International Economy, (April-May 1990), 36, who distinguishes the American
capitalistic market economy from the Japanese noncapitalistic market economy; Marie
Anchordoguy, “Japanese-American Trade Conflict and Supercomputers,” Political
Science Quarterly, 109 (Spring 1994), 36, citing Rudiger Dornbush, Paul Krugman,
Edward J. Lincoln, and Mordechai E. Kreinin; Eamonn Fingleton, “Japan’s Invisible
Leviathan,” Foreign Affairs, 74 (Mar./April 1995), p. 70.
(29)
For a good summary of differences in culture, values, social
relations, and attitudes, see Seymour Martin Lipset, American Exceptionalism: A
Double-Edged Sword (New York: W. W. Norton, 1996), chapter 7, “American
Exceptionalism—Japanese Uniqueness.”
(30)
Washington Post, 5 May 1994, p. A38; Daily Telegraph, 6 May 1994; p. 16; Boston Globe,
6 May 1994. p. 11; New York Times, 13 February 1994, p. 10; Karl D.
Jackson, “How to Rebuild America’s Stature in Asia,” Orbis, 39 (Winter 1995), 14;
Yohei Kono, quoted in Chalmers Johnson and E. B. Keehn, “The Pentagon’s Ossified
Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, 74 (July-August 1995), 106.
(31)
New York Times, 2 May 1994, p. A10.
(32)
Barry Buzan and Gerald Segal, “Asia: Skepticism About Optimism,”
National Interest, 39 (Spring 1995), 83-84; Arthur Waldron, “Deterring China,”
Commentary, 100 (October 1995), 18; Nicholas D. Kristof, “The Rise of China,” Foreign
Affairs, 72 (Nov./Dec. 1993), 74.
(33)
Stephen P. Walt, “Alliance Formation in Southwest Asia: Balancing and
Bandwagoning in Cold War Competition,” in Robert Jervis and Jack Snyder, eds.,
Dominoes and Bandwagons: Strategic Beliefs and Great Power Competition in the Eurasian
Rimland (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991), pp. 53, 69.
(34)
Randall L. Schweller, “Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the
Revisionist State Back In,” International Security, 19 (Summer 1994), 72
ff.
(35)
Lucian W. Pye, Dynamics of Factions and Consensus in
Chinese Politics: A Model and Some Propositions (Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 1980), p.
120; Arthur Waldron, From War to Nationalism: China’s Turning Point, 1924-1925
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995), pp. 48-49, 212; Avery Goldstein,
From Bandwagon to Balance-of-Power Politics: Structured Constraints in Politics in
China, 1949–1978 (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press: 1991), pp. 5-6, 35ff. See
also, Lucian W. Pye, “Social Science Theories in Search of Chinese Realities,” China
Quarterly, 132 (December 1992), 1161–1171.
(36)
Samuel S. Kim and Lowell Dittmer, “Whither China’s Quest for
National Identity,” in Lowell Dittmer and Samuel S. Kim, eds., China’s Quest for
National Identity (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991), p. 240; Paul Dibb,
Towards a New Balance of Power in Asia (London: International Institute for Strategic
Studies, Adelphi Paper 295, 1995), pp. 10–16; Roderick MacFarquhar, The Post-Confucian
Challenge,” Economist, 9 February 1980, pp. 67–72; Kishore Mahbubani, “’The Pacific
Impulse,’” Survival, 37 (Spring 1995), 117; James L. Richardson, “Asia-Pacific: The
Case for Geopolitical Optimism,” National Interest, 38 (Winter 1994-95), 32; Paul
Dibb, “Towards a New Balance,” p. 14. See Nicola Baker and Leonard C. Sebastian, “The
Problem with Parachuting: Strategic Studies and Security in the Asia/Pacific Region,”
Journal of Strategic Studies, 18 (September 1995), 15 ff. for an extended discussion
of the inapplicability to Asia of European-based concepts, such as the balance of
power and the security dilemma.
(37)
Economist, 23 December 1995; 5 January 1996, pp. 39-40.
(38)
Richard K. Betts, “Vietnam’s Strategic Predicament,” Survival, 37 (Autumn 1995), 61
ff, 76.
(39)
New York Times, 12 November 1994, p. 6; 24 November 1994, p. A12;
International Herald Tribune, 8 November 1994, p. 1; Michel Oksenberg, Washington
Post,
3 September 1995, p. C1.
(40)
Jitsuo Tsuchiyama, “The End of the Alliance? Dilemmas in the U. S.—Japan Relations,”
(Unpublished paper, Harvard University, John M. Olin Institute for
Strategic Studies, 1994), pp. 18-19.
(41)
Ivan P. Hall, “Japan’s Asia Card,” National Interest, 38 (Winter 1994-95), 26; Kishore
Mahbubani, “The Pacific Impulse,” p.
117.
(42)
Mike M. Mochizuki, “Japan and the Strategic
Quadrangle,” in Michael Mandelbaum, ed., The Strategic Quadrangle: Russia,
China, Japan, and the United States in East Asia (New York: Council on Foreign
Relations, 1995), pp. 130–139; Asahi Shimbon poll reported in Christian
Science Monitor, 10 January 1995, p. 7.
(43)
Financial Times, 10 September 1992, p. 6; Samina Yasmeen, “Pakistan’s Cautions Foreign
Policy,” Survival, 36 (Summer 1994), p. 121, 127-128; Bruce Vaughn,
“Shifting Geopolitical Realities Between South, Southwest and Central Asia,” Central
Asia Survey, 13 (No. 2, 1994), 313; Editorial, Hamshahri, 30 August 1994, pp. 1, 4,
in
FBIS-NES-94-173, 2 September 1994, p. 77.
(44)
Graham E. Fuller, “The Appeal of Iran,” National Interest, 37 (Fall
1994), p. 95; Mu’ammar al-Qadhdhafi, Sermon, Tripoli, Libya, 13 March 1994, in FBIS-NES-94-049,
14 March 1994, p. 21.
(45)
Fereidiun Fesharaki, East-West Center, Hawaii, quoted in New York Times, 3 April 1994,
p. E3.
(46)
Stephen J. Blank, Challenging the New World Order: The Arms Transfer
Policies of the Russian Republic (Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College,
Strategic Studies Institute, 1993), pp. 53–60.
(47)
International Herald Tribune, 25 August 1995, p. 5.
(48)
J. Mohan Malik, “India Copes with the Kremlin’s Fall,” Orbis, 37 (Winter 1993), 75.
الفصل العاشر: من حروب الانتقال إلى حروب خطوط التقسيم
(1)
Mahdi Elmandjra, Der Spiegel, 11 February 1991, cited in Elmandjra, “Cultural Diversity:
Key to Survival in the Future,” (First Mexican Congress on Future
Studies, Mexico City, 26-27 September 1994), pp. 3, 11.
(2)
David C. Rapoport, “Comparing Militant Fundamentalist Groups,” in
Martin E. Marty and R. Scott Appleby, eds., Fundamentalisms and the State: Remaking
Polities, Economies, and Militance, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993),
p. 445.
(3)
Ted Galen Carpenter, “The Unintended Consequences of Afghanistan,”
World Policy Journal, 11 (Spring 1994), 78-79, 81, 82; Anthony Hyman, “Arab
Involvement in the Afghan War,” Beirut Review, 7 (Spring 1994), 78, 82; Mary Anne
Weaver, “Letter from Pakistan: Children of the Jihad,” New Yorker, 12 June 1995, pp.
44-45; Washington Post, 24 July 1995, p. A1; New York Times, 20 March 1995, p. 1;
28
March 1993, p. 14.
(4)
Tim Weiner, “Blowback from the Afghan Battlefield,” New York Times
Magazine, 13 March 1994, p. 54.
(5)
Harrison J. Goldin, New York Times, 28 August 1992, p. A25.
(6)
James Piscatori, “Religion and Realpolitik: Islamic Responses to the
Gulf War,” in James Piscaton, ed., Islamic Fundamentalisms and the Gulf Crisis (Chicago:
Fundamentalism Project, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1991), pp. 1,
6-7. See also Fatima Mernissi, “Islam and Democracy: Fear of the Modern World (Reading,
MA: Addison-Wesley), pp. 16-17.
(7)
Rami G. Khouri, “Collage of Comment: The Gulf War and the Mideast
Peace; The Appeal of Saddam Hussein,” New Perspectives Quarterly, 8 (Spring 1991),
56.
(8)
Ann Mosely Lesch, “Contrasting Reactions to the Persian Gulf Crisis:
Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and the Palestinians,” Middle East Journal, 45 (Winter 1991),
p. 43; Time, 3 December 1990, p. 70; Kanan Makiya, Cruelty and Silence: War, Tyranny,
Uprising and the Arab World (New York: W.W. Norton, 1993), pp. 242
ff.
(9)
Eric Evans, “Arab Nationalism and the Persian Gulf War,” Harvard
Middle Eastern and Islamic Review, 1 (February 1994), p. 28; Sari Nusselbeh, quoted
Time, 15 October 1990, pp. 54-55.
(10)
Karin Haggag, “One Year After the Storm,” Civil Society (Cairo), 5
(May 1992), 12.
(11)
Boston Globe, 19 February 1991, p. 7; Safar al-Hawali, quoted by
Mamoun Fandy, New York Times, 24 November 1990, p. 21; King Hussein, quoted by David
S.
Landes, “Islam Dunk: the Wars of Muslim Resentment,” New Republic, 8 April 1991,
pp. 15-16; Fatima Mernissi, Islam and Democracy, p. 102.
(12)
Safar Al-Hawali, “Infields, Without, and Within,” New Perspectives
Quarterly, 8 (Spring 1991), 51.
(13)
New York Times, 1 February 1991, p. A7; Economist, 2 February 1991,
p. 32.
(14)
Washington Post, 29 January 1991, p. A10; 24 February 1991, p. B1; New
York Times, 20 October 1990, p. 4.
(15)
Quoted in Saturday Star (Johannesburg), 19 January 1991, p. 3;
Economist, 26 January 1991, pp. 31–33.
(16)
Sohail H. Hasmi, review of Mohammed Haikal, “Illusion of Triumph,”
Harvard Middle Eastern and Islamic Review, 1 (February 1994), 107; Mernissi, Islam
and
Democracy, p. 102.
(17)
Shibley Telhami, “Arab Public Opinion and the Gulf War,” Political Science Quarterly,
108 (Fall 1993), 451.
(18)
International Herald Tribune, 28 June 1993, p. 10.
(19)
Roy Licklider, “The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945–93,”
American Political Science Review, 89 (September 1995), 685, who defines communal
wars as “identity wars,” and Samuel P. Huntington, “Civil Violence and the Process
of Development,” in Civil Violence and the International System (London: International
Institute for Strategic Studies, Adelphi Paper No. 83, December 1971), 12–14, who
cites as the five major characteristics of communal wars a high degree of polarization,
ideological ambivalence, particularism, large amounts of violence, and protracted
duration.
(20)
These estimates come from newspaper accounts and Ted Robert Gurr and Barbara Harff,
Ethnic Conflict in World Politics (Boulder: Westview Press, 1994), pp. 160–165.
(21)
Richard H. Shultz, Jr. and William J. Olson, Ethnic and Religious
Conflict: Emerging Threat to U.S. Security (Washington, D.C.: National Strategy
Information Center), pp. 17 ff.; H.D.S. Greenway, Boston Globe, 3 December 1992, p.
19.
(22)
Roy Licklider, “Settlements in Civil Wars,” p. 685; Gurr and Harff,
Ethnic Conflict, p. 11; Trent N. Thomas, “Global Assessment of Current and Future
Trends in Ethnic and Religious Conflict,” in Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. and Richard
H.
Shultz, Jr., eds., Ethnic Conflict and Regional Instability: Implications for U.S.
Policy and Army Roles and Missions (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies
Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1994), p. 36.
(23)
See Shultz and Olson, Ethnic and Religious Conflict, pp. 3–9; Sugata
Bose, “Factors Causing the Proliferation of Ethnic and Religious Conflict,” in
Pfaltzgraff and Shultz, Ethnic Conflict and Regional Instability, pp. 43–49; Michael
E.
Brown, “Causes and Implications of Ethnic Conflict,” in Michael E. Brown, ed., Ethnic
Conflict and International Security (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993),
pp. 3–26. For a counterargument that ethnic conflict has not increased since the end
of
the Cold War, see Thomas, “Global Assessment of Current and Future Trends in Ethnic
and Religious Conflict,” pp. 33–41.
(24)
Ruth Leger Sivard, World Military and Social Expenditures 1993
(Washington, D.C.: World Priorities, Inc., 1993), pp. 20–22.
(25)
James L. Payne, Why Nations Arm (Oxford: B. Blackwell, 1989), p. 124.
(26)
Christopher B. Stone, “Westphalia and Hudaybiyya: A Survey of Islamic
Perspectives on the Use of Force as Conflict Management Technique” (unpublished paper,
Harvard University), pp. 27–31, and Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Michael Brecher, and Sheila
Moser, eds., Crises in the Twentieth Century (Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1988-89), II,
15, 161.
(27)
Gary Fuller, “The Demographic Backdrop to Ethnic Conflict: A
Geographic Overview,” in Central Intelligence Agency, The Challenge of Ethnic Conflict
to National and International Order in the 1990’s: Geographic Perspectives (Washington,
D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency, RTT 95-10039, October 1993), pp. 151–154.
(28)
New York Times, 16 October 1994, p. 3; Economist, 5 August 1995, p.
32.
(29)
United Nations Department for Economic and Social Information and
Policy Analysis, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision
(New York: United Nations, 1995), pp. 29, 51; Denis Dragounski, “Threshold of
Violence,” Freedom Review, 26 (March-April 1995), 11.
(30)
Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold
War (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1995), pp. 32–35; Branka Magas, The
Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking the Breakup 1980–92 (London: Verso, 1993), pp.
6,
19.
(31)
Paul Mojzes, Yugoslavian Inferno: Ethnoreligious Warfare in the
Balkans (New York: Continuum, 1994), pp. 95-96; Magas, Destruction of Yugoslavia,
pp. 49–73; Aryeh Neier, “Kosovo Survives,” New York Review of Books, 3 February 1994,
p. 26.
(32)
Aleksa Djilas, “A Profile of Slobodan Milosevic,” Foreign Affairs,
72 (Summer 1993), 83.
(33)
Woodward, Balkan Tragedy, pp. 33–35, figures derived from Yugoslav censuses and other
sources; William T. Johnsen, Deciphering the Balkan Enigma: Using History to Inform
Policy (Carlisle Barracks: Strategic Studies Institute, 1993), p. 25, citing Washington
Post, 6 December 1992, p. C2; New York Times, 4 November 1995, p. 6.
(34)
Bogdan Denis Denitch, Ethnic Nationalism: The Tragic Death of
Yugoslavia (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1994), pp. 108-109.
(35)
Payne, Why Nations Arm, pp. 125, 127.
(36)
Middle East International, 20 January, 1995, p.
2.
الفصل الحادي عشر: القوى المحركة لحروب خطوط التقسيم الحضاري
(1)
Roy Licklider, “The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil
Wars, 1945–93,” American Political Science Review, 89 (September 1995),
685.
(2)
See Barry R. Posen, “The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict,” in
Michael E. Brown, ed., Ethnic Conflict and International Security (Princeton:
Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. 103–124.
(3)
Roland Dannreuther, Creating New States in Central Asia (International Institute for
Strategic Studies/Brassey’s, Adelphi Paper No. 228,
March 1994), pp. 30-31; Dodjoni Atovullo, quoted in Urzula Doroszewska, “The Forgotten
War: What Really Happened in Tajikistan,” Uncaptive Minds, 6 (Fall 1993),
33.
(4)
Economist, 26 August 1995, p. 43; 20 January 1996, p. 21.
(5)
Boston Globe, 8 November 1993, p. 2; Brian Murray, “Peace in the Caucasus: Multi-Ethnic
Stability in Dagestan,” Central Asian Survey, 13 (No. 4, 1994), 514-515; New York
Times, 11 November 1991, p. A7; 17 December 1994, p. 7; Boston Globe, 7 September
1994, p. 16; 17 December 1994, pp. Iff.
(6)
Raju G. C. Thomas, “Secessionist Movements in South Asia,” Survival,
36 (Summer 1994), 99–101, 109; Stefan Wagstyl, “Kashmiri Conflict Destroys a ‘Paradise,’”
Financial Times, 23-24 October 1993, p. 3.
(7)
Alija Izetbegovic, The Islamic Declaration (1991), pp. 23,
33.
(8)
New York Times, 4 February 1995, p. 4; 15 June 1995, p. A12; 16 June 1995, p. A12.
(9)
Economist, 20 January 1996, p. 21; New York Times, 4 February 1995,
p. 4.
(10)
Stojan Obradovic, “Tuzla: The Last Oasis,” Uncaptive Minds, 7 (Fall-Winter 1994),
12-13.
(11)
Fiona Hill, Russia’s Tinderbox: Conflict in the North Caucasus and
Its Implications for the Future of the Russian Federation (Harvard University, John
F.
Kennedy School of Government, Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project, September
1995), p. 104.
(12)
New York Times, 6 December 1994, p. A3.
(13)
See Mojzes, Yugoslavian Inferno, chap. 7, “The Religious Component in
Wars”; Denitch, Ethnic Nationalism: The Tragic Death of Yugoslavia, pp. 29-30, 72-73,
131–133; New York Times, 17 September 1992, p. A14; Misha Glenny, “Carnage in Bosnia,
for Starters,” New York Times, 29 July 1993, p. A23.
(14)
New York Times, 13 May 1995, p. A3; 7 November 1993, p. E4; 13 March
1994, p. E3; Boris Yeltsin, quoted in Barnett R. Rubin, “The Fragmentation of
Tajikistan,” Survival, 35 (Winter 1993-94), 86.
(15)
New York Times, 7 March 1994, p. 1; 26 October 1995, p. A25; 24
September 1995, p. E3; Stanley Jeyaraja Tambiah, Sri Lanka: Ethnic Fratricide and
the
Dismantling of Democracy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1986), p. 19.
(16)
Khalid Duran, quoted in Richard H. Schultz, Jr. and William J. Olson,
Ethnic and Religious Conflict: Emerging Threat to U.S. Security (Washington, D.C.:
National Strategy Information Center), p. 25.
(17)
Khaching Tololyan, “The Impact of Diasporas in U.S. Foreign
Policy,” in Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. and Richard H. Shultz, Jr., eds., Ethnic
Conflict and Regional Instability: Implications for U.S. Policy and Army Roles and
Missions (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College,
1994), p. 156.
(18)
New York Times, 25 June 1994, p. A6; 7 August 1994, p. A9; Economist,
31 October 1992, p. 38; 19 August 1995, p. 32; Boston Globe, 16 May 1994, p. 12; 3
April
1995, p. 12.
(19)
Economist, 27 February 1988, p. 25; 8 April 1995, p. 34; David C. Rapoport, “The Role
of External Forces in Supporting Ethno-Religious Conflict,” in Pfaltzgraff and Shultz,
Ethnic Conflict and Regional Instability, p. 64.
(20)
Rapoport, “External Forces,” p. 66; New York Times, 19 July 1992, p. E3; Carolyn Fluehr-Lobban,
“Protracted Civil War in the Sudan: Its Future as a Multi-Religious, Multi-Ethnic
State,” Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, 16 (Summer 1992), 73.
(21)
Steven R. Weisman, “Sri Lanka: A Nation Disintegrates,” New York
Times Magazine, 13 December 1987, p. 85.
(22)
New York Times, 29 April 1984, p. 6; 19 June 1995, p. A3; 24 September
1995, p. 9; Economist, 11 June 1988, p. 38; 26 August 1995, p. 29; 20 May 1995, p.
35; 4
November 1995, p. 39.
(23)
Barnett Rubin, “Fragmentation of Tajikistan,” pp. 84, 88; New York
Times, 29 July 1993, p. 11; Boston Globe, 4 August 1993, p. 4. On the development
of the
war in Tajikistan, I have relied largely on Barnett R. Rubin, “The Fragmentation of
Tajikistan,” Survival, 35 (Winter 1993-94), 71–91; Roland Dannreuther, Creating New
States in Central Asia (International Institute for Strategic Studies, Adelphi Paper
No. 288, March 1994); Hafizulla Emadi, “State, Ideology, and Islamic Resurgence in
Tajikistan,” Central Asian Survey, 13 (No. 4, 1994), 565–574; and newspaper
accounts.
(24)
Urszula Doroszewska, “Caucasus Wars,” Uncaptive Minds, 7 (Winter-Spring 1994), 86.
(25)
Economist, 28 November 1992, p. 58; Hill, Russia’s Tinderbox, p. 50.
(26)
Moscow Times, 20 January 1995, p. 4; Hill, Russia’s Tinderbox, p. 90.
(27)
Economist, 14 January 1995, pp. 43 ff.; New York Times, 21 December
1994, p. A18; 23 December 1994, pp. A1, A10; 3 January 1995, p. 1; 1 April 1995, p.
3; 11
December 1995, p. A6; Vicken Cheterian, “Chechnya and the Transcaucasian Republics,”
Swiss Review of World Affairs, February 1995, pp. 10-11; Boston Globe, 5 January 1995,
pp. 1 ff.; August 1995, p. 2.
(28)
Vera Tolz, “Moscow and Russia’s Ethnic Republics in the Wake of
Chechnya,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, Post-Soviet Prospects,
3 (October 1995), 2; New York Times, 20 December 1994, p. A14.
(29)
Hill, Russia’s Tinderbox, p. 4; Dmitry Temin, “Decision Time for
Russia,” Moscow Times, 3 February 1995, p. 8.
(30)
New York Times, 7 March 1992, p. 3; 24 May 1992, p. 7; Boston Globe, 5 February 1993,
p. 1; Bahri Yilmaz, “Turkey’s New Role in International Politics,”
Aussenpolitik, 45 (January 1994), 95; Boston Globe, 7 April 1993, p. 2.
(31)
Boston Globe, 4 September 1993, p. 2; 5 September 1993, p. 2; 26 September
1993, p. 7; New York Times, 4 September 1993, p. 5; 5 September 1993, p. 19; 10 September
1993, p. A3.
(32)
New York Times, 12 February 1993, p. A3; 8 March 1992, p. 20; 5 April
1993, p. A7; 15 April 1993, p. A9; Thomas Goltz, “Letter from Eurasia: Russia’s Hidden
Hand,” Foreign Policy, 92 (Fall 1993), 98–104; Hill and Jewett, Back in the USSR,
p. 15.
(33)
Fiona Hill and Pamela Jewett, Back in the USSR: Russia’s
Intervention in the Internal Affairs of the Former Soviet Republics and the
Implications for the United States Policy Toward Russia (Harvard University, John
F.
Kennedy School of Government, Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project, January
1994), p. 10.
(34)
New York Times, 22 May 1992, p. A29; 4 August 1993, p. A3; 10
July 1994, p. E4; Boston Globe, 25 December 1993, p. 18; 23 April 1995, pp.
1, 23.
(35)
Flora Lewis, “Between TV and the Balkan War,” New Perspectives
Quarterly, 11 (Summer 1994), 47; Hanns W. Maull, “Germany in the Yugoslav Crisis,”
Survival, 37 (Winter 1995-96), 112; Wolfgang Krieger, “Toward a Gaullist Germany?
Some Lessons from the Yugoslav Crisis,” World Policy Journal, 11 (Spring 1994),
31-32.
(36)
Misha Glenny, “Yugoslavia: The Great Fall,” New York Review of
Books, 23 March 1993, p. 61; Pierre Behar, “Central Europe: The New Lines of
Fracture,” Geopolitique, 39 (Autumn 1994), 44.
(37)
Pierre Behar, “Central Europe and the Balkans Today: Strengths and
Weaknesses,” Geopolitique, 35 (Autumn 1991), p. 33; New York Times, 23 September 1993,
p. A9; Washington Post, 13 February 1993, p. 16; Janusz Bugajski, “The Joy of War,”
Post-Soviet Prospects (Center for Strategic and International Studies), 18 March
1993, p. 4.
(38)
Dov Ronen, The Origins of Ethnic Conflict: Lessons from Yugoslavia (Australian National
University, Research School of Pacific Studies, Working Paper No.
155, November 1994), pp. 23-24; Bugajski, “Joy of War,” p. 3.
(39)
New York Times, 1 August 1995, p. A6; 28 October 1995, pp. 1, 5; 5
August 1995, p. 4; Economist, 11 November 1995, pp. 48-49.
(40)
Boston Globe, 4 January 1993, p. 5; 9 February 1993, p. 6; 8 September
1995, p. 7; 30 November 1995, p. 13; New York Times, 18 September 1995, p. A6; 22
June
1993, p. A23; Janusz Bugajski, “Joy of War,” p. 4.
(41)
Boston Globe, 1 March 1993, p. 4; 21 February 1993, p. 11; 5 December
1993, p. 30; Times (London), 2 March 1993, p. 14; Washington Post, 6 November 1995,
p. A15.
(42)
New York Times, 2 April 1995, p. 10; 30 April 1995, p. 4; 30 July 1995,
p. 8; 19 November 1995, p. E3.
(43)
New York Times, 9 February 1994, p. A12; 10 February 1994, p. A1; 7
June 1995, p. A1; Boston Globe, 9 December 1993, p. 25; Europa Times, May 1994, p.
6;
Andreas Papandreou, “Europe Turns Left,” New Perspectives Quarterly, 11 (Winter 1994),
53.
(44)
New York Times, 10 September 1995, p. 12; 13 September 1995, p. A11; 18
September 1995, p. A6; Boston Globe, 8 September 1995, p. 2; 12 September 1995, p.
1; 10
September 1995, p. 28.
(45)
Boston Globe, 16 December 1995, p. 8; New York Times, 9 July 1994,
p. 2.
(46)
Margaret Blunden, “Insecurity on Europa’s Southern Flank,”
Survival, 36 (Summer 1994), 145; New York Times, 16 December 1993, p. A7.
(47)
Fouad Ajami, “Under Western Eyes: The Fate of Bosnia” (Report
prepared for the International Commission on the Balkans of the Carnegie Endowment
for
International Peace and The Aspen Institute, April 1996), pp. 5 ff.; Boston Globe,
14
August 1993, p. 2; Wall Street Journal, 17 August 1992, p. A4.
(48)
Yilmaz, “Turkey’s New Role,” pp. 94, 97.
(49)
Janusz Bugajski, “Joy of War,” p. 4; New York Times, 14
November 1992, p. 5; 5 December 1992, p. 1; 15 November 1993, p. 1; 18
February 1995, p. 3; 1 December 1995, p. A14; 3 December 1995, p. 1; 16
December 1995, p. 6; 24 January 1996, pp. A1, A6; Susan Woodward, Balkan
Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution After the Cold War (Washington, D.C.:
Brookings Institution, 1995), pp. 356-357; Boston Globe, 10 November 1992,
p. 7; 13 July 1993, p. 10; 24 June 1995, p. 9; 22 September 1995, pp. 1, 15;
Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 2 June 1994, p. A1.
(50)
Jane’s Sentinel, cited in Economist, 6 August 1994, p. 41; Economist,
12 February 1994, p. 21; New York Times, 10 September 1992, p. A6; 5 December 1992,
p. 6;
26 January 1993, p. A9; 14 October 1993, p. A14; 14 May 1994, p. 6; 15 April 1995,
p. 3;
15 June 1995, p. A12; 3 February 1996, p. 6; Boston Globe, 14 April 1995, p. 2;
Washington Post, 2 February 1996, p. 1.
(51)
New York Times, 23 January 1994, p. 1; Boston Globe, 1 February 1994,
p. 8.
(52)
On American acquiescence in Muslim arms shipments, see New York
Times, 15 April 1995, p. 3; 3 February 1996, p. 6; Washington Post, 2 February 1996,
p. 1; Boston Globe, 14 April 1995, p. 2.
(53)
Rebecca West, Black Lamb and Grey Falcon: The Record of a Journey
through Yugoslavia in 1937 (London: Macmillan, 1941), p. 22 quoted in Charles G. Boyd,
“Making Peace with the Guilty: the Truth About Bosnia,” Foreign Affairs, 74 (Sept./Oct.
1995), 22.
(54)
Quoted in Timothy Garton Ash, “Bosnia in Our Future,” New York
Review of Books, 21 December 1995, p. 27; New York Times, 5 December 1992, p. 1.
(55)
New York Times, 3 September 1995, p. 6 E; Boston Globe, 11 May 1995,
p. 4.
(56)
See U.S. Institute of Peace, Sudan: Ending the War, Moving Talks
Forward (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Special Report, 1994); New York
Times, 26 February 1994, p. 3.
(57)
John J. Maresca, War in the Caucasus (Washington: United States Institute of Peace,
Special Report, no date), p. 4.
(58)
Robert D. Putnam, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two
Level Games,” International Organization, 42 (Summer 1988), 427–460; Samuel P. Huntington,
The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman, OK:
University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), pp. 121–163.
(59)
New York Times, 27 January 1993, p. A6; 16 February 1994, p. 47. On the
Russian February 1994 initiative, see generally Leonard J. Cohen, “Russia and the
Balkans: Pan-Slavism, Partnership and Power,” International Journal, 49 (August
1994), 836–845.
(60)
Economist, 26 February 1994, p. 50.
(61)
New York Times, 20 April 1994, p. A12; Boston Globe, 19 April 1994,
p. 8.
(62)
New York Times, 15 August 1995, p. 13.
(63)
Hill and Jewitt, Back in the USSR, p. 12; Paul Henze, Georgia and
Armenia: Toward Independence (Santa Monica, CA: RAND P-7924, 1995), p. 9; Boston Globe
22 November 1993, p. 34.
(ﻫ) مستقبل الحضارات
الفصل الثاني عشر: الغرب … الحضارات … الحضارة
(1)
Arnold J. Toynbee, A Study of History (London: Oxford University
Press, 12 vols., 1934–1961), VII, 7–17; Civilization on Trial: Essays (New York:
Oxford University Press, 1948), 17-18; Study of History, IX,
421-422.
(2)
Matthew Melko, The Nature of Civilizations (Boston: Porter Sargent,
1969), p. 155.
(3)
Carroll Quigley, The Evolution of Civilizations: An Introduction to
Historical Analysis (New York: Macmillan, 1961), pp. 146 ff.
(4)
Quigley, Evolution of Civilizations, pp. 138-139,
158-160.
(5)
Mattei Dogan, “The Decline of Religious Beliefs in Western Europe,”
International Social Science Journal, 47 (Sept. 1995), 405–419.
(6)
Robert Wuthnow, “Indices of Religious Resurgence in the United
States,” in Richard T. Antoun and Mary Elaine Hegland, eds., Religious Resurgence;
Contemporary Cases in Islam, Christianity, and Judaism (Syracuse: Syracuse University
Press, 1987), pp. 15–34; Economist, 8 (July 1995), 19–21.
(7)
Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., The Disuniting of America: Reflections on
a Multicultural Society (New York: W.W. Norton, 1992), pp. 66-67,
123.
(8)
Quoted in Schlesinger, Disuniting of America, p. 118.
(9)
Gunnar Myrdal, An American Dilemma (New York: Harper & Bros.,
1944), 1, 3. Richard Hofstadter quoted in Hans Kohn, American Nationalism: An
Interpretive Essay (New York: Macmillan, 1957), p. 13.
(10)
Takeshi Umehara, “Ancient Japan Shows Post-Modernism the Way,” New
Perspectives Quarterly, 9 (Spring 1992), 10.
(11)
James Kurth, “The Real Clash,” National Interest, 37 (Fall 1994),
3–15.
(12)
Malcolm Rifkind, Speech, Pilgrim Society, London, 15 November 1994 (New York: British
Information Services, 16 November 1994), p. 2.
(13)
International Herald Tribune, 23 May 1995, p. 13.
(14)
Richard Holbrooke, “America: A European Power,”
Foreign Affairs, 74 (March/April 1995), 49.
(15)
Michael Howard, America and the World (St. Louis: Washington
University, the Annual Lewin Lecture, 5 April 1984), p. 6.
(16)
Schlesinger, Disuniting of America, p. 127.
(17)
For a 1990s statement of this interest, see “Defense Planning
Guidance for the Fiscal Years 1994–1999,” draft, 18 February 1992; New York Times,
8
March 1992, p. 14.
(18)
Z. A. Bhutto, If I Am Assassinated (New Delhi: Vikas Publishing
House, 1979), pp. 137-138, quoted in Louis Delvoie, “The Islamization of Pakistan’s
Foreign Policy,” International Journal, 51 (Winter 1995-96),
133.
(19)
Michael Walzer, Thick and Thin: Moral Argument at Home and Abroad (Notre Dame: University
of Notre Dame Press, 1994), pp. 1–11.
(20)
James Q. Wilson, The Moral Sense (New York: Free Press, 1993), p. 225.
(21)
Government of Singapore, Shared Values (Singapore: Cmd. No 1 of 1991,
2 January 1991), pp. 2–10.
(22)
Lester Pearson, Democracy in World Politics (Princeton: Princeton
University Press, 1955), pp. 83-84.
